Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2026? What are your predictions for this coming year? |
Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2026? What are your predictions for this coming year? |
2. Some kind of extreme US constitutional crisis.
3. Putin will remain in power, but Russia will be struggling dramatically to keep funding the war as Ukrainian attacks keep chipping away at oil and gas exports.
4. At least one new major AI breakthrough.
5. Several more countries virtually collapse
- Major breakthroughs in robotics research thanks to ultra scalable simulation software and RL
- AI will become even more useful in daily life
- New drug discoveries or successful stage 3 clinical studies related to / similar to GLP-1. Also in longevity research.
- Renewables will get even cheaper
- Creators will thrive with all the new AI tooling
- Government services will become more digital (at least in Germany)
- The war between Ukraine and Russia will end
- Interest rates continue to fall, causing an uptick in housing buildup
- The EU finally takes a harder stance against uncontrolled migration with concrete measures that will bring numbers far down.
Negatives:
- Societal loneliness will continue to accelerate
- People will use their brains even less, thanks to more widespread LLM use
- the Nazi party in Germany will become the majority in two states (but won't be able to govern them)
I was hoping that plumbers, electricians, construction, factory workers still had another 10-20 years before being priced out of the work pool.
I was also hoping we had that much time to use threat of mass protest to keep our politicians aligned.
I genuinely think it's game over for 99% of humanity's interests once the top wealthiest individuals and/or their governments can simply deploy robots en masse.
Lots of new subreddits have been popping up this year, in different languages, that are flooded with AI generated rage and engagement bait posts. Facebook is feeding boomers with the same kind of slop.
We will see the repercussions of this on society.
Western world will face a new generational war to uphold democracies.
Ai bubble pops and causes turmoil in the economy, software jobs will be back.
I get swole. In bank account and muscles.
LLM progress will platoue.
- New major armed conflict starts.
Space
- Artemis II succeeds.
- Starship makes first fully reusable orbital flight.
Other tech
- One of the fusion startups demonstrates net energy.
- AI bubble pops, OpenAI gets acquired by Microsoft.
Someone is busted falsifying a race horse’s pedigree to hide use of a cloned sire.
Entropy increases
Putin dies, significant palace intrigue follows, but the war in Ukraine continues on unfortunately.
- US goes on the offensive on tokenization moving bonds, stocks, transfers, etc. to the blockchain. China opens up its eCNY to the grand public.
- AI bubble pops. Companies decide that LLM-coding is not worth it after accounting for the downsides. LLMs for generating photos and videos are still not good enough. OpenAI goes the way of pipedpiper.
- The war in Ukraine remains unresolved. Russia advances but only marginally. Europe still shaking its head about what to do. US lower its involvement.
- The US world cup goes very badly. Like embarrassingly bad. Goes okay in Canada and kinda okay in Mexico though.
- China invades Taiwan in the last month of 2026.
Zelensky will be replaced as Ukraine's leader and Ukraine as a whole will switch back to Russian control, moving the new front line to other former Soviet states and Poland. Also, all of the weapons provided to Ukraine will begin pointing at Europe instead of Russia
China will begin blockading the islands around Taiwan, leading to a blockade of Taiwan itself. Odds are there will be a peaceful reunification with China instead of a war.
Maduro will be overthrown in Venezuela and is all being used as leverage by the U.S. in its negotiations with China and Russia
The GOP will retain control over the House in the upcoming Midterms
A large labor reduction in many high paying jobs, such as tech, due to higher productivity provided by AI. In normal times, this would cause a kind of deflation to balance everything out. Due to the pending economic crisis, the Govt will spend even more money to try to maintain the current system, leading to more inflation.
The cost to service the current debt will be used to justify a large reduction in Federal Govt agencies and services.
The Atlas comet will not be an alien spacecraft
The public will learn more about the extensive surveillance state and be less approving of it.
The Epstein files will be a big nothing burger.
It's not even 2026 and this one has already started to happen...
not this dress up and cosplaying being done - like the economy is growing - while it's actually shedding jobs, homes ain't selling cz there ain't buyers
AI bubble will start to pop (even though the adoption continues to improve slowly).
US / Europe separation will accelerate.
EDIT: For the first 2 - it's the 3rd year I'm thinking it will be 'the' year...
They're called bubbles because they don't "start to pop". It's sudden and sharp.
