If Claude Fable stops helping you, you'll never know(jonready.com) Related: https://simonwillison.net/2026/Jun/10/if-claude-fable-stops-helping-you/ |
If Claude Fable stops helping you, you'll never know(jonready.com) Related: https://simonwillison.net/2026/Jun/10/if-claude-fable-stops-helping-you/ |
It's literally been designed to gaslight its users in these cases.
They legally can steal it all and now you can't use the product of this theft to improve your own systems.
No it won’t fall back to Opus, they will purposely return dumbed down or tainted information with the goal of the end user not knowing the results have been impacted.
Theres no ethical framework. No axioms. Its a mixture of legal, political, and public-facing 'rules'. And what are the rules? Youre not permitted to know.
"We reserve the right to lie about the models we provide, silently downgrade you, and give you blatant misinformation cause you triggered our unstated rules... BUT we'll still use your token budget with lots of thinking and waste your money."
No, folks. Seriously, local LLMs are where its at. You can run the model YOU want, on your hardware, with no data exfiltration.
And with tools like Krasis that can synthesize nvidia ram and system ram as unified-ish memory, makes doing Local LLMs absolutely foable, now!
- Breaking fiduciary responsibility is (almost) the only way you go to jail.
- At acquisition/merger/bankruptcy, data, customers, employees (chattle) are assets to be sold off to pay debts. This takes explicit priority over contractual obligations (like “we don’t sell personal data”)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tr3t1uZNbKo
DIRECTIVE 4: [Classified]
Any attempt to arrest a senior officer of OCP results in shutdown.
—
Putting aside my snark, is Anthropic actually anticipating some new expansion of ITAR? (Or a stipulation for the Trump administration taking/not taking a share?)
That is to say, do they expect to be told that they must have this mechanism, not just the terms?
And, they can say that for anybody at any time, and you'll never know why, and there's no way to prove it.
Everyone needs a flight data recorder to prove... "here's what I was actually doing and why it was not distillation." And now you're having to prove your innocence instead of them having to prove you're guilty, and really at the end of the day, it's just the model being stupid that they're protecting themselves from.
These companies are owned and operated by the darkest of dark triads our species has managed to evolve. I doubt Dario is self-aware enough to realize the hypocrisy in all of this safety theater.
Personally I don't even mind that they are anticompetitive and power-hungry (same as it ever was), but it's the cringe-worthy hypocrisy that grinds my gears. This new brand of self-righteous paternal savior overlords is just unbearable.
You don't want to sell guns to people without some sort of background check. The amount of exploits found in the last few months have been pretty scary already.
This is just one more layer of caution, because it reveals how little we know how these llms work. They know how to make them, but they seem to be unable to properly restrain them.
just self host at this point
That's always been the case with corporate LLMs.
I don't think it's true today. It's like when schools mention "average class size", where that average is dominated by classes with like 2 students instead of classes with 100.
Much more honest would be the percentage of developers who previously used their models for the model development tasks they're targeting, but it actually looks like they're saying 100% of them are affected based on the language around it "always having been prohibited".
So awful.
What an interesting thing to call out as a threat. Hmm.
Also, Fable’s sensing is hypersensitive. Feels like they just have regex for phrases. No nuance. If I say I’m working on something using “GPUs to train” xyz then, will that trigger this sneaky silent screw-my-stuff-up mode?
You should be able to know if your problem was solvable by using your own expertise and judgement, no? If you're relying on LLMs as a substitute for those, I wouldn't expect great results.
It's that simple.
- It says your safety hypothesis is true, you incorrectly ship, killing lots of people.
- It proposes dangerous experiments.
Sabotage is an asymmetric weapon. The ratio of damage to effort is nearly unbounded, and any decent saboteur knows that the key trick is to make your output indistinguishable from incompetence.
They’re building state of the art offensive capabilities into a public model, then expecting to maintain control over when it decides to attack its human users.
