Show HN: Web client analyzing prediction market outcomes

Show HN: Web client analyzing prediction market outcomes(o-u.ai)

2 points by noplace1ikegone 11 days ago | 2 comments

Hi HN,

I made a web client that analyzes prediction markets. Please send your critical feedback to a struggling solo dev.

Functionality:

1. 2hr cron query to Kalshi/Polymarket API for current market pricing and contract data.

2. Query relevant data APIs - 12 right now: NWS, congress.gov, Odds API...

3. Serper/Tavily search on each contract. These APIs pull relevant search results, summarize, and send it back to you in JSON.

4. Structured call to Gemini/Sonnet for each contract or event series containing multiple contracts. There are around 9k active analyses, but each cron only runs price moves or un-assessed contracts. Lots of backstops to prevent analysis runs getting stuck.

5. Store in Postgres database.

6. If a contract/event isn't new and doesn't have a price move, batch submission to Gemini on a 24hr cron to prevent staleness.

7. Bank account balance goes down.

Outlook:

- Good success with lower volume, lower scrutiny contracts.

- Still testing for accuracy but it's going well. Can't find an edge on major sport events because they are so heavily traded by professionals.

- Predictably can't get an edge on high volume contracts where Susquehanna is running a full quant stack.

- Can't compete with retail quant bots on timing due to refresh restrictions.

baigy 11 days ago |

Could be useful for market making. What have you tried doing with it?

noplace1ikegone 11 days ago | |

If you loaded the analysis pipeline on a bot and stuck to certain contracts it might be half decent at market making low volume contracts. The quant specialists reportedly ignore them. I have been working on an idea to buy a large basket of contracts since the advantage of having quick access to all the analyses is breadth, and if your model beats the market consistently you can participate low risk/low impact.