Elon Musk gets richer
Europe anti-woke grows
Coffeezilla (and me too right now) basically shout that its like a health app tried to give you junk food off the back alley basically
But I feel like these trends will continue to grow, I was partially interested in stablecoin markets and it seems that apps like paypal,venmo,cash app etc. would essentially just stand back as stablecoin and so there are chances that these financial superapps will do these too in the near future
There would be more emphasis on removing VPN's in countries. I feel like UK (and in extent other countries too) will have some influence on gatekeeping their populations from websites who dont comply to their arbitrary rules and VPN's being the last hope for many, I feel like a real crackdown on it is gonna come in 2026
I feel like centralization and extremism might continue slipping up in 2026 too perhaps. To me I just feel like we see things and this illusion that there are many players in any marketplace but it does feel like they are centralizing (some major tech apps, some major finance apps etc. which will influence a lot of average person's opinion) and we just saw something similar happen to dram prices which i also think wont really reduce even in 2026
I am seeing people fed up with centralization and big tech and more interested in homemade-alike solutions/created by normal people. Projects like clippy and others have made more people aware of such things and I think it will continue in 2026 when more people see this real "AI tax" of increasing prices of hardware
Centralized finance and decentralized finance (although I dont appreciate crypto) feel to me would kinda converge on stablecoins and then merge/already are merging and In my opinion the company with more ties to centralized finance could win. Tech and finance seem to me would have more coupling on a rate similar to 2025.
The AI bubble has chances of popping in 2026 but I am not sure about it but that being said, its a matter of when, not if in my opinion. But if AI bubble does pop, I feel like finance and tech would decouple most likely because it seems to me that if an offer as lucrative as "AGI" for the financial investors failed in their eyes, they would stray away from real tech businesses who make real life problems much easier but wont have the lure/lucrativeness if the bubble pops up
Else, we are gonna see the same thing where people will slap AI over anything to get funding. I do feel like if AI bubble pops then the companies who picked AI hype when there was no need might be shamed for it but It never really happened in the crypto space because those companies went straight to AI after crypto so I think we would need some time in between after AI bursting and another hype to give people some time to think what really happened and the scale of it if it does bursts.
Chinas market power will continue grow around the globe. There might be some issues with there economy but they will increase exports in all relevant inudstries.
The Solar revolution in Afrika will continue, driven by even cheaper chinese goods. It will be a story around the globe how much Afrika is changing.
CATLs Sodium Batterie will reduce prices of energy stores to a new unexpected low. Cheaper faster than expected driving further some success stories.
Germany (were i'm from) will continue struggling and it will get worse for the automotive sector (especially for the suppliers).
Due to economic issues in germany, the far right nazi party AfD will continue winning a few more % points.
Some car maker will bring a relevant cheap globally available EV car. I suspect BYD, which will increase public awareness of germans automotive sector or automotive around the world. Automotive will start becoming a commodity. Revenue per car will go down.
Climate will see some new record. Either more and stronger storms, more heat or/and more flud rain. We will talk about it temporarily and then continue going back to ignoring it.
= USA vs. the rest of the world:
Stuff will continue as shitty as they are. Companies will not compensate the inflation americans have seen so they continue to struggle.
There will be 2-3 attacks on public figures. If the economy will continue downwoards, potentially also some CEO or very well known Rich Person (Musk, Suckerberg, Bill Gates (after Epstein files), Jeff Bezos)
Epstein files will come out, but due to every public media playing it down and no one caring anymore about it anyway (we all know, he is dead, Maxwell might get out of jail) and it will not lead to a coop. I will learn the full extend of Bill Gates affairs and will strike him from my list of people i thought have a positive story arc.
Republicans will lose Midterms harder than usual/landslide style.
Conflict between Trump and the house and senate then this will lead to either Trump doing more golfing or further sliding of the USA in an authoritarien direction. The only issue here is, Trump is to old and fragile, he couldn't care less about his power because he just does what he wants anything but he can't come up with a more elaborate "USA Trump Corp" strategy to take really over. While in parallel authorian stuff depends on a person and there is no one really there. Vance? No way.
Hey lets bet on Vance and the wife of the Kirk guy coming together and the republicans liking it that much but no i don't think this will play out.
Obama Care's budget cut might be a trigger point for something.
Russia:
Russia will continue influencing US Politics, but economy will continue going down. We are coming to the magic 5 year mark, Ukraines strategy attacking russian oil is working but Russia is Russia, people can suffer there.
Derek Huffman will die.
AI:
AI will continue growing. Progress will still be seen in a lot of different areas. Nvidia will focus on increasing production and will see another Hit with Rubin. We might see some very special new thing. Perhaps material science discovery, mathematics or generall so much better LLMs.
It will continue affecting jobs around the world. Especially in fields were GenAI is already really good. Arts. There will be more AI music on Radio and in the Top Charts. GenAI for images will continue reducing jobs for 2d and 3d, advertising, texting, translations.
Robots will continue progress and impress us.
