But, as I said, it looks like the early (earliest?) observations were actually of a school plane. Probably some concerned citizen filmed it, and the authorities didn't immediately realize what it was since figuring out the exact place of a light in the sky in a cell phone video isn't that easy.

Could it still be the Russians? Yes, I guess. But if the first observation turns out to have NOT been the Russians, to me that's a bit like how the first crop circles turned out to be a confirmed prank - yeah, technically later ones could still be aliens but given how it started doesn't that seem implausible?

Not to make a comparison otherwise, of course believing in nefarious Russians is a lot more reasonable than believing in mischievous aliens. But I'm trying to make an argument about a causal explanations and a kind of data-generating process, ... not doing too great a job at it I guess.

Thank you for the additional context. Based on this, I agree that Oslo might not actually be related.

I'm kind of lost in my understanding when it comes to Europe. To me it is very illustrative how the Wirecard guy (son of a KGB agent and is currently residing in Russia) while having access to key intelligence information of Germany - by virtue of for example informants and other intelligence services payments going through Wirecard - at the same time was openly having "safaris" with the Wagner group in Syria.

I like how people always forget to mention that the reason as to why the plane getting shot down never resulted in an "escalation" is that Putin immediately bombed Turkish troops and killed like 30 people, at which point they both basically agreed to sweep it under the rug.

A few additional points of context to consider:

- The "Turkey taught Putin" narrative is kind of BS. The leader of Turkey imprisoned the pilot who shot down the Russian jet, essentially saying he acted on his own. Afterwards, Turkey bought Russian military equipment. This reaction is the opposite of sovereignty.

- Speculation: Russia is looking to provoke Europe into responding. The thinking is to get Europe to focus on their own air defense, over assisting Ukraine. This is why the general, and correct, response in Europe is to keep calm and keep sending air defense equipment to Ukraine instead of freaking out. There of course are some lines where it is not possible to shrug it off, like recently in Poland, where the situation was so unsafe that we had to react with weapons. The most important element of Europe's security is that the Ukraine war does not end in a victory for Russia.

Edit: Formatting

Why are TL;DR's always at the end of a piece?

In Oslo a 50 year old mand was arrested and his drone confiscated.

Link:

https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/seneste/drone-ved-oslo-lufthavn

BREAKING now is additional drones over 4 other smaller Danish airports: Aalborg, Esbjerg og Sønderborg samt Flyvestation Skrydstrup.

Link:

https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/indland/droner-set-over-koebenhavn...

https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/indland/overblik-droner-over-flere...

(In Danish - Google Translate is your friend)

There is no pointer. It is an opinion consensus held widely in some narrow analytical circles. In the open China clearly stated that it will not let Russia lose. China uses Russia as a ram and the war to keep NATO, and specifically US, busy in Europe.

Mass-hysteria isn't just coincidence, it feeds off itself.

The 4 other airports were all in DK, where it's top of the news and where everyone is talking about it. Not in other countries.

Definitively not coincidence, but there are a lot of things that could cause a pattern of reported air lights - such as a warning to be on high alert looking for them, the autumnal equinox (nights are getting much darker very quickly in Denmark right now), etc.

If I was 14, a rascal up to no good, had a drone and lived close to an airport I know what I'd be doing for the lulz.

Beyond the fine, the airlines will try to get their losses in millions back from someone. If it turns out to have been a private person, there will be lawsuits. In general parents are liable for their children. When a child is old enough to fly a drone on its own, I think it will also be of partial-legal age. Acceptance of manslaughter and threat to national security is not taken lightly.