Tesla publishes analyst forecasts suggesting sales set to fall(theguardian.com) |
Tesla publishes analyst forecasts suggesting sales set to fall(theguardian.com) |
In all likelihood? xAI buys Tesla. That’s the functional floor.
> Would it take down the entire stock market with it
No.
The financial engineering with the Twitter/X takeover was already pretty bold, but Tesla would probably still be a chunk an order of magnitude larger than that.
people keep forgetting that TSLA is not a car company! they are AI and humanoid and robots and … company and as such worth 100x current eval :)
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46433480 A Second Year of Decline for Tesla's EVs (electrek.co) 1 day ago (2 comments)
Original headline: Tesla (TSLA) does something unusual ahead of Q4 delivery results
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46436205 Tesla Compiles Downbeat Average Estimates for Its Vehicle Sales (bloomberg.com) ~1 day ago
Why would they willingly start publishing numbers that are worse than 3rd party consensus, out of nowhere?
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/13/business/tesla-stock-sale...
https://www.afr.com/technology/life-changing-wealth-stopped-...
Tesla just announced Cybercab is now in production.
Safety and remote drivers are a huge barrier to achieving this. As is legal liability for accidents. Uber sidesteps this issue completely since it is the driver's responsibility.
Word is that Robotaxi is crashing at a higher rate than human drivers in Austin --- even with safety drivers.
https://www.technology.org/2025/11/03/teslas-robotaxi-fleet-...
But I am curious what the end-to-end math looks like for all costs incurred in Cybercab rideshare services, maintenance, insurance, repairs, and so forth, and how that calculates out per mile. And of course the volume of rideshares, given the tepid pace most Tesla announcements come to fruition and scale.
The Model 3 / Y scaled better than many predicted, but since then, other promises have gone the other way.
Waymo has solved it. Tesla and BYD probably will solve it. And then everyone else will solve it for the same reason everyone likes having car factories: jobs and tanks.
I say this as someone who was in a Waymo and used Tesla’s latest FSD less than a month ago. One of them still fails spectacularly ungracefully. In the other I can take a nap.
We no longer have an actual product roadmap of revenue viable product releases from Elon and Tesla. It’s just irrational market exuberance but all the products are being abandoned.
That isn’t really sustainable.
I drive a Y. I’ve said before that Elon was peak Elon when they released the 3/Y and he sent the Roadster into space. Everything since has been a grift of diminishing returns, in terms of reality and actual hardline income.
Grok and xAi are a thing but they mostly cost money right now. I kinda wonder if he isn’t irrationally energetic enough to get something interesting out of Macrohard but he can no longer iterate product releases to save his life.
My other long bet is that Google will win a big chunk of AI (because TPUs and frontier and other income and enterprise sales) and Elon will mostly succeed in outspending OpenAI and plundering their chances (save the magical odds of their Jony Ive bet delivering some kind of post-moat income autonomy). xAI and OpenAI will sink into the deep together.
What exactly has Tesla solved, automation-wise? Not sure what you are specifically referring to? I am being everything except ignorant, I look at things with my own eyes and do not fall for car-salesman tricks. Perhaps I gave him the benefit of the doubt initially but after decade+ of overpromising and underdelivering (underdelivering might be the understatement of the century) forgive me if I do not believe what a car salesman is pitching. I do not hate Elon at all, actually think he's one of the greatest visionaries of our time and probably the greatest salesman in the history of mankind.