Luigi:
He will get lifelong prison sentence :(
Musk:
SpaceX will be a successful launch, while Tesla struggles in car sales, he will continue hyping and overshadowed through SpaceX, Tesla will not fall yet. The Selfdriving thing will kill someone, his robot will not be ready.
GTA 6 will be out and it will be awesome!
I think I really like risc-v but I saw the performance and I am doubtful about this, so I am interested if you have any evidence/resources that I don't know of to back up this claim
My 2026 prediction is that people will continue running websites and buiding web apps that need monitoring, more than ever before.
Maybe too obvious but more and more interesting new robots will hit the market and robotics as space will become considerably legible.
Probably going to start to understand how different types of models scaled capabilities will play off of each other when architected together (MOE+).
Non-tech people are going to start having the model welfare conversation more generally.
Apophis gets closer.
* Oral GLP-1s hit the market and the market shares doubles
* Both OpenAI and SpaceX IPO
* Charlie Kirk's shooter will be executed after being on death row for less than a year. 50/50 chance that it's televised.
* Luigi is also executed
* Seattle causes an international incident with Egypt and Iran when they don't reschedule the Pride Parade to not be on the same day as the world cup game. Trump sends in the troops.
This happened, it was called the Chevy Volt. Nobody bought it.
Chevy made it about as fuckin’ unattractive as they could manage,
AND THEY WERE STILL GREAT CARS.
You can buy them at the right price even today, and people have been adding range to them.
More job interviews having a step to prove you can do it without AI, even at roles that expect you to use AI.
OpenAI will be on the front page of Reddit for how bad/annoying its ads are (There was already a popular post about it from someone in a test group).
- Current LLMs being seen more and more like commodities
- We'll start see a LOT more companies making their own LLM
- Capital stops pretending everything is fine & we finally see the stock market reflect what's been slowly bubbling up socially (people 'feeling poorer', trust declining, consumption becoming more cynical)
I'll correct my take then: due to this, the epidemic of loneliness will start to surge like never before. This might pave the way to some reaction in the public opinion, but real concrete actions will not happen in 2026, I would rather expect them around 2028 or even 2030.
The Supreme Court rules against Trump in several important cases (tariffs and birthright citizenship, and a couple of others).
Trump threatens to arrest at least one big tech executive.
LLMs continue to improve, but the rate becomes slow enough that most people realize that AGI is not just around the corner.
While 'substantive' would mean major progress within the current framework, I’m predicting a shift that subverts the current foundational assumptions of robotics.
Right now, we treat time as a secondary sequence—an 'add-on' to 3D space. Moving to a unified spacetime architecture isn't just a big improvement; it fundamentally undermines the discrete-frame logic that almost all current CV and RL models are built upon. It’s 'subversive' because it requires us to unlearn the way we’ve been processing motion for the last decade.
US improves relations with China.
Climate problems are shown to be less serious than previously thought.
The rich get richer, but nobody cares because quality of life is improved for everybody.
AI brings additional leisure time, which results in a worldwide resurgence in bluegrass music as millions take up the guitar, mandolin and violin. The biggest surge is in banjo, though. Billy Strings leaps ahead of Taylor Swift in concert sales.
2026 is really looking up! Happy New year, Hacker News!
I do feel like 2026 would be like 2025 but just a little better maybe or little worse.
Its already happening but I believe it will accelerate in 2026 especially with the Fed turning the money-printers back on. Inflation is sure to increase :-/
Grow a garden everyone. Just do it.
The US stock market will see a correction (and possibly a crash) due to it being generally overvalued, LLM advances unproven for most enterprise contexts, and premature investment in infrastructure. Other stock markets will be dragged down because everything is correlated these days.
Building software continues being commoditized, putting downward pressure on salaries. Software quality diminishes due to prioritizing speed and using LLM output.
Billionaires continue taking control of media companies and continuing using them to influence public thought and discourse. Big budget media production companies show no signs of newfound creativity or risk taking and continues producing remakes, sequels and prequels within existing franchises.
Many people have further diminishing mental health due to a severe value crisis and lack of human connection.
The neurological, cardiovascular and long-term consequences of repeated SARS-CoV-2 infections become better known and understood. But nothing is done to prevent further damage.
Flock and other government tools for watching and controlling you will expand.
Big companies will expand their regulatory capture, especially in medical care. Fingers will continue to be pointed at health insurance as the problem while the real problem of an artificially limited supply of doctors goes unaddressed.
Government agencies will continue their slow bloat as no mechanism exists for government like bankruptcy in the private sector.
Patent trolls will expand their lawsuits and extort more legitimate businesses.
The far left will assassinate more Republican leaders.
