I am far far far more worried what a corporation would do. Look at the TikTok algorithm and how good it is at hijacking our thought process. Do I need to fear it in and of itself? No. I fear the company using it to drive behaviors a certain way because it is profitable.
I think Westworld had a great version of this. They create a super intelligent computer, and they could have just as easily asked it to solve climate change as to manipulate stocks. And ultimately the machine wasn't after anything, just working on a directive. And when asked to shut down, it did. (season 3)
Thats the point here, its all about who gets to direct it, and if it is Elon Musk, I fear for our future.
But will it be AGI? No. That's a close to 0% chance, not 0 but close in the next 20 years.
Humanity is possibly about to breed home appliances that pathfind our way to greater knowledge than we could ever have gotten to on our own.
AI might hit a wall and not progress for many years. Only time will tell...
Find anyone, anywhere, who can answer as broad of a range of questions, as quickly, as well, as ChatGPT does.
No human can match any one of those 3 dimensions of performance.
AI won several years ago.
I think my answer concerns intelligence. Intelligence is the ability to solve problems.
I think that if we leave out any deadlines then the probability is 100%.
In any case, these predictions have been happening for 50 years and it's always 20 years away.
If you mean the driving portion, that falls somewhat outside the scope of an intelligence test since it relies on actually moving heavy machines in the real world.
Please tell me your definition of intelligence.
On a related note, I keep hearing that LLMs will never do X. As a teacher, I doubt that very many if any of my students can do X. LLMs may not be the perfect/God-like problem solver, but they are much smarter than anyone I work with at the community college.