the species argument is interesting but i think the real issue is simpler — most people can't separate 'what i want to happen' from 'what i think will happen'. prediction markets work great for the small % of participants who can do that consistently. the rest just end up as liquidity for the sharp traders who actually price things correctly. which honestly might be the point — you don't need everyone to be rational, you just need enough rational capital to move prices to the right level
thanks for the comment! agree, rationality is the key, we are using AI / Agentic Organisms as a placeholder for reasoning-enhanced humans. this can be achieved by life experience, reading the right books, doing physics homework, or merging with Claude Code lol
ha yeah merging with claude code is one way to do it. but seriously the interesting thing about prediction markets is you dont even need to be rational yourself, you just need enough rational capital in the market to push prices to the right level. the irrational participants basically fund the rational ones