We Don't Have to Be This Bad at Improving Society(kasperjunge.com) |
We Don't Have to Be This Bad at Improving Society(kasperjunge.com) |
Every time the government hires a group of people to do X, that automatically creates a class of people who:
1. Depend on the government continuing to do X for their livelihoods
2. Are experts in X and know far more about it than any government official
This creates an automatic constituency that will fight tooth and nail to keep X going no matter what. And step one of that fighting will be to make sure that the official report answering the original research question "Did X work?" will never be a clear "No."
And God help any politician that ignores the official report and cancels X anyway. Now the problem that X was intended to solve is entirely their fault, and there's an army of X experts running to every media outlet in the country making sure the general public knows it!
2. Which means that there is generally no policy that makes everyone happy. So you need a party with a program that aims at finding compromises that are acceptable for everyone.
3. But nobody will vote for such a party. Why would you vote for a party that gives you 50 % of what you want if there is a different party that is more aligned with your views and preferences and promises to give you 90 % of what you want?
4. In consequence the political direction tends to hop between extremes instead of settling on compromises. One group gets really unhappy with the current situation, shows up for elections, votes their party into power, moves the situation into the direction of a different extreme, until others get unhappy enough to start the process all over again.
5. Even in political systems where [sometimes] a coalition of parties exercises the power and they are forced to compromise, the outcome is all but ideal. Things move slowly because finding compromises is hard if you do not really want to compromise. Voters look down on the party they voted for because they are not delivering what they promised but only compromises.
I guess the moral of the story is that the voters have to realize that their view is not the only valid one and that voting for compromises would probably yield better outcomes than voting for extremes and either going in that direction for some time until turning around or maybe arriving at a forced compromise that no one voted for.
[1] Exercise for the reader, find something politically relevant that does not depend on perspective and personal preferences.
Although your plane crash example falls afoul of the broken window fallacy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parable_of_the_broken_window
Plus the simple fact that, by the same logic, you can try to both-sides plain murder on the ground that the murderer wants to murder (and, again, that the undertakers and coroners and such must be kept in business). Clearly, whilst every policy will have supporters and detractors, some detractions are more worthy of consideration than others.
[...] some detractions are more worthy of consideration than others.
This is probably quite hard to justify in general.
I want zero cents of my money to be wasted on climate change, I live now and I want to enjoy my life as much as possible. I do not care if the planet gets burned to a crisp in a hundred years when I am dead.
One can certainly have a different perspective and vehemently disagree, especially if you have children that will have to live through that future, but otherwise? How would you argue that this position is somehow less valid than any other?
1. Societies are heterogenous, and some groups are always benefitting from the status quo, which will then rebel against any potential changes.
For instance, in Germany (and multiple other European countries), forming a GmbH (LLC) requires in-person sessions with expensive notaries, who will read the entire paperwork out loud.
This made sense when it was invented in 1892 because company formation was extremely rare, always required large facilities and upfront purchases, etc.
Today, this requirement only benefits notaries, as I reckon extremely few people would voluntarily hire a notary to form their company.
But of course notaries would be against making their services legally required! And of course, if anyone suggests loosening requirements, they will spell out all of the terrible fraud that would happen if company formation didn't require a thorough legal review.
That's an example for something relatively obvious. It gets much harder with genuinely complex topics (pensions? tax reform? healthcare?).
2. Many initiatives to improve society fail because they're viewed through a prism of administration/policy, not the actual people impacted.
Take modern urbanism, which cleanly separates where people live (residential areas), where they work (commercial districts), where they shop (malls), and where they spend their free time (recreational centers, etc.)
This beautifully serves people who plan and administer because it makes their work massively easier vs. a tangle of apartment buildings with a coffee shop and clothing boutique on the ground floor and a playground for the kids in front.
It checks the boxes of daily life, but the people living through it feel alienated from their community with these single-purpose urban areas.
3. We have a bias towards actionism.
We tend to think that big, complicated problems need big, complicated solutions, and politicians (who are evaluated on perception, not results) need to be seen designing and implementing those big, complicated solutions.
Massive amounts of infant mortality were prevented by simply making doctors wash their hands, and Semmelweis (who came up with the hypothesis) was so ridiculed for that idea that he died in an insane asylum.
It's sadly often unacceptable to say "we're going to make a little tweak that'll have a ton of downstream effects and solve this massive problem in 5 years".
Individual workers work on failing initiatives as long as they get paid. The outcome of the initiative may be bad for "society". But was it good for the individuals working on it? Maybe they got paid well. Maybe they enjoyed the work? Maybe the work was easy because they knew that it would fail anyway, so they didn't have to put much effort into it?
