Really curious to be a fly on the wall in discussions between the exec teams (CFO specifically) of these companies.

I happen to be reading a biography of J D Rockefeller right now, and there are a lot of parallels to the early oil industry, but I think the problem is, if AI is a commodity than they’re going to be squeezed from all sides.

If prices keep dropping 90% per year from competition and not underlying economics, how do you account for the capex costs of a gpu? You buy a gpu assuming one rate of return and it’s .001 percent of that 5 years later?

On top of that the longer you can depreciate a gpu, thr more value you can get out of them, but those long depreciation schedules compete with gpu’s failing g faster than expected and GPU’s getting old, and per the above, prices may fall faster than the benefit you get from longer use.

I think the problem is most of the arguments towards the bullish case always has a compounding economic factor in the other side. Maybe this is why these companies are so desperate to cash out.