Suspicious Tesla Sales Surge Triggers Canadian Government Investigation(motorillustrated.com) |
Suspicious Tesla Sales Surge Triggers Canadian Government Investigation(motorillustrated.com) |
Very suspicious. (Dare I say "Concerning"? :p) From another source with a bit more context for those numbers:
> Tesla’s Canadian stores are company-owned and directly controlled by the company. [...] Four Tesla stores in Canada each sold an average of 30 cars per hour, amounting to 120 cars per hour across all four locations—essentially one car every minute, 24 hours a day… for three straight days. And yes, this includes hours when the stores were closed.
> Tesla’s $43.1 million in rebates took up more than half of the cash left allotted for EV subsidies remaining. That meant that by the time some other dealers attempted to get their own subsidies, the money had run out. [...] 226 [non-Tesla] dealerships submitted rebate claims for 2,295 electric vehicles but still haven’t been reimbursed, leaving them collectively out by C$10 million.
-- https://www.carscoops.com/2025/03/tesla-accused-of-gaming-ca...
This is only "suspicious" because it's fake news.
So yes it is suspicious. Especially considering that the Model Y starts much more expensive then it's competitors like the Mach E, the Ioniq 5, the EV6, the Equinox/Blazer, and Prologue. The only main advantage Tesla has is the Supercharger network and better software experience.
Whether anything comes of it or not is an entirely different matter because there are ways of doing this that do not violate the letter of the law.
First, that single weekend's 8.6k sales (if the timestamps are to be believed) are than Tesla's Canada sales for the entire prior month (Dec 2024) as well as exceeding the total for any month in 2024.
Second, even a mob of frenzied Canadians car-buyers would probably fall more-evenly across different sellers, and across more days of the month, rather than being so unusually-concentrated.
Finally, remember that the incentive program was already slated to end within another month or two, not a year later or whatever. This places limits on how big we can expect the crowd of procrastinating car-buyers to be, especially since for most people cars are not impulse-buys.
https://tc.canada.ca/en/road-transportation/innovative-techn...
Sounds like Musk being a dick - sticking it to Canada to please/amuse his boss.
The "fraud" narrative being pushed about this is because this is fake news.
The most-charitable formulation I can can come up with is something like:
"We know Musk already possesses a personal staff of unscrupulous geeks and likes to illegally stop payments. Therefore it is likely they were engaged in payment fraud here too, where the "enemy" Canadian government is hurt by stolen funds, and "enemy" car-competitors are hurt by the rebate pool being suddenly empty."
Dude, "LOL online orders exist" is absolutely the slam-dunk I think it is here.
>First, that single weekend's 8.6k sales (if the timestamps are to be believed) are than Tesla's Canada sales for the entire prior month (Dec 2024) as well as exceeding the total for any month in 2024.
Yes, happens when the government announces they're going to take $5,000 away in a few days.
>Second, even a mob of frenzied Canadians car-buyers would probably fall more-evenly across different sellers, and across more days of the month, rather than being so unusually-concentrated.
Wrong:
Tesla clearly outpased the competition, Model Y selling double what the second place competition was.
https://driveteslacanada.ca/news/tesla-model-y-leads-canadas...
Tesla was selling double of what the competition was in the same rebate program less than a year ago.
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-dominates-canada-izev-rebate...
The frenzy was due to the government ending the rebate program.
>Finally, remember that the incentive program was already slated to end within another month or two, not a year later or whatever.
You missed it, they made another announcement that it was ending within days. That caused a frenzy.
>This places limits on how big we can expect the crowd of procrastinating car-buyers to be, especially since for most people cars are not impulse-buys.
Once the end of the program was announced, the buying commenced.
No, the rebate is paid at point of sale to the purchaser of said vehicle, not to the dealership, and not to Tesla.
>So yes it is suspicious.
So it is not suspicious.
>Especially considering that the Model Y starts much more expensive then it's competitors like the Mach E, the Ioniq 5, the EV6, the Equinox/Blazer, and Prologue.
It's not that much more in price, and it's a much better vehicle than anything Ford or Chevrolet makes.
>Whether anything comes of it or not is an entirely different matter because there are ways of doing this that do not violate the letter of the law.
Nothing will come up because nothing happened. Consumers went on a buying spree because the rebate was quickly coming to a close.
https://tc.canada.ca/en/road-transportation/innovative-techn...
========================================= To get reimbursed:
Log into the ZEV application, select the selling dealership, and go to the “I want to view all iZEV requests submitted for this dealership/authorized seller.” Then search the Service Request ID # of the Eligibility Assessed request and upload the sales/lease agreement and the Incentive Received Form. Make sure that all documents are complete and include all signatures and information required.
