1. Runaway inflation driven by unchecked bank leverage and the collapse of FED independence. Mark my words on this.
2. Cascading crises, financial and otherwise, because deregulation always ends up the same way. When government abandons its responsibility to regulate (protect), disaster follows. COVID was just one example of such systemic failure. Financial Crisis was another.
3. Structural decay of U.S. institutions -- a uniquely Trump-era risk. Once core systems are weakened, the damage can become permanent, as history shows in other countries.
4. Erosion of America’s scientific and technological edge through diminished research funding, reduced skilled immigration, and a breakdown of meritocracy.
It increasingly feels like watching the fall of Rome, with at least a 25% probability -- something even Niall Ferguson acknowledges.
Comparison with the "evils of Biden administration" feels so hollow, I feel speechless when people bring that up as an argument. It's like comparing stage 4 cancer with flu.