China Can Have It All – China is currently winner of America's self-sabotage(minnalander.substack.com) |
China Can Have It All – China is currently winner of America's self-sabotage(minnalander.substack.com) |
It could still turn out well for China. It’s just that this risk should be mentioned. Otherwise it’s easy to believe that Chinas win here is inevitable.
Domestic debt (in the country's own currency) behaves differently from foreign debt.
Domestic one is the kind that is actually never paid out, unless the government does something very stupid.
China has other kinds of problems, and the article has the same kind of simplistic mercantilist view of the world that journalists seem very adept to and that the current US government is applying. So, while there are stuff to be said about them, you won't get anything of value here.
USA is alienating everyone including Canada.
So who wins that game?
(1) Chinese debt is internal.
(2) China is still ideologically communist authoritarian nation with market economy.
They can fix thing by fiat. No need to think about legal issues or respect property right. They can give X% haircut for bad debt, or freeze debt payments for 5 years for debts they think are destabilizing the economy. They don't have to give same treatment to all debt.
Demographics is the problem for China in long term, not debt.
I kind of hope that happens. China can do ok just not getting involved in the various fights as far as it can.
Well... that is: China & other parties (Europe, India, maybe Brazil or some African nations, ...). Russia's downward spiral doesn't hurt China either.
The US still needs China (read: its manufacturing base) for many things. The other way around, not so much.
you better check your popcorn is not doped.
China doesn't export agricultural stuff, the US does that. China needs to import a shit load of agricultural stuff, there is a country called Russia next to China that has a lot of such products to offer.
I'll guess English is not their native language but then I'd expect to see simplified-english, and instead I find a dense thicket
as though they think they are completely fluent, and then throw alien forms, phrases, idioms and analogies around
with that in mind, you don't need helps from the best AI to figure out that how is the winner and who is the loser.
If you think about it, the US spends enormous amounts on military, trying to protect a world order and economic stability. China is one of the benefactors of this investment. Why should China spend as much as the US when the US can spend it for them? Why should China spend/invest on so many institutions to support their own standard currency like the USD? China is the #1 owner of US bonds,they lose more than any foreign entity if the US economy collapses too quickly.
They just want control over their neighbors and obviously to be a super-power like the US to where they can influence trade partners as they wish. An America that is prosperous economically but neutered diplomatically is ideal for them.
The one thing trump did many aren't noticing too closely is that he dismantled the institutions and organizations built around spreading democracy around the world. I vehemently oppose his reasoning and intent (and just overall everything about this administration), but the result might be for the best in terms of a global balance of power and avoiding wars with China.
Taiwan is a good example and at the core of US/China hostilities, Trump isn't going to defend Taiwan, that's a given. It sucks, but if Taiwan's survival depends on WW3 breaking out if they get invaded, then their situation is already untenable. I'm convinced China will regain full control over Taiwan by the end of this decade, and without any military conflict. If the US will stay out of regional power grabs and conflicts (the Vietnam war was caused by the US trying to stop China in this regard), then I suspect there could actually be a possibility for peaceful relations with China.
Keep in mind that China isn't even competing with the US in most areas, unless the US really does want to bring back a manufacturing industry that will export to the world and compete with the China.
The main reason the US will remain an economic super power is the lack of worker protections in the US and the liberties and luxuries the rich enjoy in the US (business-friendly as they say). China in comparison is very hostile and unstable (look at what they did to their own billionaire last year) to the rich. Sad to say, but because China would rather look out for their own people, the US is still a better place not just for the rich but even for academia (lots of research funding, private uni's that do well,etc..).
Oh, and keep in mind that trump's isolationism will only work if he carriers through with threats of invading other countries. Literally every country except like Russia is turning away from the US on every front. If this was something I was reading in a history book, I would say the collapse of the US as an empire and a nation is being engineered with great efficiency. But I suspect in reality it would be more like reducing the US to the size of Germany in terms of economics and the UK in terms of military.
I hope for and would be impressed if subsequent administrations manage to prevent or even contain he cascading collapse started by this administration. I suspect it takes about 20 years for the military side of things to play out and a full generation cycle (40-50 yrs) for people to start referring to the US empire in the past tense like the USSR?
In the end, it really doesn't matter what the issues with China are. There are an endless number of points that if you bother to look into it the chinese are not peers of the US. However, the US, need an external boogeyman who appears competent to make politics work.
The republicans need an external boogeyman, the dems are very willing to create internal boogeymen.
USA provides 5x the agricultural exports as Russia. I’m sure they will fill the gap
Billionaires wants them here, not poor people.
Given poor people are more dependent on welfare and social security (having no plan B, like wealthy folks do), they should be the ones most in favor of population (and therefore economic) growth.
Which means they're doing their part to support 30% of state budgets, in addition to the businesses they're working for who are paying their own taxes.
Ergo, poor people should be in favor of any sort of immigration.