https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/permanent-ban-ipv6-forced-nat...
A few weeks ago a very clever way to bypass the SNI whitelist was introduced [1] (SNI spoofing for cloudflare!) but it was subsequently blocked. Some claim that at this moment all outbound TCP connections are terminated inside the firewall / ISPs and therefore methods like [1] based on injecting fake or problematic TCP packets no longer work. It seems like even SYN-free TCP connections (again, breaking protocol) are no longer accessible.
Also there is no point to lie about this
https://karat.substack.com/p/a-diplomatic-suitcase-at-imam-k...
google image search "iran confiscates satellite dishes" for some example photos from their domestic media.
https://www.google.com/search?num=10&q=iran+confiscates+sate...
There's also the problem of just physically identifying starlink terminals on roofs. Iran has gone on sprees of confiscating ku band TVRO satellite dishes for a long time.
It's entirely possible to use a starlink terminal with exclusively wired ethernet stuff, including usb-c to gigabit ethernet adapters plugged into android phones, it just takes some training and discipline for the ordinary non technical user.
But this is also an example of weird absolutist thinking about military tactics: is it unbeatable? No. Does it complicate the surveillance and detection picture? Yes.
[1] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/29/world/middleeast/us-preci...
But look at all our self-proclaimed enemeies (eg Cuba, North Korea, Saddam Hussein's Iraq, Iran) and all of that end of becoming a varying degree of autocratic. None of these countries ends up wanting to be a US puppet. I can't think of a single example where foreign inteference (or war) has had the citizenry welcome foreign powers as liberators or otherwise increased freedoms or conditions in a country for those citizens.
You might be tempted to say apartheid South Africa but there's a key difference. South Africa wasn't an enemy. It was an ally. Sanctions don't work on enemies. They only work on allies.
However unpoular the IRGC or the Supreme Leader are in Iran, the US and Israel are less popular. We should never forget that the Ayatollah is a direct product of US inteference as we couped their democratically elected government to install a brutal regime under the Shah. Look up the history of SAVAK some time.
I just don't know if those civilians will trust you. They have plenty of reasons not to.
>Last year, the Iranian government passed legislation that made using, buying or selling Starlink devices punishable by up to two years in prison. The jail term for distributing or importing more than 10 devices can be up to 10 years.
For those who don't keep track of backbone ISP topologies: Iran has 3 or 4 major entirely government controlled ASNs which all domestic ISPs are obligated to be downstream of.
The government controlled AS run all the international transit connections (at the BGP level) and also the physical fiber/longhaul DWDM systems into a few neighboring countries. It makes it very easy to cut off all the downstream domestic only ISPs.
It is to prevent hacking and tracking by US and Israel of what is going on over there, it is defensive since it has been shown that Iran's connected infrastructure is thoroughly compromised.
There is no doubt that CIA has access to Starlink, that's a massive amount of crucial intel right there in battlefront.
well... so obvious
Due to widespread protests and an attempt to crack down on coordination. This chain of events was widely reported.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Internet_blackout_in_Iran
And some attached pdf that I could have an LLM generate in a minute I wouldn't call a source. I'm talking about a source in the sense of journalism -- something I cannot find for this story.
From Parlementarians, right down to half the traffic cops.
The "supreme leader" (wonder if that comes with salami) was famously targeted so successfully because Iranians gave Mossad access to traffic camera footage across Teheran, so they could track officials' movements ... and Iranians did that with full knowledge, even with the intention that that would kill those officials.
The Iranian people hate the islamist/palestinian/terrorist axis to such an extent they'll actively collaborate to murder every last one of them. Which is another big thing the islamists are afraid of: if the population gets organized successfully, half of the IRGC will find themselves hanging from the nearest traffic light.
So you're both correct, they're terrified of their own people, and they're terrified of OSINT. You are, however, trying to spin that as support for the regime, when of course it is the exact opposite, to an extreme extent.
EDIT: To provide more context: Let's say that "John" is arrested for having had "illegal internet access" (not even owning a starlink). Even if he has a trial, the prosecutor can, and will, argue that he could have used his a secure channel to collaborate with the Mossad and CIA. If they find any unfavorable social media posts on his phone (and believe me, they will) they will say that he has endangered the national security by encouraging unrest and violent protests. This would then amount to waging war against God and death penalty.
If his phone is so clean that they don't find anything, it must be the fact that he is an agent, a mercenary. They will torture him until he confesses to having collaborated with Mossad. They will then air a forced confession on TV.