Maybe it was also good for the management or politicians? Maybe it was a step up in their career. And maybe, if they could jump ship before the failure became obvious, they could climb up the ladder to get to an even better position? You can always blame your successors for ruining the project.
And maybe it was good for whoever ordered it? If it's a local project, maybe they got subsidies from federal government bodies, and they don't even care whether it succeeds, as long as it created employment and the illusion of progress? Or if it's a private project, maybe they just tried a moon shot that, if it fails, was useful as a tax write-off?
In real life, there are so many layers to a 'failed' project. It can be a failure for some and a success for others. And those for whom it is a success will defend it, maybe even deceive to keep it running.
This is most obvious when network effects are present (e.g. local immunisation efforts vs country-wide immunisation), but it's surprisingly common in other government-related areas like welfare, childcare, social security etc.
Edit: Another comment has reminded me that affordable public transport is the perfect example of this: Incrementally building out a public transport system will almost always fail, as the initial lines (be they buses, light rail, etc) will typically not be successful enough to justify the cost of building the line. If, instead, a system is built out universally and simultaneously, the utility (and thus income) of each line increases due to the interconnected nature of the network.
We're missing guardrails to allow safe experimentation and we're missing institutions to provide affordances.
I think the difficult bit is figuring out how to seperate the goodness of centralized decision shaping and the badness of centralized power accumulation.
The populace doesn't have much in the way of alternative choices for politicians that would follow the results of actual experiments nor fund them, its not really an option being offered, I think partly because its a tough sell compared to "we will do X". "We will test a variety of options and then do the best" requires more trust and its a low trust environment.
You'd need to check something like take a group of high-earners, increase their tax rate by say 100%, increase their cost of living, and validate that they neither leave the experiment nor work significantly less.
If a politician does want to shape policy based on research evidence for what would improve society, this captured segment of the electorate is weaponized against them.
> The [solution] is to organize the work into the smallest possible learnable chunks and continuously alternate between doing and learning.
It would be more convincing if the article gave examples of where that solution had been tried and succeeded. I mean this must have been tried somewhere, surely.
Just implement good laws, do it right once. Yes it will hurt to not have a smooth transition but it’s better than having meetings about it for ten years.
The harsh reality is that all governments could solve most problems easily, they just couldn't be bothered.
What one person thinks improves society, another person thinks makes society worse. In a democracy, they both can vote; in a non-democratic system, the one whose desires are constantly thwarted by the non-democratically-accountable governance officials might revolt.
The US already does run experiments thanks to the states, and we run many simply by having many countries.
The problem is not lack of experiments the problem is lack of political will to implemented known good solutions.
It's not enough to try things, we also need a social system in place to allow trying to be safe and useful, even on failure.
Indeed. We have extensive and widely repeated evidence that walkable streets, cheap mass transit, free healthcare, decriminalisation of drugs, and a 4-day workweek are all strict improvements over our current societies.
And yet somehow all of those are viewed as radical reforms.
Often, the reason is that some constituency, possibly a small one, that strongly benefits from the existing status quo, actively works against the political experiment using the judicial system; and the rest of the electorate doesn't care enough to fight them effectively to make the experiment possible.
This is actually a problem of decentralization, not of centralization. A stronger central planner would be able to just crush a small group of concerned citizens who are independently organizing to fight a political experiment that impacts them, and do that experiment anyway. This is a good thing if you expect that the political experiment is just fucking over some innocent people for no reason; and it's a bad thing if you think that the small, dedicated group of activists are actually rent-seekers in some sense who are benefiting themselves and making everyone else in society slightly and diffusely worse off.
The political experiments should be chosen and driven by small units in order to be safely contained.
Planning shouldn't be a top-down activity, strategy should be. Meaning , the bounds for decisions and the rules of play must be centrally determined, but not the experiments themselves.
I don't completely follow the last bit of your comment. It sounds like you agree that a centralized planner doesn't have enough context to make system wide decisions. Am I right?
The west in general used to be a lot more efficient. IMO the main cause is exactly the problem the Soviet Union used to have, and China still does: centralisation.
one thing I've come to respect about the Chinese is that while they make huge decisions that sometimes have disastrous consequences, they don't make the same mistakes twice.
At this point they have fed information from their environmental impacts into reforesting entire mountains and improving air quality.
