China's Renewable Energy Revolution Is a Mess That Might Save the World

China's Renewable Energy Revolution Is a Mess That Might Save the World(wired.com)

7 points by kalli 128 days ago | 11 comments

maxglute 127 days ago |

PRC built ~550 GW of solar last year, ~300GW domestic, ~250GW export. About 4 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in energy flow. Assume 30 year lifespan, everyday OF PRC solar production = ~120 million barrels of oil stock (4mbd * 30 ys) , assume 17% capacity factor = 820Twh/yr using primary energy / equivalent / substitution method of 1 unit of solar = 3 unit of oil @35% work efficiency.

For reference global oil production is ~100 mb/d. Global LNG= ~70 mb/d equivalent. Global coal = ~110 mb/d equivalent. PRC solar effectively brrrintg new emission free oil field every 24 hours that is larger than all global oil producers combined.

PRC solar capacity is like 1100 GW... lots of idle plants, but on paper PRC solar can produce more energy than all global fossil combined. But world (including PRC) can't absorb/plugin/transition that fast. Now consider solar takes PRC like 18 months to build / scale vs 7-10 year lead for oil infra from RoW.

Another point to consider is manufacturing all these panels, which are net carbon sinks, count towards PRC emissions, vs extracting oil/lng where exporters who gets to shift emission accounting onto importers/consumers. IF PRC got credited for ~100 mb/d of fossil displaced via solar (round down for conservative carbon payback), PRC emissions would be completely negated, i.e. PRC solar would avoid like 1.5x-2x more emissions than PRC generates.

ZeroGravitas 127 days ago | |

Carbonbrief put out a report with a similar theme last July.

They calculated that Chinese green tech exports in 2024 reduced the rest of the world's carbon by 1%.

It's mostly solar (though they calculated EVs and some other stuff too) so assuming 25 years life that would be equivalent to 25% of the world-minus-China's CO2 emissions or about 18%.

So Chinese exports in one year cancel out 2/3rds of their yearly CO2.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-chinas-clean-energy-exp...

In 2025 they exported about 25% more in dollar terms, though prices keep falling so that can be misleading in terms of impact.

metalman 127 days ago |

My first solar pannel was given to me in Takilma ,Oregon, early 90's, and performed the magical feat of restarting my camper bus by charging it's battery. That panel was purchased by the guy I was aprenticing with from the founder of Real Goods, who he knew personaly, the founder of Real Goods was the worlds first retailer of solar pannels, and the only seller for years. Now that solar power is fully verticaly integrated, ie: solar is building solar, the real economics of that will be felt in every market, and bucking it is a lost battle.

chrisjj 128 days ago |

True current title: China’s Renewable Energy Revolution Is a Huge Mess That Might Save the World

Does HN strip huge?

zhouzhao 128 days ago | |

OP probably had to remove some words, due the 30 character limit on submission headlines.

chrisjj 127 days ago | | |

No. The limit is 80 and the true title fits.

zhouzhao 128 days ago |

https://archive.is/0alye

No paywall

ZeroGravitas 128 days ago |

I'm old enough to remember when Wired was excited about free market capitalism. Apparently competition is bad when solar panel manufacturers do it.

To be charitable, they may be trying to meet an insanely misinformed American audience half-way, and wake them from their fossil slumbers before they surrender their global leadership.

But if that amounts to just half misinforming them, then it's still not great.

yorwba 127 days ago | |

Competition reduces profits, which is good for consumers, but bad for investors. China has a bit of a problem with hype-driven investment, where something becomes a new trend (solar energy, bike sharing, electric cars...), lots of new companies get started, followed by oversupply, followed by price wars, followed by bankruptcies. Of course every company hopes that it will be the others that go bankrupt, so during the price-war phase, they take on a lot of debt to keep operating just a bit longer. In the worst case, there could be a wave of bankruptcies developing into a full-blown economic crisis.

zhouzhao 128 days ago | |

Same in some European countries. "Free market is great, MERCOSUR, yay"

Then China comes with affordable EV's and all of a sudden the free market ain't so great anymore, and Chinese EV's have a punishment tax.

Why? Because China's government allegedly subsidized the EV manufactures too much?

Take a look at Germany, how many times have they save the big car manufactures with tax payer money? no difference, and until some years ago, the German cars we desirable in China. Well, not anymore.