The Job Market Is Frozen(theatlantic.com) |
The Job Market Is Frozen(theatlantic.com) |
Tesla and Nvidia are both huge components of the overall market cap and drive alot of the yields in the last year or two. You’re one Elon scandal or Nvidia earnings miss away from a really bad day.
Healthcare is the other wildcard. For the last decade, medical practices of all kinds have consolidated into big regional networks that are interconnected. Many of them have cash flow challenges and the fucking around with Medicare/medicaid will drive some to insolvency. My one friend in the space is planning on 30% rif in some scenarios.
Be smart. Heads down at work and start unwinding your long positions and increasing cash holdings.
My take is make a few adjustments on the margins to make your gut happier. If you scored you're a little ahead of the index. If you messed up you're not far behind.
if a few other orgs make the same decision that Microsoft did -- no more AI data centers -- then their growth looks shakey
How bad is that compared to baseline? I mean in theory all new sold houses should be sold at 100% market value to the highest bidder, and thus unsellable at 100% of the price right away.
What lines are left to cross?
https://www.thestreet.com/video/tesla-loses-1-trillion-statu...
Stock is dropping, sales are falling, Elon is losing money with his antics.
[Edit] I'm showing a 25% drop in Tesla stock vales over this month. If Tesla is a significant part of the USA economy, then that has to be pretty painful. [/Edit]
It may not be obvious to you, but the protests are emboldening people.
https://electrek.co/2025/02/24/tesla-protests-gain-momentu-w...
Not sure where you are, but here in the UK sales might not have dropped as much as other European countries but there are definitely less Tesla's around, and the conversation is towards other EV makers because people don't want to fund him.
Tesla is worth $30/share. It’s valued based on the Elon cult of personality. That’s already weakening — two years ago my previous post would have been brigaded into oblivion by Elon fans.
He’s the henchman of the most powerful man in earth at the moment, who’s infamous for betraying his henchman. There’s no bottom - literally anything could happen at any time.
IT Operations and Help Desk: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXUSTPITOPHE
Software Development: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE
Banking and Finance: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXUSTPBAFI
Hospitality and Tourism: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXUSTPHOTO
Scientific Research: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXUSTPSCREDE
Electrical Engineering is going pretty well though: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXUSTPELECENGI
All kinds of business? AFAIK that saying is/was specific to commercial real-estate, where nobody wants to admit that the valuation of the property might have gone down, and they're trying to delay and obscure it for long enough that they can pretend it never happened.
That was the exact quote in the entire games industry last year. [1][2] The tail end of the 2023 layoffs really hit the industry hard and then it never really recovered afterward. [3]
[1] https://www.ign.com/articles/survive-til-25-how-game-studios...
[2] https://www.gamesindustry.biz/how-to-survive-until-2025-in-t...
[3] https://www.ign.com/articles/game-developers-mass-layoffs-hu...
Sellers don't want to sell because most of them are sitting on less than 3% mortgage rate. If they sell and buy a new home now, they'll have to pay 7%.
Buyers don't want to buy because of the 7% mortgage rate and the drastically higher housing prices since covid.
I think the job market is very similar to the housing market. People don't want to leave because no one is hiring. New people can't get hired because no one is leaving.
Masks have fallen, it's pure barbarism now. Enjoy.
and then there are Montreal AI companies with job listings of 75K CAD ( 52K USD )
Job market is dead in Montreal
now with AI and a global marketplace -- and remote work being a thing -- the pool is deeper and cheaper.
burn an extra 3+ months and you can find the highly ("highly") skilled worker willing to take 70k to code some new stack. they may be in Croatia or Indonesia, but hey Teams works w/ different timezones...
People are trying to minimize it with comparisons to the dotcom crash or 200X market crash but the circumstances now are unique and no one knows the future.
You can try to send out some resumes and see where they go but unless you have strong pedigree, high level senior, or connections expect to be disappointed.
Ignore the articles. In the worst times of the dot com bubble burst you could still find interesting jobs. The aggregate is the aggregate and you are you. These are somewhat weird times but the companies are piling in money and will need to find ways to put it to work. AI not taking our jobs any time soon.
In the old days, one could prep while on severance. But those seem to be becoming. Less generous and in some cases being skimped on through shenanigans.
And companies in Europe still embrace home office often even in foreign countries: https://euremotejobs.com/
My relocation consultant friends said that hiring has picked up again after their slowest year in business.
At some point it felt as if half of my friends were unemployed. Some of them had their 12 months of unemployment insurance run out, or their 6-month residence permit extension after losing their job. Now a few of them found jobs, but it took them a while and interviewing was far more difficult than before.
This is just anecdata, but it feels like if something recovered from the bottom, it was in the last two months at best.
i am scanning since September... in January there was some uptick, but February is going nuts, especially last 2 weeks, nearing zero.