They went in on Evs. not just subsidies but recognizing that you need an entire supply chain. so while americans bitch constantly about the failing power grid and how we can't switch to evs cuz it would be disastrous, the chinese built renewable energy projects and a massive DC transmission line accross the entire country. This is also a big part of why they can provide AI services for way less than america can.
More precisely, our elected governments are governed by the financial class.
I am not suggesting that capital markets should not exist or that they should behave as governments compel them to; I just want the people who operate capital markets to be accountable to the people through the proxy of law and regulation. It should be an administrative profession, like accountancy.
Public opinion in Western societies has become far more fragmented and heterogeneous, largely because of the internet. There is much more internal disagreement and constant contestation. I think that is a strong example of a factor that significantly increases the cost of complexity.
In a way, that is why we are now trying to emulate certain aspects of centralization. The United States does a relatively good job at this, and I am not making a judgment on whether that is positive or negative. But here in the European Union, we are so decentralized that we often struggle to reach agreement on major issues.
"In the last 70 years" does a lot of work in your argument, as it includes a full blown revolution, counter-revolution, eras of political turmoil etc. How about the last 20-30 or so years after things stabilized there?
Also, isn't the point of the parent that it's OK to have "plenty of failed projects", as the question that starts this thread is about our inability to run political experiments. Obviously some of them will fail - that's what experiments are made to test, not guaranteed success.
Failures are everywhere, even the OP acknowledged that. I think the more important question is what a system does with those failures and how well it can learn from them and improve. (And if course, what does "improve" even mean? What are the targets that the system optimizes for?)
So my question would be, could China learn from those failed projects and improve its policies? How many disastrous decisions were there in the last 5 years in contrast to 70 years ago?
The US does this hilariously wrong. Like giving each state money for public metro system and then each state implements a unique incompatible solution that really only differs slightly from the alternative. In a competitive private market that fine, industry standards can emerge. But in terms of metro system that a country only builds very rarely having the system be the same between metros makes a lot of sense.
Its not like these are experimental concepts that nobody in the world knew about already.
This reads as massive cope because China has lifted ~800M people out of extreme poverty [1][2] and the transformation of the ordinary lives of Chinese people is almost unbelievable. More cope here is "yeah but that's Tier 1 cities". But look at rural life in small villages. Even 20 years ago people were still drawing water from wells and didn't have indoor plumbing.
Now? High speed internet on smartphones, modern houses, indoor plumbing, reliable electricity, electric vehicles, etc.
What we have in the West is a captured system of parasitic wealth transfer from the young and poor to the old and rich where society and infrastructure is crumbling. My prediction is that the 21st century is going to show the central planning (in China) is going to produce far better outcomes for the vast majority of people.
[1]: https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2022/04/01/l...
[2]: https://amro-asia.org/an-exemplary-journey-in-eradicating-po...
Many nations have tried to plan their economy. Most perform badly and end up as footnotes in the history of the Democratic Republic of Tinpotonia. It takes a lot of skill to plan an economy.
The star performer in living memory was South Korea: best dictatorship! But it completed its succession plan and pivoted to free markets, so the example is forgotten.
Mao kicked off by outlawing sparrows, causing famine. His rule survived that, but it could have gone very differently.
Xi, and Wu before him, are probably just good at it. Even so: the demographic problem.
I would say that democracy has inherent problems: electability is a poor proxy for leadership quality; election cycles nullify the long-term view; electorates are incompetent and vacillating. I expect a committee to choose better rulers than hoi polloi, except in the dimension of accountability to the populace.
It is indeed the worst possible system except for all the others.
What does being "the same culture" have to do with anything?
Aside the fact that Taiwan is much smaller (and different situation), Taiwan was cold-war period favored partner to the west, and started modernized industrialization way earlier (in the 80s and 90s it was a dominant industrial partner, like Japan had become earlier).
China had to do this much more recently, and brought 100s of millions out of poverty in the process. Taiwan is city-size compared to China, whereas the China comparison includes like 70x the population, a large percentage in rural areas.
> "They recovered a little after Deng"
The understatement of the millenium.
Even to 40 years ago.
This is just objectively true for the waste, waste majority of the population.
Like the One-child policy
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_child_policy
Or the Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cultural_Revolution
Or the persecution of Uyghurs
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Persecution_of_Uyghurs_in_Chin...
Or the 2021 Hong Kong electoral changes
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Hong_Kong_electoral_chang...
If a society makes every problem a culture war, there can't be any progress until it gets so bad it can't be ignored anymore. But I feel even that is bit too optimistic.
