I was sceptical of Amazon early on too. But they had a couple of things going for them that SpaceX doesn't have: one was a huge potential market. People were already buying books, Amazon made it easy to do from your home, with next day delivery. The other was that Amazon had no competition in that space, nobody else was doing online ordering with next day delivery. It wasn't obvious that customers would prefer to shop that way though.

In the case of SpaceX, their potential market is users of AI. This market is small now, but could potentially grow. And they have large competitors in this space. What can they offer that the others don't? As for their other businesses, they are ahead in launch, but there are other potential competitors, and it's not that big a market. Communications, the one business where they are making a profit, has lots of large competitors. Their only moat there is areas where it is too expensive to run fiber, which means mostly mobile applications and remote areas.

During SpaceX's first earnings report call, they'll announce a loss, but Musk will make outlandish statements, and the stock will pop.