It might not be AGI, it might not be able to do everything everyone could do, but it'll be enough that you can fire most of the people on your team and just use a few to guide the AI. And I think that's gonna tighten things up in the job market even more. Hopefully it leads to more job creation and it empowers people to compete with one another based on taste and individuals to compete with organizations. That's the best-case scenario I see.
Later, LLMs will be portrayed as something evil, yet everyone will still use them. Parents will use them, while telling their kinds not to do so.
Leetcode is already standard for SWE interviews, but other industries will need to adopt similar tests to verify that an applicant's brain is functioning correctly and that they're capable of doing the job. Maybe a formal confirmation from a psychologist specializing in 'fried brains' will be required.
My knowledge and engineering has only gone up over time. I read significantly more and higher quality technical information and need to debug problems significantly harder.
I think AI will in general make everyone a lot smarter. Maybe the people who use AI as a companion will melt? I'm sure there's some kind of repetitive addiction loop that could melt your brain just like anythibg else though.
And it's like that for many things. Complicated Git commands that I rarely need. I used to remember them at least 50% of the time, and if not, I looked them up. Now I just describe what I need to Copilot. But also APIs that I don't need daily. All that stuff that I used to know is gone, because I don't need to look it up anymore, I just tell Copilot or Claude what to do.
The chasm between proactive vs lazy people is growing exponentially. I predict it will bring a lot of drama.
Just people like you.
There are other types.
I'm not sure myself.
I do know that television feels about as deep as a puddle for me. Literature a bit less so. I suspect there is something to this.
AI stays the top story but in a boring way as novelty wears off and models get cheaper and faster (maybe even more embedded). No AGI moment. LLMs start feeling like databases or cloud compute.
No SpaceX or OpenAI IPO moment. Capital markets quietly reward the boring winners instead. S&P 500 grinds out another double digit year, mostly because earnings keep up and alternatives still look worse. Tech discourse stays apocalyptic, but balance sheets don't.
If you mute politics and social media noise, 2026 probably looks like one of those years that we later remember as "stable" in retrospect.
Bonus: Bitcoin sees both 50k and 150k.
I love this, we focus way too much on the apparent chaos of daily life. Any news seems like a big wave that announces something bigger and we spend our time (especially here!) imagining the tsunami to come. Then later, we realize that most events are just unimportant to the point we forgot about them.
- 2025: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42490343
- 2024: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38777115
- 2023: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34125628
- 2022: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29746236
- 2021: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25594068
- 2020: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21802596
- 2019: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18753859
- 2018: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16007988
- 2016: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10809767
- 2015: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8822723
- 2014: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6994370
- 2012: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3395201
- 2011: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1970023
Value of experience will grow - compounding this will be less opportunity for junior people to get that experience so they will be increasingly (and rightly) frustrated.
The opportunities to have a successful career as a salaried employee decline significantly - people are pushed to start small businesses out of necessity - and this barrier is lower due to AI.
A flurry of new dev tooling companies start up re-packaging software development processes and concepts into a more user friendly package that allows software development to go even more mainstream to accommodate this.
I saw my neighbour here watching shorts about fat americans abusing all you can eat restaurants, generated by AI, for 7 days in a row now, whenever he is awake. He is 45 years old and wants to show me the funniest ones.
- Multiple interest rate cuts instead of 1
- News about prosecutions for insider trading on Polymarket.
- Bitcoin will touch a multi-year low. MSTR becomes insolvent.
- Google Gemini will overtake ChatGPT in DAU.
- Software will be more commoditized and the authors’ “taste” will become its primary differentiator.
- Fiserv will increase 50% or more in market cap (I said the same thing last year about PayPal, and I was wrong)
- Warren Buffett will pass away. (I hope I’m wrong) :-(
- Google will drop the price of Gemini Ultra to $125 a month or less, Anthropic and OpenAI will follow suit.
- Logitech will start making a dedicated vibe-coding microphone-whatever that means.
JPEG-XL or AV2 with AVIF. I still dont believe AV2 would be a better technology. But regardless we need something better than JPEG. And WebP wont cut it. Arguably JPEG-XL isn't good enough either but we have to take what we have.
LLEVC + EVCv2, VVCv2, AV2, or H.267 early release. We need better video codec. H.264 High Profile is still 70% of all video usage. May be LLEVC could be a decent alternative if the recent testing showing 60% bitrate reduction were accurate.
Apple please open source your AAC-LC Encoder. It has been 10 years since you last update it and the release before that was 5 years so we are nearly 16 years since you last touched on it.
Battle of OLED and RGB LCD. It has been a long time since display technology was this exciting. We have Tandem WOLED and RGB OLED, battling RGB Mini LED and SQD - Mini LED. Both will drive quality and price improvements.
