I've spent 20 years building backend systems and the last 12 on cloud infrastructure. Now I'm betting the other way.

The thesis isn't "local AI is better." It's that the window to build credible alternatives is closing. Apple, Google, Amazon are all watching local inference become viable. Their response will be "local" AI that phones home - on-device processing with cloud-mandatory features, privacy marketing with telemetry requirements.

Once those defaults ship, it doesn't matter if alternatives exist. Most people never look for options once something convenient is already there. Search, social, mobile, cloud - the pattern repeats.

The question I keep asking: does building local-first alternatives matter if they don't win market share? My current answer is yes - the existence of a credible exit changes how platforms behave, even if most users never take it.

But I'm also aware this could be cope. The self-hosting crowd has lost every major battle. Email, messaging, social - private options stayed niche every time. Maybe AI is different because the models are finally capable at small sizes. Maybe it isn't.

Building something in this space. Curious if others see the same window, or if I'm just rationalizing a preference into a market.