Emarketer’s data finds that standalone chatbots like ChatGPT,
Microsoft Copilot app, Google AI Mode, and Amazon Alexa for
Shopping (formerly Rufus) in U.S, will generate less than $1
billion in ad revenue this year, and just $5.41 billion by 2030.
Just because there are no ads now does not mean there never will be. Google search was run without ads for the first years too.
If GPT can maintain or grow usage, the ad dollars will be there given the enormous scale. There is a hundred billion dollars plus worth of advertising waiting in the LLM space. It would be surprising if Facebook doesn't contract for example, losing ground to LLMs on advertising over the coming decade.
Everything else is optimizing the targetting data in some kind of behavioral way to get better intent data or to reach the right users.
I have no idea where something like Chatgpt stands on that axis, it has actually very little attention (in hours per day) for most people and I am not sure that it has enough intent signals.
The only actual product was "Loopt", some bs location sharing app that nobody used or ever heard about.
tldr is: They either get a successful IPO to stave off bankruptcy for a couple more months, or they're going to be bankrupt by the beginning of next year.
Not to mention that being "on pace" is usually a term that means "keeping pace with".
“An analyst thinks OpenAI may miss its 2030 ad revenue target by 90%” is what the article says.
I'm not surprised the iteration we're seeing now is perceived as failing: on the few remaining screens where ads are still present for me, they're between highly irrelevant to flat out repulsive. There are a few brands I will never touch with a long stick, purely as a result of their disturbing, disgusting ads -- again, charitably, a negative-sum game.
An endless forest of mirrors reflecting no one but the user.