IBM Stock has worst day(cnn.com) |
IBM Stock has worst day(cnn.com) |
Go buy it right now, profit tomorrow.
But strategically they decided against a Hardware play and went for software:
2022- ChatGPT released
2023 - IBM buys Manta Software Inc undisclosed sum
2023 - IBM buys Software AG's StreamSets and webMethods $2.33 billion
2025- IBM buys Hashicorp $6.4 billion
2025 - IBM buys Confluent $11 billion.
With the caveat that I work for IBM but have no inside knowledge about anything important, it doesn't seem very bad to me? Overall profit is going to be down a tiny amount below expectations.
Jan 28: IBM Mainframe Business Jumps 67%
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46802376
Feb 13: IBM tripling entry-level jobs after finding the limits of AI adoption
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47009327
Feb 23: IBM Plunges After Anthropic's Latest Update Takes on COBOL
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47128907
Apr 30: Granite 4.1: IBM's 8B Model Matching 32B MoE
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47960507
Jun 25: IBM debuts sub-1 nanometer chip technology
In fact, the ideal scenario is that the price drops just before your vest and then bounces back up after.
(so far)
Assume an employee's marginal tax rate is 40% and their capital gains rate is 15%. Then there are 2 scenarios:
1. Vest 100 shares at $100 apiece. After tax that's 60 shares * $100 = $6000 total.
2. A sudden price drop causes 100 shares to vest at $50. After tax that's 60 shares * $50 = $3000. Later the price rises to $100 and the employee sells them. Another $3000 in capital gains, leaving $2550 after taxes. Total = $5250.
This is only true if you "sell" 40 shares immediately at the time of vesting to pay the tax bill. Because you lose the 40 shares, you don't have as much shares to appreciate in the subsequent upswing. However if you prefer to settle your tax obligations in cash instead, you don't have this issue and you'd actually pay less taxes (assuming the upswing does materialize). It's risky though, because you're basically taking a long position on the stock, and if it falls even more, you'd lose even more money.
I wasn't aware there's a choice. That's a paycheck withholding essentially.