Safari - Please fix your multi Tab ( 10s to 100s of tabs ) issues. There are too many to even list but just copying 80 of what Firefox is doing is more than enough.
Oracle release ZFS, MySQL, Solaris and dTrace into certain foundation. With their licenses changed to BSD.
Bring back old 1.5mm typing distance keyboard on Laptops.
HyperScale Cloud competition. I still dont understand why all Cloud are so expensive. And dedicated server are not promoted enough.
I really feel "web dev" is going to get highly commoditized by GenAI, by web dev I mean 99% of building CRUD-adjacent apps, we are already seeing it now with tools like Claude Code etc, this pipeline is just going to get more refined, with tigther testing feedback loops, PR-workflows and a CI/CD deployment pipeline which the GenAI will control. This might be amplified by the fact the sheer amount of tested, high quality there is in the JavaScript-ecosystem for the AI to train on and learn from.
Software engineering in general will tend more systems and embedded software, fields where GenAI can't perform well or can't be trusted to produce good code (I am thinking writing device drivers, or maintainence of legacy C applications) as well as deep research fields. The average software engineering job might be either that of a "technical product manager", or "researcher" or "low-level systems expert"
That's just what I feel. Honestly, I am probably much younger an others on this forum, so I haven't really seen this industry "evolve" this is just how it looks to me now. I believe there was a time in the early 2010s where there was a boom of this "generalist developer" where if you knew your JavaScript-ecosystem (or App Dev ecosystem for that matter) pretty well, you could land a pretty decent job right out of college, or without a college degree at all.
To me, at this stage the world in general needs software engineers who understand the "world" if that makes sense (in terms of physics, mathematics), or who have a really good mental model of computation. Better put, software engineering will become a tool in the larger context of research & development of tech that advance humanity.
For this principle to become widely known, it needs to be communicated in a more succinct way. 400 pages is too much to ask people to invest.
Even so, as far as I understand the gist of what the paper says, the principle helps make explicit some intuition I’ve had about design for a long time.
Commonality and Variability in Software Engineering by James Coplien et al. pdf at - https://www.dre.vanderbilt.edu/~schmidt/PDF/Commonality_Vari...
How ominous
I'm keeping that prediction for 2026 from a late 2024 thread:
any international trades happening in non-US dollar is an "acceleration" of dedollarizatiom, given that currently all trade is dollarized.
Original:
I don't known if I understand the spirit of the question. There are no metrics or tracking of how "dollarized" the international economy is because virtually all trade is done in dollars and there has been no risk of this changing for the past ?65? years
My original prediction for 2026 (not 2025, mind you) made in 2024 was based on a few factors, if I recall correctly, 1) the Russia-Ucraine war and related sanctions; 2) the open discussion in BRICS about trade in direct currencies; and 3) the then-promised isolatonist policies of Trump's second mandate.
What we've seen in 2025 makes all of those stronger I guess.
1) I don't know the status of the Russia-Ucraine war; all I know is it is a glaring sign of the end of Pax Americana (as is the Israel-Palestine genocide/war, by the way, which the US would -not- have allowed given the strong internal opposition and negative popularity among the American public). So sanctions of Russia notwistanding, that status quo, which strongly related to dollar as reserve currency, is either agonizing or dead.
2) Trump and the US attempted a very strong response to the (first ever?) trades in local currency between Brazil and China, mostly in the form of targeted tariffs (all discourse about Bolsonaro and whatever being the motivation for tariffing Brazilian imports being, in my opinion, political smoke and mirrors). I don't think it worked. I think BRICS might press on this. If the mercosur/EU trade deal goes through it will also be a strong force towards trade in Euros/Reais/Pesos directly I believe.
3) I don't think I need to clarify; tariffs and other issues brought on by the current US government were severely negative to the placement of the US as a preferred trade partner. This is to beyond economic choice; active anti-american sentiment are at all times high in countries like Canada, Denmark, and Mexico, all historically aligned with the US. This may not seem that relevant but come election cycles in those and other countries we might see platforms/candidates that openly propose to "secede" from the US hegemony international order. If that happens, removing US military bases is a first go. Alternatives to the US "petrodollar" a close second.
AI (especially LLMs) will likely stay top-of-mind in 2026, but I expect costs to drop meaningfully and capabilities to feel more “infrastructure-like” rather than magical. SME Adoption will drive the AI to masses.
If AI doesn’t meet near-term revenue and productivity promises, we may see pressure or stagnation in tech valuations, even as the underlying technology continues to improve. In other words, the market may cool before the tech does.
