Why airlines are always going bankrupt(davidoks.blog) |
Why airlines are always going bankrupt(davidoks.blog) |
That was surprising. Goes against the idea that deregulation allows companies to squeeze consumers and earn excess profits. My understanding is that before regulation, routes were allotted by the government. So an airline might own New York to Boston, so they didn't have to compete. Obviously de-regulation changed that.
The article doesn't go into it, but unions are also a challenge. Much of the airline industry is unionized. So you have situations where pilots that have been there a while get a lot more money. You have people doing essentially the same job but some are getting paid 3x as much just because they've been there a long time. In most industries, there is higher pay for senior talent, but that's because they're more effective at their job, and produce higher output. In this case it's just a legacy cost that makes some airlines incredibly uncompetitive through structural features.
All US airlines have the same labor costs for pilots and it isn't their highest cost anyway. That would be fuel.
If you want to divvy up costs that way: Boeing is probably the biggest problem. Both them and Airbus eat up all possible excess profit on the back end via the cost for airliners. Break up Boeing, bring back competition in airliner manufacturing. People who want to screw over labor don't usually frame things in those terms for some reason.
Sounds backwards. Pilots have a total monopoly. Boeing doesn't.
That's because this assertion is economically illiterate. Deregulation can lead to increased profits where otherwise companies have monopoly power. But often, the regulation was there in the first place to ensure that companies had sufficient profit to invest in expensive infrastructure. (E.g. railroads).
Same thing happens in law, investment banking, etc... the hardest workers are often the youngest and least-paid. They do it because they know big money may come later.
It really depends on the market. In a potentially competitive market, deregulation can work as a function to drive down margins.
Air travel is such a market. Prior to deregulation, routes were set by government action and competition was limited. With deregulation, it's not that hard to setup a commercial scheduled airline, and new airlines popup relatively frequently to address routes where there is margin. It doesn't take that much capital to start an airline; you can lease the aircraft and contract out maintenance (might be part of the lease) and start with a single round trip per day. You don't need to start with a big network or a lot of aircraft. It's not so easy to get slots at busy airports, but you don't have to start there either.
Where deregulation ends up leading to outsized profits is where the market leads to natural monopoly and regulation provides an upper bound on margin, rather than a lower bound. Things like last mile utilities, where it's difficult to run multiple networks in the same space: ex water, sewage, electricity, telecom. In situations like that, to promote competition you want to do regulated unbundling, so there's one organization that runs the last mile and choices for service over the last mile: ex you pay the last mile for delivery of water per acre foot and also your water supplier who must deliver the same number of acre feet to the water network. (or probably a little more, water networks have shrinkage)
Sometimes it does and sometimes it doesn't. It depends on the industry, as the article goes into detail to explain.
I've held the belief that an occasional bankruptcy is basically a sign of healthy competition within an industry: those companies going down literally didn't know how to be any more efficient or they could've survived.
Regarding airline business, a crapload of more people are flying now with better prices than before the industry was deregulated. Sure it must hurt someone at one end, eventually. Part of the business is standing through price wars because someone will always lose: the best companies can endure that. While airline industry probably fluctuates as described in the article there are plenty of other cyclic industries. Churn itself isn't anything new.
> Labor costs might seem variable, but they’re actually not: pilot, flight attendant, and mechanic compensation in the United States is governed by the Railway Labor Act of 1926 (which was extended to airlines in 1936), which stipulates that collective bargaining agreements don’t actually expire but rather remain in force until they’re replaced. So even your wage bill is more or less fixed over multi-year horizons.
> Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection—which allows a company to continue operating while it restructures its debts under court supervision—is practically the only mechanism by which an airline can renegotiate its rigid cost structure, from aircraft leases to collective bargaining agreements. Oftentimes this renegotiation takes on a rather predatory character. When United Airlines filed for bankruptcy in 2002 in the aftermath of the September 11th attacks, it terminated its pension plan...