John might get lucky and have a caring family member from IRGC. In that case you might be right, he will only receive a prison sentence. If he had had a higher ranking IRGC family member he could even go further and start selling his starlink VPN for around $5 / GB. It's not even a hypothetical situation, I had to buy one of these (and it indeed was a starlink connection) four weeks ago ...
“I correct people on Hacker News.”
“Worth it.”
"Iran Prepares Death Penalty Law for Starlink Internet Use"
https://iranwire.com/en/news/145471-iran-prepares-death-pena...
There are objectively smart and dumb choices that can be made in this conflict. It's smart to blockade Iran as soon as the Strait closes, it's smart to prefer diplomacy to a taxpayer-funded land invasion. Similarly, I will credit the IRGC with using the blackout to their advantage. It's a tactically potent, symmetrical response that refuses to cede leverage to the BLUFOR coalition. Their cards are being played so well that it's fair to ask whether or not the CCP is just spoonfeeding them American tactics they found through Salt Typhoon.
No it's not. It's just doing what they always do: taking hostages and threatening to damage a LOT of people's lives just so they can feel good, feel strong without of course actually being strong, with both themselves and the Iranian population living in misery just to cause problems for the rest of the world. They have made every last friend they have into enemies. Both the Iraqi and Lebanese governments are attacking them now.
Hostages when you have no way out ... is about as smart as a bank robber taking a hostage. It helps until the snipers arrive. Then, a bullet with your name on it gets loaded and no further comment from you is required. Iran's islamists are creating a situation where the entire world has no other choice but to destroy them.
It is beyond stupid. The outcome they are desperate to create would utterly destroy THEM. And in their desperate attempts to so that they're giving everyone who might have chosen to protect them into enemies screaming at the world that they need to be dealt with.
That’s true in most counties. And for good reason.
Israel is tiny, and has a population of 10.1 million.
And a fair amount of military firepower. You probably shouldn’t be taking photos of, say, Iron Dome equipment locations.
You might also have to consider the propaganda campaigns the US could run against an Iranian population with web access. If the population isn't more discontent now than it already was, "secretly" replacing commercial ad placements on western websites with US propaganda when the requests come from Iranian sources could make them discontent or inflame them further, which is bad for the Iranian government.
> consider the propaganda campaigns the US could run against an Iranian population with web access.
I’m amazed at people who have access to freely express their opinions online, prescribe that 90m people should not have the right to freely access information because they somehow can’t be trusted to not fall for propaganda. What a patronizing and self righteous take.
And yes, we already know large masses of people will readily fall for propaganda, just look at the US political landscape, look at the entire field of marketing which is just propaganda for profit. Everybody across the entire world is vulnerable to propaganda, marketing and propaganda didn't become less common going into the 21st century, it just got better and harder to identify.
Remember when Ukraine used the Russian cellular internet to operate drones that destroyed numerous Russian heavy bomber aircraft? That’s what the US/Israel would logically be expected to do if there were wide open internet access in Iran.
This is obvious game theory playing out militarily, people only see political suppression but warfare is a totally different ballgame.
If China were waging large scale war on the US I’d expect the exact same countermeasures to happen.
That's one of the lines people spew as if it is a tautology without actually thinking about its accuracy. Germany, France, Japan, South Korea, need more examples?
Iranians right now also tend to disagree with you too...
But let's discuss your examples.
Germany was obliterated, levelled. They supported their own war effort basically until the day the war ended. Deaths in the camps happened basically up until liberation. In some cases it was a few days before as the SS fled the Allies. I'm not sure total military defeat counts as being welcomed.
Japan? They were prepared to fight to the death. It's debated why Japan ultimately surrendered. The popular version is because of the atomic bombs. A likely more accurate reason is because the USSR entered the war. When exactly did they welcome us?
France was occupied by Germany so yes, they welcomed those who liberated them from their foreign occupiers. How does that relate to Iran?
South Korea depends on what you're referring to. First there was the Japanese occupation that ended with Japan's surrender in 1945. Again, like France, we removed their occupiers. But then we installed a military dicatatorship and started a war because communism. It's also worth noting that North Korea was wealtheir than South Korea until the 1970s. It took decades of military occupation (in the south) and economic sanctions to reverse that. Oh and South Korea is now facing total population collapse within 2-3 generations so there's that too.
> France... How does that relate to Iran?
