SpaceX Drops 14% in One Day, Price Now Below IPO Launch(finance.yahoo.com) |
SpaceX Drops 14% in One Day, Price Now Below IPO Launch(finance.yahoo.com) |
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-22/spacex-ki...
I remember the same headlines right after Facebook's IPO. The discourse was very much that it was obvious that a website to connect with your friends wouldn't make money.
- Price/Sales about 128x (NVIDIA had a peak of a 40x at its peak)
- Bought Twitter per 44 billions. Inflated its valuation to $250 billion just by integrating it into X.AI
- EnterpriseValue/EBITDA about 219x (30x for scaleup business) and negative Price-to-Earnings
- Low free-float trick (minimal public shares available)
Even the market efficiency hypothesis struggles to justify it
This is why people sometimes use forward P/E but that does have the obvious drawback of the denominator not actually existing yet.
However with SpaceX the valuation is extreme and also can they grow at that rate for years on end? Potentially not
https://advisors.vanguard.com/investments/products/vti/vangu... (there's a search by ticker under Holdings)
It feels like a lot of retail buyers know the emperor is naked, but are still acting on greed, thinking they can "catch the falling knife" and time the market departure to profit from the hype...
Of course active investors could do something like short Space X by exactly the amount that their funds have to more or less "cancel out" their investment, but most people aren't active investors.
I now use the Interactive Brokers MCP to make a "pseudo QQQ" which has all companies except Tesla and SpaceX in there, and I otherwise use the same weights as the official QQQ. In order to avoid tax overhead, my rebalancing is buy-only, no selling, so it's not a perfect analog to QQQ but it's close enough and I at least got some of my capital out of SpaceX.