[...]
iZEV Online Application: request status
[...]
Rebate Sent
The dealership has been sent a payment, and you'll be notified by email. This email will include the payment amount, the service request ID and the Vehicle Identification Number. Some banks may take up to 5 business days to deposit the funds into your account.
========================================
Straight from the horses mouth; the dealership is reimbursed. The buyer pays a lower out of pocket price. It makes no sense to have the reimbursement go to the owners directly as part of the point of sale. Transport Canada would need have to have electronic payment systems setup for every EV buyer along with all the privacy and financial handling headaches that such a government system entails.
>It's not that much more in price, and it's a much better vehicle than anything Ford or Chevrolet makes.
The Mach E starts at $58,000. The Ioniq 5 at $55,000. The EV6 at $56,000, the Aryia at $52,000, and the ID4 at $44,000.
The Model Y start at $65,000. It's a significant chunk of change even for middle class Canadians.
>Nothing will come up because nothing happened. Consumers went on a buying spree because the rebate was quickly coming to a close.
Maybe, maybe not. There's also ways that I could see this legitimately happening. But at the end of the day it's still highly unusual behaviour that bears further scrutiny. Also known as the being suspicious.
It is paid to the buyer, but collected by the dealership. Buyers are those who qualify to receive it. Straight from the horse's mouth:
"There is a limit to how many incentives Canadians and Canadian organizations can receive for the purchase or lease of eligible vehicles under the iZEV Program, in a calendar year: Individuals are eligible for one incentive"
"Individuals are eligible", not dealerships. Dealerships collect the reimbursement, but the individuals must qualify. If you qualify and he dealer didn't discount the car, they owe you the rebate:
"If you didn't receive the incentive on an eligible ZEV purchased or leased on or after the date listed on the eligibility vehicle list, please contact the dealership to verify if they are enrolled in the Program. If they are enrolled, they may reimburse you the maximum eligible incentive amount (this is usually reimbursed by cheque)."
https://tc.canada.ca/en/road-transportation/innovative-techn...
This is only "suspicious" because it's fake news.
> > Even then it would likely still be some variety of fraud
> This is not fraud.
The scenario they brought up of misrepresenting non-Canadian buyers as Canadians in order to take rebates from the Canadian government would absolutely be fraud.
As for your "online orders" thing, I've replied in another thread.
Glad this delusional invented scenario is not what happened.
"Falsifying sales records to receive rebates is criminal fraud, regardless of how nicely you do so."
You don't have any sources to back it up, so it can be dismissed outright.
The Canadian Automobile Dealers Association has urged Transport Canada to investigate, citing potential misuse of the rebate system. Attempts to reach Tesla for comment have gone unanswered.
The federal EV rebate program, facilitating over 500,000 electric vehicle purchases since its inception, was paused on January 13, 72 hours after the government signaled its potential suspension. Officials are now reviewing the Tesla sales data to determine if any irregularities occurred during the program’s final days.
A simple search yields https://tc.canada.ca/en/road-transportation/innovative-techn... for citations of program overview.
- "Individuals are eligible for one incentive"
- "Organizations and businesses are eligible for up to 10 incentives. Organizations and businesses that share common ownership, other than common ownership as a result of being a publicly traded company, are considered as one single organization eligible for a combined total of 10"
- "The incentive will be applied at the point-of-sale by the dealership once they have confirmed your eligibility"
The story is that Tesla sold as many cars, at four dealers in three days, almost as many as they sold in Canada in all of Q1 2024 at a time when their Canadian sales are trending down.
There are 1440 minutes in a day, they sold 8600 cars. Assuming a 12 hour dealer workday at 4 dealers. Articles say 2 cars a minute, I get one car per minute. It still they correctly process the incentives at point of sale or delivery? The investigating will find out.
The fraud also might be if anyone bought their own vehicles to sell later, or are otherwise violate the 10 rebates per organization limit and attempted to hide this.
>The Canadian Automobile Dealers Association has urged Transport Canada to investigate, citing potential misuse of the rebate system. Attempts to reach Tesla for comment have gone unanswered.
Your source and the primary source provides no proof of the supposed fraud, it simply lists quotes from pissed off competitors that didn't sell as many vehicles as Tesla, and therefore were not able to collecte the rebate.
>A simple search yields https://tc.canada.ca/en/road-transportation/innovative-techn... for citations of program overview.
