That was discovered in Japan around 2010.[1] The Tokyo municipality sent out people to visit everyone over 100 to find out what they were doing right. What they found was that about 80% of them were unaccounted for, but collecting benefits.[1][2]
[1] https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-pacific-11258071
[2] https://www.npr.org/2010/09/20/129992827/tracking-down-japan...
(I happen to agree with Newman and probably you -- it seems like there is a very clear answer to whether blue zones were ever real or not.)
IMO the whole concept is one of those Occam’s razors that proves especially sharp.
https://www.ucl.ac.uk/ioe/news/2024/sep/ucl-demographers-wor...
Blue Zones absolutely destroyed.
My personal take is that academia is doing very well on the former, and not much on the latter.
Debunked or not, people will repeat this idea for a generation or two until, ironically, anyone that's read the book has shuffled off this mortal coil.
This really captures the reality of longevity, at least in US culture. Whether or not blue zones are verifiable or real, the ingredients to statistical longevity are well understood to minimally include: eat better and maintain a level of fitness.
Those are not easy to do when laziness, sedentary device time and fast food options are just so easily available. So instead, we end up with frozen meals that almost certainly don't contain the same nutrients and definitely don't include the same effort as having to prepare a meal by hand while walking about the kitchen.
Medicine has extended longevity, but the relative ease of our senior years is perhaps robbing us of the quality of that bonus time.
I went to a talk recently where someone who did longevity research listed high-impact things vs low-impact things for a long life. They claimed things like (numbers are from memory)
* eating legumes - live 2 extra years
* eating vegatables - live 3-6 extra month.
* walk 5-6km a day - live 2 extra years
* run several km several times a week - live extra 3 months
I'm not going stop eating veggies and I'm not going to stop exercising but it did make me wonder if their research was true.
More than the positive effects, the list does not list things that account for negative effects, like obesity (very strongly correlated with bad health outcomes), tobacco, alcohol, high non-HDL cholesterol thorough whatever eating habits enable it, etc.
The thing about the negatives is that they depend on dose across your lifetime, so being obese for several years, or having high levels of cholesterol has long-term impact even if you reverse the trend.
If you look at all that in the aggregate I think those factors can explain differences in life span quite well. Then again you still need to look at an individual's genetics and the randomness of cancer and various diseases that, while still affected by the previous factors, have enormous variance.
I believe that these things almost certainly help longevity as a number of independent studies into each of these show that, and it’s intuitively obvious
It sounds so simple, yet incredibly controversial when we go into the details.
The people actually living up to 100+ years usually have been drinking/smoking or doing some other drugs to some extent, and that alone is a whole can of worm in the current climate.
> having friends
They are many unreported elderlies living alone in the middle of nowhere minding their business. I remember a documentary about a guy growing mushrooms (Shiitake) in the forest and only getting down to the town every 6 months to give them to his wife, and he'd get back to being alone until the next time.
Knowing my luck some hyper cancer will just come out from somewhere and take me out in a few weeks or I just slip down the stairs one day. But I try to sway the odds.
It is, in fact, highly debatable whether blue zones exist at all. That is, it is highly debatable whether there are any places in the world where longevity is statistically significantly longer than anywhere else.
Newman says (and insists) that the answer is "there are none". Buettner insists "there are". One of them is wrong.
The median life expectancy means you're only in the top half! But well... simply being well off means you're going to be more likely to hit above average there.
Which actually does leverage your concept somewhat (increase the sample size to include more members, and reduce extreme outliers). There is also plenty of analysis which does benefit by median (vs. mean or maximum) analysis, or by looking closely at observed distributions and outlier characteristics.
You don't have to eat much better. You can trivially supplement. It's far more important to eat less.
Speaking entirely anecdotally – I have come across a lot of really old but still active Sicilian people. People that, at their age, would be immobile and in a nursing home in America, but instead go for walks daily, see friends in the town, etc.
In his findings, the Okinawa people scored highly but they were Japanese and Japan was not liked that much by Americans after the 1940s for some reason. The Mediterranean folks scored highly as well, so the advice was to follow that rather than the Japanese diet.
