This is not news from this week. Last week or even older.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-19/openai-to...
OpenAI Fundraising Set to Vault Startup's Value to $150B
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41514954
And even earlier
OpenAI in Talks for Funding Round Valuing It Above $100B
Because let's face it, that's where the money is going.
The only difference between the two is that one has a business providing a useful service to millions and millions of people.
The losses will just get bigger and bigger, and eventually there will be an appetite for retail investors to pick up the tab
A large amount of AI funding seem FOMO driven. Companies aren't seeing large returns on AI stuff, they are afraid of being left behind if somebody finds some sort of use for it.
I’m not an OpenAI fanboy but come on, credit where it’s due, they have so far been one step ahead of the competition from the start on every front.
I do research in other ML topics but I do follow the qualitative leaps they are pulling off continuously so far.
What will he spend it on?
Same category of headline...
Inference and training costs with $0 free AI models such as Llama which is good enough for AI solutions are all factors that are actually impacting OpenAI. What is not mentioned is that all these costs are quietly suffocating them whilst the company continues to suffer from a significant talent drain.
Companies like OpenAI cannot afford to continue racing their prices down to $0 and will just continue the pyramid scheme of raising billions to avoid bankrupting themselves over the said costs.
These fund raising rounds of A,B,C,D....X,Y,Z can't go on forever as these costs continue to suffocate the company. If OpenAI fails, there will be a horrific AI crash with hundreds of billions of dollars wiped out.
They just need one more set of people past them to buy it. I know lots of uninformed people that would jump on it thinking they are “getting in early”.
At this point I'd say this is a faith investment that either LLM/GenAI use is going to explode, and OpenAI is going to get a significant share of that, or that OpenAI will achieve a much more powerful and valuable AGI.
It seems corporate evaluation/adoption of GenAI is still early stages, and not at all clear who the winners are going to be if there is a lot of revenue forthcoming. How does OpenAI complete with free models from Meta, or open source ones, or pricing strategies from giants like Microsoft, Google and Amazon?
Nvidia's success in particular seemed to spawn a lot of new chip designs. Quite a few startups, but also AMD and Intel are some degree of serious with their training/inference offerings for datacenter.
At this point, AGI could mean anything, from taking the majority of people's jobs to enriching themselves and never achieving 'AGI' in the first place.
It is entirely possible that 'AGI' could be a massive lie and was all about capturing the wealth for a few people at the company.
Believe what they do; not what they say.
If nothing else, physics starts to become a limiting factor.
Obviously, it wasn't news 5 years ago, so no it wasn't then.
There is a gray area which is where professional investors who have an informational advantage make their money. But by the time something is mainstream news, that gray area is long gone.
It wasn't priced in 5 years ago, that is the point today it is priced it, people expected this. You should have bought when Microsoft invested billions in them 2019, today more investments like this are expected once these investments stop NVIDIA stock will drop since they were expected.
So saying now is the time to invest is dead wrong, NVIDIA is currently priced as if these investments will continue to ramp up so these things are already priced in. Only idiots thinks "positive event -> I must buy stocks!", no if the positive event was expected then the stocks wont move, if a positive event was expected but didn't happen then stocks go down, that is the situation we are in currently with NVIDIA.
How do you know it was priced in? You look at what people say they expect, and this is what people say they expected, hence we know it was priced in.
When AMD launched the Zen architecture, everyone said they were on the up-and-up, and the market gave them a boost. The company's shares only started to climb much higher later on, when there were irrefutable revenue numbers. There was plenty of time to buy and make money. Someone with the domain knowledge like us can definitely have an edge in the market because we understand the product well enough to formulate better odds, then we can profit off the difference between our odds and the market's odds.
Anyway I was just curious if the person had any facts on which they were basing their assessment that they could share. Seems not, which is fine. Opinions are allowed too, but I was curious since they stated it so matter if factly.
There's a sort of midwit meme here where the naive take "oh this company is going to sell more next year, i should by stock at whatever price", -> "no, everything's already priced in" -> "if everything was priced in, you'd see a historic price graph as a straight line with a slope of interest rates"
Obviously some did and they made a lot of money. So what? The market as a whole didn't.
> There's a sort of midwit
If the company grows by as much as it is expected to grow barring any external factors then yes, your "meme" certainly makes sense.
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15678587
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34881881
It was "obvious" C3.AI was not a real AI company worth much. The market still "priced in" at $18 billion for months: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AI/