> So Chapter 11 is a relief valve for airlines struggling under the weight of their fixed costs; but it doesn’t really do much to help the system as a whole. For airlines, bankruptcy rarely culminates with liquidation; airlines that emerge from bankruptcy proceedings, having voided pension obligations and rejected aircraft leases, can operate at a fundamentally lower cost basis than their competitors. So bankruptcy doesn’t really restore the industry to a competitive equilibrium that can cover the cost of capital: it resets the floor at a lower level, from which a new round of ruinous competition can begin.
article:
> its net profit over those 47 years sits at negative $37 billion
EPA social cost of carbon: $190/ton [1]
US aviation annual emissions: 200 million tons/year
Global warming impact of aviation emissions is leveraged[3] 1.7x because burning it in upper atmosphere is worse.
cost: 190 x 200M * 1.7 = 64600M = or ~65 B / year.
And the articles calcualted loss was over the whole 47 years.
(The 190 per ton cost is for today, it's projected to go up as things get worse.)
[1] https://www.epa.gov/system/files/documents/2023-12/epa_scghg...
[2] https://www.eesi.org/articles/view/u.s-and-international-com...
[3] https://ourworldindata.org/global-aviation-emissions#non-co2...
> So Chapter 11 is a relief valve for airlines struggling under the weight of their fixed costs; but it doesn’t really do much to help the system as a whole
The American founders writing a uniform federal system of bankruptcy was a stroke of genius that's been paying dividends for 250 years now.
The ones that make money operate as financial services from selling points to their partners via their frequent flyer programs.
Consumers compare prices and will always take the cheapest one, even if it's only by a few dollars. They don't think about which airline would be more comfortable, so they make comfort worse and worse. There's very little room in the market for a less-uncomfortable plane. They can auction off exit row seats, but for the most part it's "cattle car" and "first class" at ten times the price (for the people who don't care about price at all).
Frequent flier programs try to stem the flow of people to the cheapest airline, but it doesn't help all that much. They get to charge slightly more than they would otherwise, especially since everybody has a frequent flier program (so everybody gets to raise prices and nobody gives you the even-cheaper alternative). But the various benefits that they use to entice you eat up most of the profits.
Basically they're hoist by their own petard. They promised lower prices but didn't think they'd have to deliver. Instead consumers took them up on it, in droves.
rising cost bases in legacy fleet costs, engineering costs. a lot of airlines fail near their capital renewal programs as fleet age > 25yrs
pure domestic competition beomes a race to the bottom between full service and low cost carriers removing any premium
Every airline that goes belly up always does it with a bang. All flights cancelled, effective immediately. Stranded customers. Tens of thousands of jobs instantly lost. Every time.
It's not like startups or even established companies wherein the time of death takes forever to get to, despite EVERYONE knowing that the body is a corpse.
It's as hilarious as it is depressing.
I think the bankruptcy process does tend to lead toward spectacular failure when the cost of operating is too far above the revenue from operating. Decreasing operations during bankruptcy makes the company less attractive and may not even significantly help the net revenue situation. You really need to be solvent or nearly solvent to have an orderly winding down. That said, wikipedia says they did reduce scheduled flights by 25% in Nov 2025, and I think they reducsd the size of their fleet in a similar time frame, so it could have been that much more confusion and delay.
Because fixed costs are what they are, I think, is the reason you can drive the business quite precisely to the brink of inoperation: it could literally come down to pure luck between how full your planes happen to be and how close you are to the next payment of some critical loan whether you can take off into the air for another month or so.
I have no reason to prefer it anymore other than if it’s the best on route and price. After all, it’s undifferentiated now.
It turns out that in-flight entertainment helps minimize unruly passengers, and flight attendants are there for safety, not just to serve passengers. Same for legroom requirements (egress).
I wonder if empty core will apply to the AI business.
I always wondered why airlines were always running bankrupt… Now I know.
Edit: I thought I recognized your name, I see we discussed pilot unions together on HN a few years back. Can I ask what you have against us? Out of genuine curiosity.
Do you realize you are infinitely closer to a pilot than a billionaire or a founder or whomever it is you seem to care more about than working people?
Class consciousness, solidarity, and workers literally fighting and dying earned you an 8 hour day, social security, and all the workplace protections you probably take for granted.