>- "Individuals are eligible for one incentive"
>- "Organizations and businesses are eligible for up to 10 incentives. Organizations and businesses that share common ownership, other than common ownership as a result of being a publicly traded company, are considered as one single organization eligible for a combined total of 10"
Yes, individuals and companies qualify and the instant point of sale rebate is applied to the sale price after taxes and fees. The dealerships are not entitled the rebate on a per car sold basis, only the individuals are.
>The story is that Tesla sold as many cars, at four dealers in three days, almost as many as they sold in Canada in all of Q1 2024 at a time when their Canadian sales are trending down.
Tesla does not sell cars at dealerships. All online orders in huge areas 150 kilometers wide get tagged to these show rooms even though you cannot purchase there.
>There are 1440 minutes in a day, they sold 8600 cars. Assuming a 12 hour dealer workday at 4 dealers. Articles say 2 cars a minute, I get one car per minute. It still they correctly process the incentives at point of sale or delivery? The investigating will find out.
Four dealers doing online sales for large swaths of provinces. These "dealerships" do not have sales staff nor do they actually deliver vehicles many of the times, even though they're double as the "dealership of delivery."
>The fraud also might be if anyone bought their own vehicles to sell later, or are otherwise violate the 10 rebates per organization limit and attempted to hide this.
This wouldn't be Tesla committing the fraud then.
No matter how hard you try to rationalize it, 1,200 sales in one day at a single dealer just as the dealers become aware that the program is about to run through its' funds is suspicious.
Doubly so with a company whose lawyers argue in court you can't believe what their CEO says, that holds onto deposits for 7 years for a "coming-soon-car", and whose cars never surprises to the upside on mileage.
Had to stamp out the fake news with reality.
>No matter how hard you try to rationalize it, 1,200 sales in one day at a single dealer just as the dealers become aware that the program is about to run through its' funds is suspicious.
Facts and reality don't require rationalization. It's only suspicious if you get your news from reddit. Dealers don't qualify for the rebate, buyers do. The Canadian government announced to everyone the program was ending. It hit the news.
>Doubly so with a company whose lawyers argue in court you can't believe what their CEO says
Did you get this fake news from reddit perhaps?
>that holds onto deposits for 7 years for a "coming-soon-car
Customers can get they deposits back at any time they please.
>whose cars never surprises to the upside on mileage.
LLM hallucination?
A difference without distinction. From the financial point of view, the cheque goes from the Government of Canada to the dealership. Whether the dealership then cuts another cheque or simply discounts the vehicle $5000 is irrelevant because in either case the money has to enter the dealership's coffers.
Now AFAIK adding in the rebate directly as a discount into the bill of sale is the modus operandi of Tesla and other dealerships in Canada that were participating in the iZEV. And that's why I don't think it's impossible that this is legitimate.
If Tesla sold inventory for the previous years and applied the discounts on the bills of sale, but then didn't get around to filing the paperwork until now near the end of the rebate... well that would explain why the sudden rush to get the paperwork done when the pause was announced. Other dealerships were doing something similar and are now out of pocket for their procrastination.
Now it's a little odd to me why a company as tech savvy as Tesla wouldn't have automated the filling of the forms. But I could see that just being due to to mismanagement and potentially also why the store managers refused to comment to CTVNews when they came asking about it.
The idea that people were rushing out to Tesla's website to buy isn't impossible either but Tesla's never been shy about bragging about good sales performance. The fact that the storage lots near the Toronto or Montreal are also quite full doesn't exactly help sell that story either.
Now it's also possible that this is borderline fraud. It's only $330 to establish a numbered company in Ontario, so hypothetically if someone had $3 million or so to create 8600 numbered companies, those holding companies could in 'buy' a Tesla that qualifies under the iZEV for a $5000 reimbursement. Technically that is not illegal on it's own, and money doesn't have to flow anywhere. And actual buyers would still be buying a new car.
It's also possible that it's just outright fraud and Tesla just submitted forms for sales that never happened. There's nothing on the Transport Canada forms that require only a name of the purchaser and then a make, model, and year of the vehicle, so it'd be trivial to just put falsified information into the forms.
Whatever the reality is, it's still suspicious, and bears further scrutiny. Especially given how politically delicate government funds flowing to Tesla is right now.
It's a huge difference. Dealerships cannot just make a claim and collect the money. It's not theirs, even though they collect it.
Plus right now that's what Tesla's is one of the more believable scenarios I mentioned: : https://electrek.co/2025/04/09/tesla-canada-says-its-shady-4...
That they were rushing to fill out a backlog from sales from previous months. Not a massive rush of sales.
"The incentive is structured such that a dealership can offer a discount upfront to customers, then get reimbursed later by the government after filing for that incentive. Which Tesla points out means these are not grants to Tesla, but rather grants to Canadian customers which are then handled by Tesla."