Ask HN: How is US entering war affecting your AGI timelines?

2 points by ozzyphantom 1 year ago | 4 comments

AGI timelines having been altered dramatically since the release of ChatGPT is something everyone on HN is more than familiar with. Will the US entering a potentially lengthy and dramatic war with immense uncertainty affect the onset of AGI?

I can imagine cases for AGI being sped up by the war (AGI becoming even more akin to the Manhattan Project) or being dramatically slowed (because of resources and energy wasted on war or worse...)

I'm curious what everyone thinks, are your timelines longer, shorter, or do you think AGI will be completely unaffected?

(Assume that this situation doesn't blowover in a few weeks/is swifty diplomatically resolved)

baobun 1 year ago |

Could you qualify what your definition of "AGI" is for the purpose of this thread?

Are we talking revenue targets, performance on certain tasks, metaphysical properties or something else?

Just to avoid people talking past each other as we do.

jonahbenton 1 year ago |

Unaffected, and AGI is very very far away.

ozzyphantom 1 year ago | |

Out of curiosity, do you have any numbers in mind when you say "very very far away" or just generally you mean multiple technological paradigms away?

AnimalMuppet 1 year ago | | |

I'm not the guy you're asking, but I would agree with "multiple technological paradigms away". We don't know how many, and we don't know what they are, and we don't know of any way to attack any of them yet. So that adds up to "very very far away".