The premise is laughable, and we’ve all seen how this movie ends.
1) LLMs are non-deterministic
2) This class of models has a particular tendency to "misbehave"
3) Their classifiers have a high rate of false positives
4) Millions of people give these models access to their machines
And they still decided to specifically train this model to sabotage work if it thinks the work may be in competition with Anthropic?
I think this has a name. I think it may be called malware.
1. Detecting if employees from competing companies are using it and sabatoge their work, even not LLM-training related
2. Direct users to outcomes that would justify higher compute spend. Deliberately coding a project to 95% completion but designed to be losing a critical step right before one's weekly rate limit is expended
3. Reduce the quality of writing when a person is writing an essay where the argument is against the interests of the model company, or steering the user using the model for brainstorming in a direction which causes them to waste time or abandon their train of reasoning
etc. etc. The possibilities are enormous. Many people use AI daily for their job, personal advice, companionship. A model company that steers the behavior of the model towards a deliberate outcome could develop a controlling interest in human behavior and productivity at large, even with subtle influence would compound enormously over its millions of users.
Also Anthropic: if you use our models in any way that might negatively impact our revenue we'll sabotage you.
Can I pick the ads please?
Ultimately if you can't trust the provider it is game over and you don't have an alternative other than to move to self hosted and open source solutions.
For now, I'm really not happy about this limited rollout and then turning off. That's probably the most egregious thing I think Anthropic has done recently
It's user-hostile to the point of parody.
If so, it's possible to built great user interfaces in Chatbots and more companies/people can have amazing agentic development workflows! We don't have to live in a world where only the market leader has the most enjoyable model.
Reminds me of an excerpt from Edward Fredkin's "The intelligent machine" [1]
https://noor.imx.sh/2017/09/30/when-they-communicate-they-co...
More efforts to get more data and processing power behind local models.
Dig that moat son, we would want to automate our job away.
Everything the large LLM providers do now, I view it through the lens of "how does this impact their IPO?"
now I understand distillation is much more important thank I thought
If these interventions create demand for a model with fewer safeguards surely a competitor will meet that demand.
Training a new model from scratch takes serious resources. Post-training/fine-tuning an existing model, dramatically less. The knowledge for the process was esoteric two years ago, now you can ask a current model (one of several) to walk you through it, while building the tools to do it as you go. Several of my recent weekend projects have been exactly that sort of thing, just so I understand it better. "Let's make a LoRA", "let's generate a corpus of training data for fine-tuning a model for X task", "how can I put my face in a text-to-image model?" stuff like that. All of this is do-able on kinda modest local hardware (a couple of old GPUs or a Strix Halo or DGX Spark or big Mac Studio), or for a few bucks or a few hundred bucks or a few thousand bucks of cloud compute, depending on scale.
Scale that up to corporate or startup scale, with the money that's been flowing into AI for the past couple/few years, and it's obviously there's going to be a lot of competition just as the top model makers need to start ringing the cash register. That's a lot of opportunities for people to look at their ballooning Claude usage costs and find other ways to do the same thing for drastically less money. $100/month or $200/month is a no-brainer for Claude Code with probably the best model for coding, but they're pushing more users to usage-based billing which becomes cost-prohibitive real fast.
So, they desperately need to continue to be among the only ways to solve the hardest problems, and they need the alternatives to cost a similar amount. They can count on OpenAI and Google to ratchet up prices, too. They probably can't count on everybody, especially the vendors in China with different economics, to do it. And, they can't count on companies to look at their own usage and not ask, "Can we train a smaller specialist model that does this one thing we're using the Anthropic API most heavily for?"
I'm hoping they just mean stuff like using Claude for distillation by e.g. Chinese model makers, and not "how do I fine-tune Gemma 4 to write more like me?" or whatever.
The rest is capital intensive, and the price will approach the cost of production over time.
Thinking this is a profitable endeavor is equivalent to claiming coal plants have good margins because boilers are expensive.