Here some stats of my search (around staff, principal, CTO, tech.lead, ..):
month: maybe >applied +-interview -rejects ..the rest did not respond
2024.8: 15 >10 +-1 -3
2024.9: 35 >15 +-2 -5
2024.10: 45 >25 +-2 -8
2024.11: 50 >30 +-6 -6
2024.12: 60 >25 +-3 -4
2025.01: 80 >40 +-5 -20
2025.02: 45 >25 +-0 -8
~~where-approximately~~:
local-local: 5% where i live
local-onsite: 25% elsewhere in same country
local-remote: 20%
abroad-onsite: 30%
abroad-remote: 20%
~~source-listing~~:
linkedin: 40%
news.ycombinator: 30%
local-job-boards: 26%
python.org: 1%On paper yeah but everyone I know who's applying to jobs is getting instant rejections before getting to the interview stage. Was also my experience a few months ago. The key word everywhere are "cost reduction" and layoffs and outsourcing are the norm.
>And companies in Europe still embrace home office often even in foreign countries
That's far from the norm. Most jobs (at least where I live) are in-office or hybrid. Full remote is super rare now. And fully remote from another country is usually B-2-B freelancing contracts which is not legal for one customer in all EU countries since it's considered dodging employment taxes.
Otherwise, it is hilarious to blame orange man for the current malaise. Biden provoked and escalated the Ukraine proxy war, with detrimental effects on energy prices and the world economy.
Trump seemingly tries to shut down that conflict, which would be a major boost to the world economy. Whether he'll go through with that against the powerful political interest groups is another question.
US is now buying mines and land from Ukraine for bargain price. Whatever Russia or Ukraine controls those mines in 10 years, does not really matter to US government! They will get ownership, profits and resources either way!
However yeah, places aren't really hiring. Absurdly gerrymandered roles and specific tech stacks point to probably more backrubs than hiring. Which is fine, if you want crony mcauthorized knuckledragger, take him, your product, your marketing, your teams, your contracts, and your whole history, and gtm.
It is not perfect—it misses many postings across the web. But as long as its miss rate hasn't gotten much worse over the past few years, the data presented above is still valid.
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&ge...
Maybe a small decrease over the last year.
And the easiest way to do that is to get the budget to hire a team to work under you, then you basically get an instant promotion to "leader/manager" and you offload your work to those below you while you chill "working" at home and take credit, and boom, the org somehow doubled its headcount overnight without any added productivity or innovation.
This gravy train was allowed to continue while there was an endless supply of free money to enable that added inefficiency, but now that the jig is up, the layoffs are a correction to that.
there isn't an unlimited market for talent, but there are still a shit-ton of kids coming out of CMU, MIT, or even online factories like WGU that would kill to be at a FAANG or FAANG-affiliated org.
couple years later find the top 20% and drop the rest.
it's like a junkie who is dope sick being desperate for more dope. that eases the pain in the short term but doesn't fix the problem -- real adjustments need to happen.
If your goal is to not to have a frozen market in the future, then you can do what you said.
Depends on what goal you want to achieve.
Yes, but also that only takes the price back to early November, i.e. undoes the bubble from people thinking Trump affiliation would help.
Even after that, on the basis of the P/E ratio, I wouldn't be surprised by the share price dropping 90% from today, i.e. hovering around a price of $29/share.
That needle may yet move, but it's too soon to tell. I'd expect Musk to have an explict falling out with Trump first, not merely the current state of Trump having no interest in supporting EVs.
I still expect further knocks if there are more protests, people believe it's making an impact (even if it's not) with the claims of closing stores.
And if the sabotage continues, then that would be an additional cost to Tesla to replace. I know I would feel skittish about holding stocks of a company that has a CEO who is actively reducing the size of their market.
And that's all separate from the potential Trump/Musk fallout. It could get very messy.
Indeed.
The domestic fallout for being seen as Trump's enforcer, means the next Democrat government in the US will likely find ways to terminate most or all SpaceX contracts.
Well, unless Musk has a public falling out with Trump first.
But even then, he's already too much of a chaos monkey to be trusted with security clearence for anything (including by Trump, but Trump hasn't noticed that yet).
The international fallout for being seen by international governments… best not to speculate, but there's no fundamental upper bound when it comes to actions by governments who consider him to be a threat to their interests.
Apple hasn't.
Meta is still up on the month.
What are "all stocks"?
Apple is still up on the month and the 3 month.
Apple may have dropped a bit, and I note that IBM still haven't dropped at all, but Tesla are down 25% on the month and down 15% on the 3 month.
Tesla are still performing far worse than anyone else by a wide margin by being below their previous position.
Unless by everyone crashing you mean up?