Ancel Keys did his work before the Boeing 747, affordable cars and the shipping container came along, so people in the so-called Blue Zones were not exposed to international cuisine or the Standard American Diet.
The sad fact is that the Standard American Diet (processed food) does tend to wreck many a blue zone, or even a high standard of cuisine. Also, from the article, good old capitalist greed gets in the way too. The Adventist community did well in the original studies because they were not eating meat, or most of them were not. They were vegan before the word vegan was invented, or at least the 'strict vegetarian' members of their community were. Nowadays it sounds like 'Adventist' + 'LLC', an unholy alliance, you just know it.
Despite blue zones no longer being real, all of the original research by Ancel Keys is legitimate. He had no ideological axe to grind, his work is just exceptional science, albeit easily knocked down by social media nutrition influencer types that happen to get funding from the beef and dairy industries.
Hence the clickbait of the article, times have changed, no longer do people live in communities that are spared from the Standard American Diet (processed food) and yet the OG Ancel Keys work doesn't get a mention.
https://github.com/jaronilan/stories/blob/main/Base%20Rate.p...
Inspired by some random HN comment.
> In 2021, Adventist Health used the blue zones brand to market a $600 million Miami luxury tower that, in addition to boasting a “blue zones center” combining longevity medicine and advanced diagnostics, featured on-site cosmetic and plastic surgery.
I mean they are fairly active, eat fairly lean meals and don't have much constant stress, so they are ideal conditions for longevity.
"Belgian demographer Michel Poulain and Italian physician Giovanni Pes coined the term “blue zone” in the early 2000s to refer to the converging ink dots on the map they were using to validate longevity claims in Ogliastra, Italy."
TLDR areas where people live longer
And in fact, TFA is pretty sympathetic to your position, but not as absolutely certain as you are.
If you're too lazy to Google it for yourself, here's a history of the Blue Zone research, how the original "researcher" is profiting off of it, and the careful work that has been done to debunk it: https://www.science.org/content/article/do-blue-zones-suppos...
<https://web.archive.org/web/20260504122247/https://www.statn...>
HN readers should know standard workarounds.
Existing knowledge is preserved implicitly and be the public, and well-trodden ideas are furthered by industry. Academia is the best place for experiments, which are necessary to avoid stagnation, because there’s only so much obvious (low-hanging) research which isn’t experimental.
Related: “Can random experimental choice lead to better theories?”, https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/26339137261421577
The "license" is a PhD (from a reputable institution) and publications in a select list of high profile journals.
I'm very curious why you'd think otherwise.
Maybe I'm biased as someone who has attained a PhD, but a PhD or master's is definitively not a license. It's almost necessary to have an advanced degree to be taken seriously, but that's not for reasons of normativity, but rather basic competence and a signal of investment. Your degree will not be revoked for the same reasons a doctor's or lawyer's license may be revoked (Francesca Gino lost her tenure, but not her degree). And IMO, your alma mater matters only as a proxy for your academic network; few in the academic world care if you went to MIT per se, but for the connections you made there.
I don't think there's an argument that the scientific establishment rejects many high-value contributions from uncredentialed/undercredentialed individuals.
> publications in a select list of high profile journals
Yeah, this is a serious issue. Although I don't know what it has to do with the question of whether the body of scientists proper should deliberate to establish consensus and distribute resources and prestige. If anything, Elsevier et al. have demonstrated that it can't be worse than letting the free market insert itself so insidiously.
There’s many objects discovered by amateur astronomers for example.
But I am not seeing any evidence that the general public is aware of this. And thus we need more of the articles "asking" this question so that more people are aware of the issues on it.
FYI, the article you linked basically tells the same story as the topical article. Are you too lazy to read it before commenting?
B) Regardless of what story it tells, the article is an opinion piece by a journalist and a cardiologist, not authorities on the topic, and has a misleading title: that "answering [the] question [of whether Blue Zones are real]" is harder than ever. It's not.
Which is fine, although I personally wouldn't use "can't" to describe this stance. In any case, I think the discussion might be smoother if you were willing to review the article under discussion.