There are other possibilities.

- This is a situation they’ve never faced before. It’s hard to simulate and betting on high prices may not be a great bet. Especially given that oil futures aren’t like buying options. You actually have to take delivery.

- They’re expecting a recession.

- They don’t want to invest the money In aggregate that they’d have to in futures to raise the price above certain levels.

- They suspect a lot of oil consumers will simply shut shop and end demand since those prices won’t be sustainable for many businesses. Airlines are already canceling flights.

- They expect the blockades to end sooner rather than later.

It's possible that oil traders are still trading on the assumption that the war will be over Soon™, in which case the expectation is that we won't hit the bottom of our stockpiles and thus there'd be no reason to price in that eventuality. I don't know if I agree with that, and I would certainly be surprised if traders generally thought as much -- but who knows!