On the macro side, I wouldn’t be surprised if we see more market stability or mild declines, driven by a re-rating of expectations rather than a systemic collapse. Capital might rotate from speculative growth into cash-flow-positive businesses that actually deploy AI profitably.
More broadly, I think 2026 will reward: reliability over flashy innovation in AI , Engineering depth over marketing narratives, Systems thinking over isolated “features”
Less “what’s possible?” and more “what actually works at scale?”
The core issue is structural: most cryptocurrencies depend on foundations that fund development, marketing, and operations through large token holdings. When prices fall, these entities eventually become forced sellers. At some point, their “whale power” is not optional but necessary to survive, creating persistent sell pressure and undermining long-term trust.
Bitcoin likely has a longer lifespan than most alternatives due to its lack of a foundation, fixed monetary policy, and social inertia. Over time, it may absorb whatever residual trust exists in the broader crypto space. However, that does not imply indefinite relevance: Bitcoin could survive while gradually becoming economically marginal, not dead, but increasingly negligible outside niche use cases.
I do feel like it would be centralized finance which would run stablecoins and not defi/crypto companies which would connect with/partner with centralized finance in my opinion tho.
Or as I said in that comment, the rise of finance superapps like coinbase so I feel like their stablecoins might be more of influence but either way, I do feel like its going to be extremely hard for people to enter the stablecoin market basically.
- US starts a digital services trade war with the EU. It starts out with tariffs on digital services provided to the USA. EU responds in kind. Google Cloud, AWS and Azure lose a lot of clients over this, but they mitigate the damage by restructuring their business to avoid the tariffs. The tariffs don't achieve any policy change in the EU and eventually settle on a tolerable level.
- Significantly more restrictions and tightening on the US Visa Waiver Programme, with a small chance that it is rescinded altogether. VWP beneficiary countries threaten to retaliate in kind, but never do, because US tourism is too valuable.
- China continues to overtake the USA in growth in tech and digital services related exports. FVEY gets very nervous about this, but in practice nothing is done because of strong consumer demand.
- Coreweave faces solvency issues and numerous AI companies fundraising are forced to do their next raise at a down round.
- AI job loss is revealed to not actually be real. The cause of unemployment really is finally realized to be economic uncertainty caused by high inflation, interest rates and international trade policy uncertainty. Potential digital services tariffs and AI boom collapse make the situation much worse.
- Significantly more momentum behind the HIRE Act, with a small chance that it passes. If it does, tech giants close their EU/UK/Canada/Australia offices and move the roles to India.
- Russia / Ukraine "peace deal" is signed, but will be broken by Russia based on some false flag. Russia's invasion and occupation of Ukraine unfortunately continues, but doesn't progress.
- MAGA aligned actors interfere in the election of another country.
- USA conducts a "special operation" in Venezuela.
- Weaponized AI generated disinformation and fake audio/video/images starts to become more common. A major news story will break based on AI generated disinformation. It will be disproven quickly, but not before it has had a chance to spread.
1. Bazel is still not widely used outside of massive monorepos. (because its such a pain to use)
2. Solar power will surpass wind power in the US to become the 4th largest source of electricity. https://eia.languagelatte.com/
3. Starship begins launching real payloads, achieves reusability of the upper stage, and successfully does a ship to ship fuel transfer.
4. Tesla stock has a major correction (>20%) as it becomes increasingly clear that Waymo, Zoox, AVRide, and various Chinese companies are significantly ahead in AV technology. And as it becomes clear that Optimus is a sham.
Chinese will always be irrelevant to the US car market as both political parties will block chinese vehicle sales on (valid) national security grounds.
Uber and Lyft stocks crash as markets realise the game is up - nobody can compete with Tesla who can afford to burn excess spare factory capacity driving cars directly off the line to start picking up passengers. Waymo might have good AI but can't possibly compete with Teslas unit economics.
Fsd is fantastic and works everywhere
But let's just say you have to prepare for 2030. The future of jobs report 2025 by the WEF is also reporting that 40% of employers are planning to reduce their workforce because of AI by 2030. [1]
If they go down the route of automating as much as possible, it'll destroy the social pipelines that allow companies to reproduce themselves.
I don't think that'll actually happen, but it'll be interesting to watch
fortran in 1955, cobol in 1965, visual basic in 1993, delphi in 1995, visualage in 1998(?), Power Automate in 2022, vibe coding in 2025...
Would there be any changes because I feel like a lot of junior talent isnt picked because of AI but I feel like given a long enough timescope, AI bubble will burst and so taking that into account, what would you say about the job market?
All the current crop of AI does is it makes the job of some people easier and allows some others to level up faster in terms output. If managements are going to be stupid enough to destroy the human side of the business, then they are only setting themselves up to spend much much more hiring the right people in the future.