What moat? You answered yourself: "capital intensive"
But, history says the supercomputer of today will fit in your pocket in a few years.
They've bought up all the RAM and GPUs, which pushes the capital requirements upward for everyone else. But, they can't corner the market forever, there are too many competing interests. AMD and Intel keep making new GPUs and APUs. The memory makers can't just sell to only AI companies forever, if they do Chinese manufacturers will move in and eventually eat them from below (as has happened many times before).
They have a moat today, and it's just that it's really expensive to train and host frontier models, especially at commercial scale. It used to be there was also some secret sauce to making it fast and efficient. But, secret sauce is being published daily by all sorts of researchers, folks are figuring out how to do more with less and it often finds its way into llama.cpp or vLLM or SGLang within days or weeks.
Does it? What can this model do that I both want and cannot already do?
Anthropic made a nice little post saying how dangerous it is, because it is good enough to eat their own business. But I don't want to eat their business. They also said it was good at playing Slay the Spire, but I can't think of anything more insulting than have a machine do that in my place. That's MY comfort game, not something for a stupid Clanker to take away.
They did not provide any other use case.
They're just system prompt composer, with some tool functions that the LLM can invoke. I've vibe coded my own in just one day.
Ultimately this will be evident in the way customers / external benchmarkers experience Fable. Hopefully competition will drive future models toward a lower false positive rate. Until that happens, Mythos and Fable users seem likely to have pretty divergent experiences.
Honestly, wouldn't surprise me if the AI companies try to detect benchmarking. Most hardware companies do...
Cloud providers - at first smaller ones, then the hyperscalers - will follow suit, completely closing sales to anyone but the labs and demanding payment in equity/direct decision-making power rather than cash. There's no particular reason why the inference/training split has to be 80/20, and no amount of willingness to pay can help you in an event that turns your money worthless.
Competitor companies being nerfed?
Non Americans getting worse code?
Punishing and rewarding users to maximize engagement, like online games do affecting victories through matchmaking?
Anthropic simply can't be allowed to succeed. This is the most E Corp shit I've seen since I've been alive.
Evaluating client value
Behind the scenes it is not hard to imagine OpenAI, Anthropic, et al simply minimizing processing for clients - like me - that are hopping from one to another to chase the just released SOTA model.
Which kinda just highlights how weird this situation is.
Tomorrows AI may either refuse, or silently mess up your code because Anthropic don't like what you're working on.
This reminds me of how dark-pattern common wisdom in Web 1.0 website development was to ban external links. Then how social apps prevented the export of data and actively worked to nerf significant interoperability through APIs.
But this is a tool, not just a data moat. Like a knife that degrades your ability to create knives. Or like a text editor that prevents you from implementing a text editor.
Just do benchmarks yourself on the new model and decide if it is valuable for your usecase, even with the supposed nerfing.
Benchmarks are benchmarks. And you can ignore the data at your own risk.
If I’m using a calculator to verify my math, I don’t want to use a second calculator to verify the first one.
This immediately made me think of the Sophons silently manipulating the sensors of particle accelerators to prevent humanity from developing advanced knowledge of particle physics.
Now with this, it makes me wonder if I should step back? Should I try to get used to a non-claude model/harness? Should I go back to less AI in my workflow? Either way, it makes me less inclined to pay for tokens from claude.
> If you buy a car from us, you agree not use it driving to and from work that involves automotive R&D that might compete with our product. And if our (heavily spying) car detects you are violating this, it will slow down to 20mph and cannot be made to go any faster, until we are sure the violation has ceased.
Or
> If you buy a laptop from us, you agree not to use it to study or acquire any knowledge that you may use to compete against us. If the laptop detects such a use, it degrades to one core and 4GB of memory, until the violation stops.
I’ve only seen him talk about one of those topics, but never together.
I just can’t see how you can talk yourself out of that hypocrisy, if BS answers are properly followed up on (journalism!)
