Serious oil traders are saying it will take months or even more than a year to get back to normal.
The only thing containing prices at the moment is many exporters sold futures to lock-in prices for the rest of the year (it wasn't market manipulation as many suspected). But once they are sold out we'll have some interesting price discovery.
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/ICEEUR-BRN1!/forward-cur...
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-CL1!/forward-curve...
(LLMs are good at explaining the jargon). Shipping just got 3-4 times more expensive. Not just crude oil, also bulk, chemicals... There are not enough ships and there is not enough bunker diesel - normally costs 400$/t, now 1100$/t
It would be nice if this was the thing that finally kicked governments into gear to get off our reliance on oil. But I don’t think 20% is quite big enough to make that happen.
Is there enough copper and power to get those ev stations up in the us? Cuz now’s their chance.
Strikes on Qatar's LNG Ras Laffan plant Will Reshape the Future of Fossil Gas
https://hyperfocusinhalifax.substack.com/p/why-arent-oil-pri...
This is ignoring fifty years of trying to start this war. Even blaming Israel doesn't entirely make sense. A large segment of capital in the US truly wants this war to happen (as foolish as that may seem to rational humans). It is not simply a distraction.
Or to put it another way, the Trump administration is characterized by dozens of scandals of bungled governance, each distracting from the next. Determining which is the "root" thing being distracted from is pointless.
I'm also curious if you could explain the logic more than "Just so your own research man"...
Many other things pass through the straight besides oil
The bar was a president that doesn't start pointless wars. That's a low bar. Biden cleared said low bar by not starting pointless wars.
Pipelines have endless vulnerability surface as Ukraine showed and just do the math on trucks vs a super tanker.
That's because the US chose to shoot them down with Patriot missles, like morons. Ukrainians have developed cheap interceptor drones for this very purpose.
There are also radar-guided anti-aircraft guns like this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flakpanzer_Gepard