I don't think companies will suddenly turn over a new leaf and start hiring juniors like they were in 2020. Even if they tried, within 2 or 3 years they won't be able to as easily.
Fewer people will major in a field where there's some shrieking news headline every 5 seconds about how it's going to get automated out of existence. And the candidate quality will go down, since why bother leetcoding or reading a bunch of textbooks to upskill if there's no ROI associated with it.
If I was an undergrad right now, I totally wouldn't. And I wouldn't have read all of the books that I suffered through to develop understanding. Choosing a major is just betting on the future.
US democracy fundamentally breaks (more).
Substantial global turmoil directly resulting from US losing it's way. Will take time for an alternate order establishing itself in that void.
- AI will innovate towards visuals, personality, and tool use. AI tool use will start to innovate past just reading docs, maybe into more things like gaming and robotics.
- Some AI products (not necessarily LLMs) will start competing on latency. Notably on voice/calls, but also things like drones, robotics, etc.
Raw materials and cost is a big part of the Chinese dominance on EVs and it'll continue to be on that side of the political sphere.
Having to tariff China also emphasizes that they're gaining ground too quickly. They process about (over?) 80% of the major parts, so you can't fully tariff them either, only assembled cars or some parts.
https://moto.pl/MotoPL/7,178770,32479760,minister-bije-na-al...
- Unabated push towards 'Snow Crash' level of extremely localized power structures at the expense of federal government ( think K shaped economy, but for governmental structures ) - Actual further descent into K shaped economy -- that.. I fear.. is a very safe prediction to make now - Midterms will see some localized polically motivated violence ( likely across the spectrum bar some pressura valve release ) - Shadow wars will continue - Bitcoin will crash; monero will replace it as dollar falls - Companies and government will desperately work together to contains severely distributed ASI level entity that exists as hidden braille invisible characters across all known fora - I manage to to move to full WFH - Valve releases HL3 on Frame - Fusion power will get closer by two kiloseconds
Also, sometimes headlines claim 11% down is crashing - what’s “crashing” here?
It’s more likely that legal shenanigans happen like VRA section 2 going away and deepening gerrymandering wars or looking for excuses to disqualify people from voting for “election integrity” and other creative democratic backsliding that would pass muster at SCOTUS.
(Hope you didn't stake your retirement on bitcoin hitting $200,000!)
Additionally, that it'll eventually prove to be a wild success, with significant benefit to kids.
On the darker side, the same technologies and restrictions will be applied in various ways to adults (similar to the porn verification laws), which will have significantly more negative effects.
(source: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42490517)
There are some correct predictions it seems, a lot of this is happening around the world so it would be interesting to see how this pans out in 2026, thoughts?
I dont recall if the Australia ban was on the cards then.
And as productivity rises, the complexity and ambition of the projects tackeled will continue to rise.
The way we do the work might change, but things aren't going to look as different as people think.
It's this paradox where in order to become a senior engineer, you must get hired as a junior engineer, to learn and observe how production software works, but that is pretty hard these days.
The only thing that matters is if YOU care. Do you like software? Do you want to learn and make something that was unatainable to you a year ago?
There's also a major difference between college and work so you shouldn't sweat it so much.
Yes that's true but I would argue this isn't because of AI itself. Sure it might have accelerated it but I have heard that in the 2020's a lot of people got a lot of jobs in the industry and then its that the market did feel saturated and in a sense, a lot of jobs feel this way in the economy where if someone has it, they continue having it but its becoming harder for new people to enter, there are financials reasons for this too mostly if i remember, interests rates are one of the core reasons
That being said, Even though I have used LLM's a lot, I do not agree with your opinion and I am even younger than you most likely (17)
A lot of people my age/people just going into college would use AI a lot to cheat but I will genuinely try to take it slow to learn things. I will try to use it as a learning tool and not as a crutch. Currently I am still in high school and I get ideas which I wish to implement but dont have the time because of exams so I test them out with LLM's but even I find the whole process frustrating at times and its just, maybe its me but there is a good ceiling that I can process. Some basic crud processes can definitely be in that but if your project is novel, even basic things can be hard
I will give you an example, I recently tried creating an api for proton docs which worked by having browser instances. I had two basic scripts that worked on one platform and converted them to puppeteer using LLM and after it worked, I then asked it to simply create a very basic crud api on top of it
Nope, I tried it 5-6 times on the best models on the market but they couldn't actively take two files which had read/write and have it work, either there was an issue in read or an issue in write
I am fine with the project as it is right now and I am fine with the templates it has given me and I am going to build it now on top of it
I had many ideas which could be considered basic crud apps like having a kanban app/github issues like ui on top of bitwarden after I saw a post here by simon saying how he uses github issues and that went semi-viral on hackernews
Another issue is that I think just as how sure writers and similar can generate AI generated, I feel like there would be more trust on the non AI generated code.
