Key points from the Atlantic Counil:

- "For the first time in more than two years, Ukraine regained more territory than it lost in February 2026, the New York Times reports."

- "While the Russian military held the battlefield initiative throughout 2025, Vladimir Putin's invading army was unable to achieve any major breakthroughs and managed to secure less than one percent of additional Ukrainian territory."

- "By early 2026, many Western officials estimated that monthly Russian military losses in Ukraine were now exceeding Moscow's capacity to replenish its forces... With Putin deeply reluctant to risk another mobilization drive inside Russia, Moscow is turning increasingly to Africa and other regions for mercenary troops."

"The false narrative of inevitable Russian victory is designed to demoralize Kyiv’s allies and undermine support for the Ukrainian war effort."