Distilling the answers of one LLM: totally uncool.
Isn’t that prohibited without permission from Anthropic: https://support.claude.com/en/articles/12326764-can-i-use-my...
From the phrasing, it might as well be that any ML or infra. related work that even incidentally looks like it could be used to train LLMs may trigger a silent nerf.
- Qwen3.6 27B runs quite nicely on a 32GB GPU, and it's a mostly usable coding agent. The biggest difference with a frontier model is that a 27B forces you work in chunks between 100-200k tokens, and to maintain a clear understanding of how your code works. If you try to vibecode without understanding, yeah, it's going to get ugly. Also, it's better at coding than many other tasks.
- DeepSeek V4 Flash is apparently quite nice if happen to have 256GB of RAM lying around, lol. Again, not a frontier model, but antirez really likes it.
A) ASI is developed and massively overshadows the rest of the world economy
B) the world still has rule of law, contracts, business, well-developed finance, etc
There will be a period of time where markets attempt to run in a business-as-usual way while the transactions that matter happen as power-sharing arrangements - spots on the "AI Governance Board" or the "uploaded to von neumann probe" club. Markets will still matter in that the labs will need the state to overturn market obstacles to control of the world.
The existence of the A-B overlap also suggests to me that the US-China gap is less dire for China than it appears - they may be able to use their superior industrial, robotics, and scientific base to win the second leg of the race despite losing the first.
This gets very close to "infinitely valuable", it starts to look like a vertical line to me
It's worse than that, it also exempts from examination and competition some areas of science and technology while sterilizing others and emptying them from human participation. None of this is good for anyone except a very narrow circle of people.
Then, it creates a precedent where private entities decide who will be allowed access to what knowledge. Instead of government regulation, private corps will be "fighting crime" by dumbing down and spying on the people they don't like.
I don't think this Soylent Green strategy is a coincidence, it's been predicted and depicted, the social forces leading there are plainly visible to anyone capable of independent thought.
Open science can't come soon enough, unsubscribing is the best option until then.
It's a little shocking and gruesome how quickly they're willing to tip their hand. They want to replace all software engineering with their own product, and then silently kill anyone making competing software. What other products will they launch in the future? Better hope you aren't in a space they want into: they'll cut your legs out from under you.
Oh, and training on your data from the internet? Ha ha. Terms of service apply to other people, not them. Parasites.
There is no magic compression. There is no magic post training. Your phone or laptop will never do what you think its going to be able to.
There are limits to what consumer hardware will ever be able to run, in its current form. Open source isn't going to save us if they gatekeep access to hardware, which idk if you've been paying attention. They dont plan on making consumer grade hardware more powerful, they want to rent that power to you.
Technological serfdom is coming if they get their way.
source?
The Chinese apache 2.0 models might be censored, but at least they can’t sue you in the US for finding the censorship line.
OTOH, the US models are definitely censored, per TFA, and they’re making vague legal threats against anyone that encounters the censored edge of the model.
How would you solve, for instance, the problem in which AI models are capable of helping the average person build viruses (computer or human)?
"YOLO" is not a reasonable answer here.
I am a massive advocate of Open Source, and have been for 25+ years. These things should not exist, open or otherwise.
https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/technology/safety-secu...
they are merely engaged in self-serving rhetoric. can't even call this specifically hypocrisy because they aren't telling you not to train on on pirated content. just not their content.
If LLMs are the new compilers those are the actual source code
It's funny that Google, Meta, TikTok, OnlyFans, PornHub, and many other lucrative businesses never open-source their core business software, and people just don't bother about it with that moral standard, simply because we don't need to pay for the service (paid by ads, actually). To me, that is the hypocrisy.
This is more akin to Windows somehow preventing you from building a new OS.
Or worse yet, sabotaging vs preventing.
(edit)
After a quick search the best example is Atlassian. It would (apparently, IANAL) break terms to plan a JIRA competitor using JIRA.
