"in May 2026, we entered into Cloud Services Agreements with Anthropic PBC (“Anthropic”), an AI research and development public benefit corporation, with respect to access to compute capacity across COLOSSUS and COLOSSUS II. Pursuant to these agreements, the customer has agreed to pay us $1.25 billion per month through May 2029, with capacity ramping in May and June 2026 at a reduced fee"

Anthropic is paying them 1.25 billion per month to serve Claude in their data centers. That's more revenue than Starlink. In fact that's their largest revenue stream lol.

Crazy this company will IPO for >1B with such bad financials! That said, Starlink seems to be a real cash machine, not as good as ads but enough to support AI bets.

2025:

- Revenue: $18.7B, up from $14.0B in 2024

- Operating loss: -$2.6B

- Net loss: -$4.9B

- Adjusted EBITDA: $6.6B

- Operating cash flow: $6.8B

- Capex: $20.7B

Segment breakdown:

- Starlink / Connectivity: $11.4B revenue, $4.4B operating income, $7.2B adj. EBITDA

- Space / launch: $4.1B revenue, -$657M operating loss

- AI / xAI / X: $3.2B revenue, -$6.4B operating loss

Starlink metrics:

- Subscribers: 8.9M at end-2025, 10.3M by Mar 31 2026

- ARPU: $99/month in 2023, $81 in 2025, $66 in Q1 2026

Balance sheet as of Mar 31 2026:

- Cash: $15.9B

- Marketable securities: $7.8B

- Total assets: $102.1B

- Total liabilities: $60.5B

- Debt / finance leases: about $30.3B

If any company can put profitable data centers in space, it will be SpaceX. But I doubt that any company can. The difficulties of the physics and engineering of cooling seem like they will always outweigh the advantages of keeping your data center on Earth.

I am annoyed by the insistence that the value of this company comes from something that no one has been able to show is possible yet without multiplying it by the obvious risk factor. And they seem to have got other companies like Alphabet[1] and Anthropic to publicize the idea, to give it more credibility.

I do not want my pension to automatically buy shares at $1T, but it looks like it will have no choice.

[1] https://www.reuters.com/science/google-spacex-talks-explore-...

[2] https://spacenews.com/anthropic-to-consider-using-spacex-orb...

It’s surprising just how low the revenue is for SpaceX. There are some 700+ companies with larger revenue figures, and yet just a small handful exceed SpaceX’s proposed valuation.

In 2026 one gets the impression that SpaceX is a huge company, among the largest in the world. It’s wild to see that its business volume is smaller than Northrop, smaller than Apple’s peripherals alone, smaller than Avnet (heard of ‘em?).

SpaceX is incredibly exciting, but I was skeptical when XAI and Twitter were rolled into it. The S-1 here makes it even more disappointing.

I did want a piece of SpaceX but the valuation here is pretty eye watering compared to the fundamentals. I don't think I can put my money into this, although I suspect it will still do gangbusters based on hype and momentum.

Its also a real shame that SpaceX's competitors have not been able to get the same level of momentum. I know Starship has been delayed but its still hard to argue with total mass to orbit they're achieving right now.

Finally ! Can we end the debate about how mind blowingly profitable this company is ?

Mind you, those numbers don't take into account YET the Twitter debt / xAI merger burden - which will run into tens of billions per year.

I just can't, can't wait until this whole Musk fugazzi finally blows up.

Their stated TAM is bonkers. A total of $28.5 trillion: $370B Space, $1.6T Connectivity, $26.5T in AI. With AI becoming more and more commoditized, the AI number is insane.

148 mentions of "rocket". 773 mentions of " AI ".

They make some incredibly outlandish claims over their total addressable market, one can only wonder where $26 trillion dollars in expected AI revenue would even come from, with 22T of that being from "enterprise" when they have no real products yet.

The whole thing looks to be proped up by Starlink which seems to be a genuinely solid business. xAI looks to be costing twice as much as it produces, and we dont even have good numbers for this yet since the deal is so new. This feels like WeWork but if WeWork also owned a successful coffee shop.

So this confirms that SpaceX was making a lot of cash and plowing it back into R&D, and that the X/Twitter/xAI merger is concrete shoes on the good parts.

"XAI, the artificial intelligence company Elon Musk created and recently merged into SpaceX, is not helping on that front. The filing shows SpaceX directed around 60% of its capital spending in 2025 to its AI division, or around $20 billion. And yet that division — which houses the chatbot Grok — lost billions last year, and only grew revenue by about 22%. That’s far below the reported revenue growth rates at frontier AI labs."

https://techcrunch.com/2026/05/20/the-spacex-ipo-filing-has-...