The problem the EU has are when decisions are centralised (its an EU decision rather than a member state decision) but require agreement by multiple member states with different interests. In the US, AFAIK, the federal government makes decisions about things that apply to the whole of the US without requiring the agreement of states. The EU's problem is not lack of centralisation, its a mismatch between who makes decisions and where they apply. You could also solve the problem by delegating more powers back to member states (or by letting the Commission and Parliament make all EU wide decisions without requiring the agreement of member states).
The US was able to bomb Iran and Russia was able to attack Ukraine because basically a single important person said so. Personally, I consider the War Powers Act to be one of the worst laws that your Congress ever voted in.
The EU cannot do such things before obtaining consensus of multiple nations and I am happy for that, as we have had a lot of disastrous decisions in our past already.
My favorite tidbit is the First World War. The Germans in Austria were gung-ho about attacking Serbia, but the Hungarians were not, and they had the power of veto. If István Tisza held firm, the war might have been avoided, maybe just for a few years, maybe indefinitely, or maybe at least Central Europe could have stayed out of it, leaving it to the German Empire and the British to duke it out between themselves.
But in a more federal Austria-Hungary, where the Czechs and the Poles would have their own vetos, that particular war of 1914 would definitely have been off the table. Neither of those nations was interested in a pseudo-colonial war of conquest in the Balkans against another Slavic nation.
Is that actually the case, or just old wives tales / cope, based on what used to be the case in USSR?
The question isn't even if the "data coming up the pipeline is often much more rosy than reality" to some degree, but if that's to a degree that's worse than the west or better, and enough to be a real problem.
That said, ecology is more important to me in general. The economy exists within the environment, not the other way around. It's definitely a more nuanced relationship than "either-or" suggests though...
Smart policies like land value tax are good for both.
Tons and tons of things are good for both.
In general economy is more important because people, but people also live in the environment. But not building a mine because of tailings is a bit silly as it just mean a mine somewhere else is built that handles tailings even worse. These things can be done reasonably.
And if you actually price in the environment destruction in the supply chain cost, we could do a lot of things.
Ding ding! We need to internalise the externalities. Put a value for pollution right into the retail price tag. Capture it as tax, and reduce other tax correspondingly.
In counties with a sales tax, this move could be approximately neutral to a basket of goods. More realistically, it will generate outrage. Fuck 'em. There's already outrage against megacorps. Take the economic hit in the short term, rebalance shopping habits, profit.
My take is that it is kind of exclusive today, because the economy is designed and limited against the ecology, but that's not a fundamental given. It comes down from the choice of humanity to extract itself from nature. That's a choice and a story we can identify, criticise, and counter with another choice. Which would take some time, but... that's all we have.
There is mixed but often promising evidence depending on context. For example there is quite a bit of urban planning evidence that shows that walkable environments improve physical activity and health outcomes and other outcomes. And so on for the other topics.
It’s also worth noting that current systems are not the result of a unified scientific optimization process. So even incremental changes that are supported by good evidence seem worth seriously exploring.
"Somehow." Indeed, it is a mystery. 0.01% of the population has direct control over something like 50% of society's resources. Society moves to enrich them, at everyone else’s expense. Curious that.
You need to get a grip and get some perspective on what China is like for most people.
You can be critical of current day China without losing your brain.
> Do you have any notion what China used to be like?
Try not to be so patronising.
My observation, simply, is that in fixing the old centrally-imposed cruelties, they've created new ones. The current improved situation is predicated on the new cruelties. It is on any philosophical level incorrect to suggest things are better for everyone when they have become deliberately and systematically worse (actually quite recently) for particular underclasses. It is not, in fact, better for the majority if society mistreats the minority; it is an indication of a sickness in "progress" if it invents a new minority to mistreat because progress is predicated on new centrally-managed fears.
But they do. Even if we limit ourselves to post-1949 China.
Once Mao died, the Party decided to never allow a single leader to arise again, and switched to an oligarchic model. But Xi was able to break that system and once again you have a sort of cult of personality with One Dear Leader at the top, although we have to admit that Xi is a lot saner than Mao ever was.
But the negatives are once again rearing their head, worship of a single person, personal loyalty triumphing over competence, and the Chinese economic machine, subject to whims of a single person, seems to be slowing down.
The whole world is swinging in that direction. its not like the US is any better in that respect in our current political climate.
The one genuinely popular populist leader who seems to be holding is Modi in India.
Sounds hell of a lot like USA right now.
Yeah, the US has been flirting with similar approaches quite heavily, but I don't believe that Trump will get 15 or more years in power out of it like Xi managed to.