The most recent figures I've seen have the iPad at around 70% market share. There's no chance that will survive after this kind of device appears, but I would guess Apple would be very happy to own, say, the top 40% of the market while the Android OEMs bleed each other dry at tiny margins.
Witness Apple's killer execution in the laptop market - and there they've fought there way upwards from virtually nothing, whereas with tablets they're starting with the dominant ecosystem.
Losing customers to a low-priced Android tablet before they have the chance to get them on board their "mini tablet" upgrade cycle could be disastrous. Apple effectively had first-mover advantage in the 10" tablet market, but Android is solidly ahead in the 7" market with the existence of the Kindle Fire and the Nexus 7, and it's much more difficult to gain ground in that kind of market. Add in a low-price high-quality competitor and you've got a really steep uphill climb.
Do you mean that you expect the total size of the market to double, and then expect apple to own 40% of it (so they have a total number of customers which is slightly more than what they had initially) ?
Someone else can sell Kia's.
Edit: Not sure how that will work out in the tablet market, but it certainly works with cars and laptops.
Of course, even if that happens, the risk remains that, eventually, the low end stuff becomes 'good enough'. Half the quality at a third of the price will at some stage look enticing to many.
I think the point is that Apple would lose a segment of the market that generates very low margins (or zero, if > $99 is a barrier to them).
Additionally, a popular $99 Android tablet means that Android is now the bargain tablet. Other Android tablet makers will have to compete with Google, leaving Apple the high end, just like Apple currently owns the high end of the laptop PC business.
So they'll probably try to do the same thing with iPad. They aren't racing to the bottom.
What Apple should really do is put iTunes on Android.
I'm still not convinced by the tablet hype. The star trek wow factor wears off pretty quick for most people.
A $99 tablet may change that (temporarily as it's almost impulse buy pricing), but I'm not sure something of that price will have anything groundbreaking to add.
It seems pretty unlikely to me, most of the $99 tablets available on AliExpress are significantly underpowered, especially around the areas of battery and screen quality. Google haven't released a sub-standard Nexus device yet, I'm not sure why they'd do it now, when according to all the reports I've seen the Nexus tablet is doing pretty well.
1 - http://www.reghardware.com/2012/09/27/asus_rumored_to_reject...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tegra#Tegra_3
Printing the same chip on say a 32nm or 28nm process (Like the iPad 2,4) would dramatically reduce the cost.
This would also allow them to use a smaller battery and achieve the same battery life.
The major challenge is the LCD panel. It's plausible they could continue to use the same IPS screen, but using a nice TN screen is another place they could cut costs. They could also just wager that these are going to sell like crazy and work out a deal at volume like Apple does.
The other thing to note is that Google can probably afford to lose a bit of money on these, since it'll only take a few months (say, q2 '13) for them to really drop to $99. Seems like having the only $99 this holiday season is worth a couple of hundred millions (think of it as a huge advertising campaign).
Any reduction in price means a 2x reduction here due to import taxes and other stuff, so a decent U$ 99 tablet will be the first quality sub-U$ 200 tablet here.
They will also be available for direct import - you can't buy most stuff online here without paying heavy taxes, but sub-U$ 200 after taxes and shipping can be imported directly for personal use.
I will personally buy several, if this is the case (one for me, one for my gf, and some for my family members).
why didn't I just stick to iOS?
Several have resistive touchscreens, most have modified Androids that don't have Play store and don't install what you want, most have quality issues (for example my coworkers' has wifi connectivity problems), bad battery life, and overall terrible experience.
I'll gladly pay double to ensure good quality and a good experience.
Edit: aliexpress is part of alibaba (which is part-owned by Yahoo IIRC), so it's very likely what you get is similar to what I'm describing.
Edit2: browsing, it seems most do come with capacitive touchscreens now. I don't see any with free shipping, but I'm not in the U.S.
My laptop is the "work device", and I do not open it at home except if I actually need to do work. The tablet (currently Nexus 7) in the other hand is the "browsing device" that I use for reading stuff, social networking, etc. while at home or travelling.
I've been using internet tablets ever since the early Maemo days of 2006, and that has probably given me time to get used to the idea and integrate it in my daily routines.
Yes, my wife got an IPad from work and after the initial excitement, at least around my house, the "I" proves to stand for "IMDB", which is its main use.