Iran is also occupied by Mullah-IRGC-Palestine axis that have no overlap with the values 85%+ of the population. Iran pays Hezbollah members ~$1800/month when their own citizens are in poverty below $100. Their country is objectively occupied and resources are being raided by a foreign group and literally kills anyone that complains.
You also mentioned this in your original post which prima facie shows your knowledge of the Persian people is precisely zero:
> However unpoular [sic] the IRGC or the Supreme Leader are in Iran, the US and Israel are less popular.
Panama
When Japan occupied the Netherlands East Indies in the early weeks of 1942, many Indonesians celebrated, seeing the Japanese army as the fulfillment of a prophecy attributed to Jayabaya. He had foretold a time when white men would establish their rule over Java and oppress the people for many years, only to be driven out by "yellow men from the north." According to Jayabaya, these "yellow dwarves" would remain for one crop cycle (interpreted as 3 1/2 years, corresponding to the duration of Japanese occupation), after which Java would be free from foreign domination. To most Javanese, Japan was seen as a liberator, as the prophecy appeared to be fulfilled.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jayabaya
(To One Piece readers) I remembered this from this post https://www.reddit.com/r/OnePiece/comments/xb3lx/spoilers_jo...
A counter-argument could be that sanctions, when overused[0], weaken that very point by reducing this interdependence.
[0] This is not an opinion on whether or not they are currently overused.
Think of:
West Germany, Japan, South Korea, Kuwait, Baltic States, Balkans
That's just wishful thinking on your part. Every iranian i speak to curses their regime and praise trump and netanyahu. Their level of support for the people bombing their country is incredible.
We've seen this with the Cuban diaspora, who were heavily anti-Castro. I mean let's just consider for a second who would flee a regime? Batista loyalists, mostly. So is it any surprise? This myth-making has become almost comical. Ted Cruz, for example, hates communism because Batista tortured his father [1].
The Persian diaspora is really no different. It's incredibly reactionary [2][3]. They were implicated in the attack on pro-Palestinian protesters at UCLA, for example.
The US and Israel are deeply popular in Iran. These are the same people who killed almost 200 school girls by double tapping a school. Is that really a surprise?
[1]: https://x.com/KavehAbbasian/status/1935738249995022846
[2]: https://newlinesmag.com/reportage/the-dilemmas-of-americas-i...
[3]: https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/irans-north-a...
In any case, it's perfectly clear that the internet blackout didn't stop the protests. The protests were never going to topple the government, the CIA/Mossad needs the Kurds to fight the IRGC (and the Kurds don't want to fight).
I do know that the IDF and CENTCOM have been censoring in-theater OSINT for decades, and we also know that Iran has the incentives to do the same thing with a larger population. Lacking the CIA and Mossad's censorship tools, a total shutdown is not really that unexpected.
Chinese government don't care about small percent of population accessing open internet.
In Russia whatever worked month ago will likely not work now. By this time all the wireless mobile internet in Russia is mostly whitelist-only when it works at all. And they start to test whitelists on broadband internet now.
And Iran is likely shut off internet for good until reginme collapses.
I've also been to Shanghai recently and there I can just use HK roaming eSIM and it work super fast, reliable and with no censorship. No passport required to buy it online, no anything. Same with any other tourist eSIM.
US is able to produce cars on its soil and there is no reason to give up this industry to foreign country.
It's pretty sane policy.
The difference is PRC has confidence they can indigenize tech/processes and compete, so giving western companies broader access to even strategic sectors long term worthwhile, especially sectors they're behind in. West either doesn't have that confidence or understands they'll get stomped even in PRC parity/fair JV arrangement and better to lock in with protectionism that now surpass PRC protectionism, or have retarded JV asks.
Which is a pretty sane policy until PRC moves past parity and extend gap despite mountains of ineffective western subsidies.
Yes, blackout to prevent OSINT is a thing. That's not why they were doing them in 2019, 2022, and 2024 and it's not why they're doing it now (seeing as it started before the war). They're doing it to suppress their population because they fear an uprising.
Before USA/Israel started bombing girls' schools and creating oil rain over all of Tehran, there were protests against the rulership that had to be brutally repressed. After that, there were people in the streets waving Iranian flags in Tehran.
Brother, I am not a fan of the Iranian government but if you're claiming Iran is occupied by a foreign Palestinian axis then you have lost the plot.
Iran has pulled in Shia proxies from the surrounding countries during the war because it is an occupying theology/government.
A not insignificant number of IRGC leadership are Iraqi born.