Every pilot I've spoken to is against school teachers unions and yet doesn't realize that pilots are just bus drivers in the sky.
And yes, this does influence me. When a pilot makes $600k/year instead of $300k per year, my ticket price goes up 10%.
FWIW I'm not interested in flying commercial with non-union pilots so that airlines can become cheap labor body shops.
I'm also not interested in saving money by having Boeing outsource to kick as many people out of their machinist union as they can (and screw those people out of retirement and healthcare benefits).
I got my pilot certificate last year (zero plans to go ATP/commercial). Its a lot of work. Then you've got years of getting paid pennies to earn your 1500 hour ATP. Then you've got more years of taking the crap routes and not making super dollars. Much like a doctor its after you've put in 10-15 years that it starts really paying off.
The union also protects pilots from blame culture and trying to game metrics. If it isn't based on seniority then what metrics do you use? And do you want pilots to start making flying decisions based on on-time percentage instead of safety?
If your business needs to screw over labor to survive you don't have a worthwhile business.
I’m very thankful for the stability and opportunities being a union member has provided my family since I left the tech field, and I wish my friends still in tech could enjoy the same QOL rather than all of us being worse off and upper management being even richer.
And, at the time, they needed a lot of rail across huge distances. The transcontinental rail lines were hugely expensive and had immense amounts of graft involved in every step of their construction, but they got built. Also enabled the crushing of Native Americans, which was a usually-somewhat-tacit (though sometimes very explicit) goal in Washington.
> As tourists and students studying for a semester we aren’t going to interact with electrical or plumbing related infrastructure that acts behind the scenes as long as it works. The infrastructure we are most concerned about as people traveling is transportation, specifically passenger transportation.
The U.S. isn’t a tourist country and hasn’t optimized its rail infrastructure for moving tourists around. Its infrastructure is optimized for moving raw materials and finished products around a huge single market.
I mean, they are still regulated, and they still have to go through regulators to abandon a line (IIUC), but it's much faster than it was.
Thing is, buying miles is normally a really poor use of your money, because the redemption rate isn’t great, and airlines devalue miles all the time. For example, the lowest option at delta is to buy 2000 miles for $70. That’s 3.5 cents per mile, but you can only expect to get a value of 1.25 cents per mile when you redeem them. Which only comes out to $25 in value, loosing you $45 — and that’s assuming you wait to spend miles for a good deal. (Redemption rate is worse during more popular flights.)
Airline miles are just not worth much, which is why people chase like hundreds of thousands of miles at a time through credit card sign up bonuses.
All rewards programs are phrased like this. You save up 10 nights at a hotel by staying there 10 times and you can spend it on a single stay.
Did you notice that the 2,500 mile flight earned/generated/conjured 2,500 miles?
(I know, I know, things can change the number you get...)
There are a lot more points on the "how does your system respond to business failure" spectrum besides low-consequence ch11/better-luck-next-time and debtors' prison.
In the US, workers at a bankrupt company can often show up to the same workplace the next day or week and not skip a beat, the customers might not even know they're doing business with a different entity - only the owners have changed - the old ones get wiped out and their debtors take control.
A 787 isn’t an optimal airplane either, but it’s a damn good design and it’s silly to compare it to things that don’t exist yet.
Can you please expand? This is an expansive claim.
More broadly, our modern world exists because of large scale organizations, the ability for strangers to transact, and efficient markets for allocating credit and capital. Bankruptcy law is a pillar that makes that possible. It enables lenders to extend credit knowing that, if the debtor can’t repay, there will be an orderly process for getting some of the money back. That backstop in turn lowers the barriers to transaction.
Contrast this with what happens in a country without modern bankruptcy law. Businesses in those countries still need to borrow money. But what happens when a debtor can’t pay? Individual creditors have an incentive to harass the debtor and be the first ones to recover their share. Debtors have incentives to pay back certain creditors before others. Creditors might seek to liquidate an otherwise viable business just to get paid. All that means that lending and borrowing is risky. So when people do it, they go through established trust networks, such as families, clans, etc. This dampens business formation and entrepreneurship.