> For instance, Mr. Musk currently serves as Technoking and Chief Executive Officer of Tesla

Sorry, what?

"Mr. Musk or his affiliates may become aware, from time to time, of certain business opportunities ... and may direct such opportunities to other businesses in which they have invested."

"Under our charter, Mr. Musk and his affiliates are not restricted from owning assets or engaging in businesses that compete directly or indirectly with us"

Pg. 56

I think this part is interesting considering Tesla shareholders seem to have lost out on developing (x)AI (AGI?) internally.

"We do not anticipate declaring or paying any cash dividends to holders of our common stock in the foreseeable future."

Sounds like 'never' to me.

Is there any risk to SpaceX that the Musk brand pulls the market cap too far ahead now?

It's not a risk factor I see in the prospectus but seems plausible to me.

Just like with the AI company vesting, I imagine a scenario where a company seeds its own competition by realizing the monetary gains before the work is done. Maybe there's precedent in the dot com bubble. Certainly people were able to sell before the dip a la Cuban and broadcast.com. But I'm thinking more more specifically inducing competitive space ventures.

Elon Musk owns 12.3% of Class A shares and 93.6% of Class B shares. Class B shares have 10x the voting power of class A shares. Overall Elon controls 85.1% of the voting power in the company. If Elon sells any of his Class B shares, they automatically convert into Class A shares.

Retail and institutional investors will have practically no say in the direction of the SpaceX.

> Each share of Class A common stock will entitle its holder to one vote per share. Each share of Class B common stock will entitle its holder to 10 votes per share. Each share of Class B common stock will convert automatically into one share of Class A common stock upon a Transfer.

wow x.ai is a literal money incinerator

Who is gonna buy at the IPO and why or why not? (Assumes you read the S1).

I did. I’m not buying. lol I won’t get an allocation but I also want to see where this shakes out. So in 6 months time if starlink is the gem that people say then sure.

I think he finds a way to trade inflated SpaceX stock to o buy Tesla and call it a day.

Perhaps related:

* "SpaceX IPO Scandal": https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47388640

* "SpaceX and OpenAI: The Mega IPO Grift": https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47648226

So, a significant amount of self-dealing, and Elon Musk has an 85.1% voting share in the company. That sounds like a really great thing. There is no sarcasm in that previous statement. None at all.

Am I reading this right?

SpaceX TAM - "Enterprise AI Applications" is 6T. The other 22T enterprise AI. This is a rocket company pretending it's a frontier AI lab.

Now that the paperwork is out, can anyone confirm this earlier report "Report: SpaceX IPO gives Musk unchecked power and forbids investor lawsuits":

* https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2026/05/report-spacex-ip...

The numbers overall are worse than I expected. I can't believe Serious People are talking about putting this in the market at a trilly.

> Starlink seems to be a real cash machine

It has been said more than once that Starlink financials cannot be analyzed apart from SpaceX financials. Very easy to move the launch costs from one entity to the other depending on whether it is more beneficial to show more revenue for SpaceX or more profit for Starlink.

That's kind of the whole point of a stock market. If you already had a solid revenue stream, you wouldn't need investment.

These numbers would be kind of typical for a software play, since the great thing about software is that you write it once and then sell it many times. They're making a similar assertion for hardware: "fund rocket ship design, and sell it many times (i.e. lots of launches)".

The weird looking part to he is cramming xAI into it. It's a completely different business with little overlap that I can see, in a crowded market that they are far from leading.

I'm surprised launch is only -$0.65B, given just how much were they sinking into launch infrastructure and R&D for Starship.

Guess Falcon 9 the old reliable is still printing cash in the meanwhile.

What is the best way to hedge against this turkey being included in my index funds?

Starlink is a cash machine because the costs are externalised to the rest of the company, all in it's a money pit.

It's pretty much expected that a rapidly growing high tech company is gonna have a lot of losses and debt right? They're just spending huge amounts of money on capex. Not doing so would be like floating minerals in Starcraft: symptomatic of bad macro.

If they cleaved off xAI and let it die, they'd be in much better shape!

Depreciation should be quite substantial - I recall reading that the starlink sats have a 5 year life expectancy?

Typo: I'm sure you meant >1T.

>ARPU: $99/month in 2023, $81 in 2025, $66 in Q1 2026

Oof, are they already on diminishing returns phase?

While I don't think the financials are bad, I agree, this is definitely not a 1T company (but the market can stay irrational ...).