Ask HN: How Did You Validate?

4 points by haute_cuisine 101 days ago | 6 comments

Dear founders,

I'm trying to understand common startup wisdom and it doesn't make sense to me.

For example, if you give me the source code of Dropbox, I don't think I'll cross the 100K ARR in the first year. Maybe, even 1K goal would be a stretch.

What would you do to get an abstract Dropbox to 1M ARR? Start with cold emails? Define ICP and spam them through Linkedin Sales Navigator, aka B2B sales playbook?

I find common advice on validation super generic, which means it doesn't work as it lacks specifics and nuance. For example, competition is good because it proves demand, but "scrappy MVP" doesn't sell in competitive markets.

I'm arriving at the point that the only way to succeed is to get your product embedded into some kind of value delivery pipeline through offline sales: meetups, trade shows, etc. Go to a place where your customers hang out offline.

Did you validate your idea before shipping the product? Did you know in advance that it'll succeed? Did you have to do cold emails to find first customers? Did you feel you had to push your product at first?

moomoo11 100 days ago |

Your only goal should be to solve a problem. Everything else will fall into place.

If you can’t do that then go work for someone who is solving a problem. Learn from them.

You can solve your own problems. Maybe it affects many others too. You can work in industry a bit and you’ll find dozens of problems. Maybe help one customer who has that problem, and go from there.

You need something to make progress. It’s 2026 and you can’t just have an idea and get paid.

These days unless you’re talking about something involving massive regulatory changes and you have deep connections (and access $$$), you need something you can show.

When you solve a problem you will make money. If you take that statement and instead try to attack it from a hundred angles, yngmi. My 2c.

Start small. Grow.

aristofun 101 days ago |

I wonder for every Dropbox how many similar products are there in the graveyard.

Technically I understand the market fit as the point where your unit economy starts making ends meet and showing positive dynamic. If for every dollar spent (on everything including and most importantly user acquisition) you can prove yourself that you get >1$ returns, your business model works.

And I doubt there is a simple strategy for that, or even a finite number of strategies, even complex ones that can guarantee you anything.

And I'm sure nobody truly knows "in advance that it'll succeed" whatever "it" is.

fantasy905 101 days ago |

I don’t think most successful products were “validated” in advance in the way blog posts describe. What usually gets validated early is not demand, but whether the founders can consistently get someone to say yes. Code, MVPs, and even competition are secondary. Distribution comes first, and it’s almost always messier and more manual than the advice suggests. Most validation looks like pushing something imperfect until either people start pulling it, or you give up. In hindsight we call that validation. At the time, it mostly feels like guessing with feedback.

agcat 101 days ago |

I made my validation thesis and frameworks that i used to run discovery open - https://aishwarya-48913.medium.com/startup-pivots-how-we-ite...

And the process of defining ICP, finding them here - https://aishwarya-48913.medium.com/founder-led-sales-for-us-...

theorchid 101 days ago |

There is no right way to make a startup profitable. Online sales will work for one, offline for another. One approach will work for one founder, another for another. There are thousands of factors, and you cannot know in advance which one will be right for your case. Some will test sales for a month and give up, while others will continue and find a channel (or not).

gethly 100 days ago |

Validating your idea is pointless. There is always someone who will want what you make. Problem for the past 15 years has been advertising. It's all about having a ton of cash to burn on ads. Nothing else matters. Whether you make something unique or better or cheap has lost all its meaning and turned the principles capitalism on its head.