Personally I will try my best to create prototypes with AI and if I like them, I will see what it does and then rewrite them myself as an learning experience and also because people say spec driven development etc. but I just want to code things by hand at this point or convert the LLM generated prototypes of idea to something that I later code and understand by hand tbh (most likely when I get into college)
I think that this is going to continue and although AI can be good for proto-typing ideas and similar (which is mainly what I use it for), in my opinion, I feel like AI is still black magic where everyone is winging it but I feel like the way AI is right now (generate all code sort of) would lead to more bugs and issues and just frustration by seniors overall
There have been studies where companies who use AI lose money Companies who generate AI lose money in training costs/others There are studies where people who use AI actually lose productivity There are many anecdotal evidences that seniors dont like to waste time on ai generated slop code to code review
So in a sense, this would be a tool which can have vast productivity differences, people might want to get the speed but I feel like that when these bubble bursts and these companies give the real prices of their tooling which can be a lot in my opinion. I feel like a lot of companies will see even more losses/ its not that good overall
As I have said within the 2020's the interest rate was down so people hired more and there was already a hiring freeze of sorts when interest rates were raised
I feel like 4-5 years down the line, interest rates can go down again and with all the other AI things seeping into reality/market corrections overall, I feel like there can be cases where using AI can panic the market and lose stock prices and so with all the other factors, I feel like employment will go up again
To be honest, I dont know too much about employment, I feel like its similar to mathematics in a sense but I read books on finance and so my honest opinion is that the goal of being financially independent is to do the work that you like and I genuinely enjoy doing this work for the most part and so no matter how much it pays (which I assume to be honest would be good enough for me considering I live in third world country and I am frugal anyways) plus with all the other factors, i am pretty optimistic. I am also optimistic that I can create my own businesses much rather easily by prototyping multiple ideas with LLM generated code and then locking in on those which have a market fit to gain a sustainable cash cow. I will do these things when I get into university and then 4 years down the line, I do think that I can find something which can hopefully click but I still might do a job.
In my opinion, the companies not hiring right now are gonna cause an higher issue down the line and I am confident that no matter what, I just wanna do the thing I like as a job and there are other opinions on this matter (see other comment) which are optimistic down 4-5 years and I share that opinion
The human has to have enough understanding of the problem to know which math to apply and calculate in the first place. That requires understanding and discernment. This works the brain. This mental work strengthens our problem solving ability.
Whereas with AI, you just tell it the problem and it gives an easy answer. Thus involving no further work from the human brain which causes it to atrophy just like any other underused muscle.
The way you describe AI - tell it the problem and get an easy answer sounds identical to anecdotal complaints I've heard like Google search providing an answer to everything means no one has to learn anything, or everyone copying code from stack overflow articles. At the end of the day it's still another tool with pros and cons, tradeoffs, etc., and will be used and misused and abused by different people in different ways.
You give a calculator a problem and it gives an easy answer thus involving no further work from the human brain which causes it to atrophy just like any other underused muscle.
Just like a calculator can easily solve some problems so can AI. Sure the set of problems it can solve is bigger than a calculator. AI just enables you to work on bigger problems because you’re not spending so much time “calculating by hand”.
If you delegate all your thinking to AI or you use AI when the point of the activity is to do the activity (ie homework at school) then I think you’ll see problems. Just like using a calculator when you’re supposed to be learning how to add will stunt your growth.
Society has made tremendous progress since the invention of TV.
Humanity has adopted and then discarded skills many times in its history. There were once many master archers, nobody outside of one crazy Danish guy has mastered archery for hundreds of years. That isn't bad, nobody cares, nothing of value was lost.
Socrates said the same thing about writing.
Like I am starting to use etherpad a lot recently and although I have proton docs and similar, I just love etherpad for creating quick pads for information
Or to be honest, I search it on the internet and ddg's AI feature does give me a short answer (mostly to the point) but I think that there are definitely ways to get our own knowledge base if any outage happens basically.
I wasted so much time on dumbass pandas documentation search when I should have been building. AI is literally the internet all you are doing is querying the internet 2.0.
I often kept vast ugly text documents filled with random commands because I always forgot them.
Writing for example is proven to be better done by hand with a pen and paper, people who take typed notes don’t retain as much.
AI has accelerated the most simple and obvious answers to easy questions.
For more difficult things deep thinking and writing, partly with pen and paper notes and diagrams are still the most effective tools.