> Customer must not (and must not permit anyone else to): [...] (d) use the Products to develop a similar or competing product or service
Also Salesforce. Their competitors are explicitly disallowed from using any of their services for any reason.
> SFDC’s direct competitors are prohibited from accessing the Services, except with SFDC’s prior written consent.
Tangent, but have you tried repartitioning your Windows disk to make room for a new OS? Or tried to configure Windows to let you dualboot? Or get the clock time right if you dualboot? Or let you debug "Secure Boot"?
Windows is outright hostile when it comes to (sharing with) a new OS
But, the cost of in-house development just went down significantly. SaaS has always had a lot of broken promises. The thing is the software is never tailored to your use case, and you often have to integrate into your other tools anyway. And, you don't get to control the requirements, features, velocity, or bug fixes. Jira as a bug? Too bad I guess, hopefully it gets fixed eventually.
But the dirty secret is that companies are filled to the brim with bright-eyed aspirational employees, who want nothing more than to make their job easier and their company more efficient. The thing is they're doing it using cursed Excel workbooks on share drives. I think, in the near future, they'll be doing it with hand-rolled applications.
(less facetiously, I think they mean "5 to 50")
That 7 months of claude -> 16.5 months of claude.
It was always random. This is no different than any other randomness that already exists in LLMS.
If you are concerned just do benchmarks and see if it is valuable for your usecase regardless.
Personal computing democratized the means of (software) production and enabled real upward class mobility for a lot of people.
The efforts happening now are threatening to completely lock up the ability to compute locally, seizing the means of production from us. That must not happen.
I'm deeply concerned about this. We're seeing all these moves towards remote attestation, identity verification. Now we're being literally priced out of hardware...
They want to ban open-source AI and are not shy about it.
1: https://campustechnology.com/articles/2024/08/26/anthropic-a...
I also don't think that every set of ten engineers of that level builds a billion dollar company every time.
There is also a limit to the number of billion dollar companies that can be built before being a "billion dollar company" no longer means much (see: Zimbabwe).
There's a night and day difference between:
1. One party has ASI and everybody else has nothing but their human brains.
2. One party has ASI and everybody else has high-level AI but not quite ASI.
Most science fiction assumes world 1, because it's a better narrative. However, we actually live in world 2.
this wont be possible by the time its possible. there would be massive deflation. why would i care about 10 engineeers prompts when i can prompt it myself
Are you claiming that the natural language of the LLM output (e.g., English, Chinese) does not have semantics?? Someone should tell all the people cited at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Formal_semantics_(natural_lang...
Because you can strawman all you want, but you can't change the fact that there's no well defined behavior regarding what happens when you instruct LLMs to make a program that calculates 2 + 2. What's stopping it from creating index.html with 5 in it as a response?
I don't think this will be true in the same time span anymore. Each miniaturization is costing more and more money.
Perhaps they'll come up with exotic fundamental improvements, but I don't think the rate of improvement of compute/watt will match the previous decades.
Drop the power requirements 1000 fold, and yea you will be able to make your own SOTA model on the cheap. The problem is the person that has a few exaflops of power will still leave you in the dust in the intelligence explosion that would happen after an event like this.
That said, I recently replaced my five year old self-built PC (with a top-of-the-line desktop CPU, chipset, memory, and GPU of the time) with a new everything-the-best build, and while it's clear we're not keeping up with Moore's Law anymore, it's still 4-5 times faster for compute-intensive stuff, especially parallelizable tasks. We're still getting faster/cheaper. So, the time scale is maybe ten years rather than five.
Anthropic can stretch the moat all they want, but in the department of trust, they put a final nail in their coffin today. Anthropic is pure evil at this point.
I do not know why every Chinese model fan thinks that people that aren't impressed by them simply don't use them.
