Ask HN: What was the limiting factor in growth of demand for fiber during 2000s?

2 points by AbstractH24 37 days ago | 7 comments

I understand that breakthroughs such as multiplexing increasing efficiency caused a huge glut in the amount of fiber laid. But what prevented demand from increasing to use it?

I ask, wondering what will be the thing that causes the demand for data centers and processing power to outpace supply as GenAI gets more efficient. Rather than people just using more GenAI.

Bender 37 days ago |

I understand that breakthroughs such as multiplexing caused a huge glut in the amount of fiber laid. But what prevented demand from increasing to use it?

I watched multiple fiber companies implode and my friends laid off in that time period. It was not a lack of demand but the unrealized not properly studied cost of digging in cities and associated time delays and extra costs and extra extra unforeseen costs by companies new on the scene. Some were warned by telco and warnings were ignored, funding was obtained by greedy short sighted people. This was in medium to large cities where there was already a significant footprint of other infrastructure that prevented trenching in new fiber and cross many different boundaries.

I can't really answer your question about AI.

AbstractH24 37 days ago | |

> unrealized not properly studied cost of digging in cities and associated time delays and extra costs and extra extra unforeseen costs by companies new on the scene

Was that unrelated to the potential ROI imploding as existing supply grew more efficient? That even if prices stayed high it still wouldn’t have been worth what it cost to overcome obstacles?

If so, sounds like a reminder that if things had gone “according to plan” the oversupply would have been exponentially greater. Something i never considered.

Bender 37 days ago | | |

That even if prices stayed high it still wouldn’t have been worth what it cost to overcome obstacles?

They would have required significantly more funding and this was even before they got through all the permitting costs. There never would have been an over-supply as most of them could not even get through permitting much less all the approvals to start trenching up the roads or sharing existing pipes with other companies. Eventually over a long period of time individual data-centers and telcos worked through this but the initial idea of making a profitable business of running fiber in 2000/2001 was a pipe dream pun intended.

There was plenty of demand and plenty of data-centers popping up all over the place. I helped manage one around that time. It wasn't my primary role but we went from about 700 people to 6 in 6 years. A lot of businesses at that time were started by people with big hopes of getting rich and very little business experience.

PaulHoule 37 days ago |

There was a lot of demand for fiber in the US but the supply in a lot of places was obsolete DSL and cable.

nkreats 37 days ago |

The dot com bust aftermath.