How Russia keeps raising an army to replace its dead(politico.com) |
How Russia keeps raising an army to replace its dead(politico.com) |
Which means there are about 15M of those that can be conscripted (removing those already in uniformed services of various sorts, mentally ill, disabled, busy in critical industry or government, or too criminal) and it means that a loss rate of 5x current is required to make the war demographically unsustainable for Putin.
When this is done though, in 10 years he will realise that he can't reach for any other demographic - those over 50 now will be over 60 and certainly unfit for duty, and the number of kids turning 18 each year will be falling off a cliff.
Question is how to increase the loss ratio by 5x. Certainly it can't be done on frontline alone - long range drones should hunt down people deep in Russian territory.
Let's face it: Russia can't stop, their whole society is war-oriented and stopping means catastrophe even if they stop by winning.
Even more importantly, everyday Russian, living in a petrostate economy, always felt redundant and useless because he knew Putin doesn't need him: he's little but an extra mouth to feed, wholly dependent on Putin's kindness. In the last 4 years, for the first time ever, Putin needs everyday little guy because war isn't going to win itself and just Chechens are not enough. They are legitimately afraid of being pushed back into irrelevance if the war ever ends. So are naturally interested in continuing regardless of how well it goes.