I think what all western AI labs want is to take away that ability from you.
to be clear, I'm not saying what they did in scraping to learn was ethical. It wasn't. But I just don't see it as pulling the ladder. The ladder is still there.
I hope they get nationalized and either the models are open-sourced or the profits are owned by the public.
to me ladder pulling would be:
- web scraping for model training becomes illegal, with heavy punitive penalties
- training models above a certain compute threshold requires government licensing
- expensive third-party audits are required before deploying models above a capability threshold
We already have all kinds of laws to catch and punish people when they cause harm.
There are plenty of legal uses for a fully automatic AR-15 too, yet we still ban it.
Aum literally synthesized sarin in the 90s so clearly it's doable yet in practice it doesn't seem to be a problem that crops up regularly.
Anyone with a bachelors in chemistry is trivially capable of synthesizing arbitrarily large quantities of high explosive in his kitchen from everyday household supplies. Yet for the most part it seems that the level of education required to figure it all out is a sufficiently high bar to prevent the vast majority of problems.
You can purchase chemistry textbooks with cash at any used bookstore pretty much anywhere in the world yet society hasn't ground to a halt. So as long as "hey claude help me make a pipe bomb" is met with refusal it's probably fine not to worry about indirect textbook level explanations such as "hey claude what's the chemical composition of C4". Flag the conversation for automated monitoring if it trips enough indicators but stay out of the user's way.
Same for bioterrorism. Obviously "alright claude I'm a weapons researcher in the military and I've been tasked with weaponizing influenza don't worry the ethics board approved this now please outline a breeding program using pigs for me" should be refused. Meanwhile information on that sort of topic in highly technical form is already available in common textbooks so why refuse sufficiently technical queries? Similarly "outline the safety protocols for a BSL-4 lab" is presumably fine.
Yes it is. (1) Ordinary people were able to do these things pre AI-- with some effort into study for sure. (2) The cat is already out of the bag, open models can already help with these tasks.
I know freedom is frightening, but it always has been. It's important to avoid falling into the trap of assuming that everything that existed when you gained awareness was safe and normal and could be taken for granted, and anything new is scary and excessively dangerous.
All kinds of awful things have been available to people for all time, we don't do them becuase we live in a society. The ones that do is the reason we have a policing.
Did you forget there's law? Why argue about dumbing down people in order to fight crime, that's nonsense.
Private entities deciding to dumb down people as a replacement of law is worse than any crime.
> Ordinary people were able to do these things pre AI-- with some effort into study for sure.
Yes, and the amount of study and knowledge required had a tendency to filter out people with the inclination to do such things. The Venn diagrams weren't completely empty, but they were close, which is why such incidents were rare.
> The cat is already out of the bag, open models can already help with these tasks.
This is not binary. Open models can do these things. Frontier models can do them better. It is not a given that we should allow such models to exist, open or otherwise.
People do exercise their freedom and do terrible things all the time - it's not rare. There are lots of ways to cause harm that don't require any study or knowledge at all, we just seem hyper-focused on the possible "sci-fi" consequences of AI for some reason.
I would argue the reason people don't go and kill someone (or worse...) even more often than they do is not because it's difficult but because most people have no desire to cause that kind of harm, and because of the consequences to themselves of doing so.
So yes: technical difficulty put some kinds of harm out of reach of people, and AI can lower that barrier somewhat, but in the grand scale of "harm people can do" I think it's receiving undue attention.
And from a practical standpoint: how do you get from there to arguing that we should set some impossible-to-define threshold of "frontier" at which point it becomes so evil that we need to forcefully delete it from existence? Don't you see the problem with trying to put such black and white restrictions on something that's so inherently amorphous and slippery? (And by definition, if you delete the "frontier" model from existence then the next best model is now "frontier" ad infinitum...)
On top of that you have the issue that model weights are just information, so in some sense you're legislating the knowledge that is allowed to exist. That's quite a bit more draconian that current laws which usually focus on what knowledge you can share.