Switched back to their old what? Tablet? So these are tablet owners who bought another tablet, didn't like the new one, and went back to their old one?
Edit: Oh, so everyone who has tried a tablet went to a laptop, either an old laptop or a new one. Thanks for clarifying :)
But I'd never try and use one to do my job.
There's a dev I know in Houston who has been charging lawyer rates for years to train corporate teams in iOS development. Perhaps some of those gigs are triggered by a C-level guy getting excited by the Star Trek wow factor and wanting the IT department to build lots of dashboard UIs for his shiny new tablet, but I really do think there are lots of such dashboard use cases for employees at all levels of an organization and a tablet makes more sense for many of these employees to use for a lot of their job functions.
The issue is that the environment and model are entirely unsuitable for software development.
There's plenty of utility in a tablet. The problem with the current low cost ones is they suck as devices. The N7 is the first relatively low cost device to change that (plus having JB). A $99 N7 would basically take off.
If it's from a well known brands I am SURE they would do a lot better - heck even Binatone (and low rate cordless phone manufacturer) was able to shift a good number of their android 'ebook reader' (I got one for £30 from ebay, OK for reading books on the tube, not for much else).
So once someone like Google, Asus or Samsung sell a well made unit that stands up to the test of daily family use, then these things ae going to fly.
99% of what I do at home with a laptop (or ipod touch) is basic consumption. These will be a welcome replacement for many users.
And the bit about "bargain" vs. "high end" presupposes there are features there that justify the distinction. A $99 tablet isn't going to have a 4G modem (though it's unclear if Apple's $300 item will either), but beyond that and its physical size the current Nexus 7 is a very feature-comparable device to the retina iPad.
Hm? Apple went over 90% share of the $1k+ PC market way back in 2009: http://betanews.com/2009/07/22/apple-has-91-of-market-for-1-...
A similar number for "total units of 15 inch laptops with 4+GB memory and discrete GPUs" (my personal guess at a "high end" definition) would tell a very different story.
There is a lot going on under the hood (literally!) that sets these cars apart.
Which isn't to say that everyone needs a Mercedes, but there's certainly nothing intrinsically smarter about a Kia over a Mercedes.
I enjoy this stuff, reading articles, stories. I don't read news papers or magazines, this is how I get my information and news.
Having actually seen the religiously-collected failure data that all manufacturers keep, I can safely say that your impression is incorrect. The budget brands suffer from substantially more expensive failures than the luxury brands, whose failures tend to be concentrated in non-critical systems (power windows vs. your transmission).
The AK-47 analogy doesn't really work here. There haven't been any "mechanically simple" cars since, what, the 80s? The main differentiator here isn't design or technological complexity, it's part selection and manufacturing rigour. So really you're talking about a hand-made M16 done up in a garage vs. a precision-manufactured M16. We're well past the age of "AK-47" cars.
I used to inspect auto parts for a factory that made ball-joints for a couple dozen different auto companies. It was a parts supplier for everything from low end asian cars to Humvees, Corvettes, and BMWs.
The part selection you speak of isn't always better. When we pulled defective parts off the production line, they were inventoried and put into storage in case the factory failed to meet their quota. When this happened, the defective parts were shipped to the auto manufacturers along with the good parts.
That being said, I agree that there's nothing wrong with owning a luxury vehicle. People have to take a look at their own finances and determine what the best decision to make is. For the average American, it is much smarter to buy a KIA, because the average American can't afford a Mercedes/BMW/etc. If a person can afford it, then good for them.
My stepfather had one with such a problem, and stopped buying BMWs after being a loyal customer for 30 years - his BMW 2002 (model, not year http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BMW_New_Class) he could service for himself, while the newer models he can't even touch.
Edit: example complaint http://www.complaintsboard.com/complaints/bmw-c127.html
Then when they finally do break down, there's like a million moving parts, and the one you have to replace is on back order for five years...
But my car isn't just a tool for me. It's a source of enjoyment. I love driving. And I love driving my car. Really, I love it. I would buy an Audi A4 in a second if I could afford it. If you're only judging based on one axis (reliability), you miss a lot of what goes into the purchase a vehicle. Just because it's your most important criteria, it's not mine.