If I told you 20y ago that my phone has a touch screen you would've been impressed... AI, like everything else, will earn it's place in our day to day lives, and we will carry on. That's what humanity has been doing for the last couple millions of years.

No. I think it'll go all the way and we'll end-up with something approximating agi.

Reason is that the tech is hooked-up to the dying husk of late capitalism like an iv line, and nation state military competition will force it to work. I don't see it being restrained much, unfortunately.

So dotcoms are the wrong analogy. Computational intelligence is like the internet - its an everything technology. People (like me) won't like it, but I think it will be in everything. Peculiar alien minds are just gonna spill out of this thing.

dot com heralds the internet era. there may be a bubble that time, but many enduring companies still thrives from that era. AI will be the same- its a generational change and certainly there will be pockets of bubbles where many companies will die. However, AI is the new electricity for intelligence- many of us will not be able to live without it in future just like our life gets disrupted by a blackout or the internet going down.

100% if will. obviously LLMs will stay with us (same way as internet did) but the burst will happen.

Yes. At some point the [Capital, Capability, Chip] equation will tip the other direction

AI is a step change, and like any step change, it overshoots before it settles down. We're in that overshoot phase now. So yes, it's a bubble, and will burst when the high expectations doesn't match reality and economics, but it's not going away.

pretty much - true