What the state of the US economy can tell us about Trump's populist appeal

What the state of the US economy can tell us about Trump's populist appeal(abdurrahmanbutler.substack.com)

5 points by afistfullof 1 year ago | 5 comments

Summary. There are two take aways. First is the odds of a populist getting elected goes up as GDP growth drops. (Oddly, there is he doesn't graph GDP per capita.) Quoting:

    I found limited evidence that links macroeconomic conditions to populist electoral success. The exception to this was annual GDP growth, which, unlike inflation, unemployment, corruption, GINI or trade openness, is significantly linked to the odds of a populist being elected. In particular, a 1% increase in GDP reduces the odds of a populist being elected by 12.5%, within the next zero to five years.

Secondly, the effect is non-linear. This is important for Trump. While Trump did see a drop and GDP and Biden has seen an increase, the effect wasn't huge and those first few percentages of change don't matter much. It's big changes that see a politician's popularity get drive to remarkable highs or all time lows.

As an aside the article is unnecessarily hard to read. It could really use being put through a Readability Level calculator, and getting is score down.

rsynnott 1 year ago | |

> First is the odds of a populist getting elected goes up as GDP growth drops. (Oddly, there is he doesn't graph GDP per capita.)

Over a short timeframe, GDP doesn't generally diverge very much from GDP per capita, and raw GDP numbers are somewhat easier to source, I suppose?

keernan 1 year ago |

Under any definition of populism, how can the term possibly be applied to a billionaire promising tax relief to other billionaires?

rsynnott 1 year ago | |

Populist economics are more about marketing than anything else. Like, see Brexit. The formula is to say "we will do this thing which all economists say will be a disaster, and then everything will be wonderful - anyone who says otherwise is Project Fear". It's, well, kind of amazing that people fall for this sort of thing, but they very much do; it works.

lawn 1 year ago | |

Because that's how they market it and that's what people believe.

They'll still believe that Trump will be great for economy, despite economic experts stating that Trump's planned tariffs will sink the economy.

I found limited evidence that links macroeconomic conditions to populist electoral success. The exception to this was annual GDP growth, which, unlike inflation, unemployment, corruption, GINI or trade openness, is significantly linked to the odds of a populist being elected. In particular, a 1% increase in GDP reduces the odds of a populist being elected by 12.5%, within the next zero to five years.