I hope the crash, when it comes, won't wipe out peoples pension funds... but I've been charging up my schadenfreude towards the breathless AI hypeboys for a LONG time
Maybe capacity spend will go down for the time being and the hardware stocks will go down. Maybe a bunch of these startups will go backrupt or get acquired. The defensive play of building out the infrastructure and software stack is probably going to continue. These companies have been playing catch up with nvidia for a while now and won't make that mistake twice.
It's kind of mind blowing how much work remains to be done with these models (e.g. finding ways to integrate them in the rest of the economy, finding more resource efficient ways to run them, ads monetization).
It seems like right now, a lot of stocks like oracle, adobe, IBM, and intuit are getting reevaluated.
Microsoft has to be shaking. For the first time in three-or-so decades they were finally involved in something big when it happened instead of being years behind everyone else. If this crashes they're going to have people jumping out of windows.
So the day after the bubble bursts you'd see exactly this: a very recent very sharp drop, preceded by 12 months of solid gains.
Anecdotal but this is the current state at our company.
Anecdotal but
Their stock hasn't really seen much upside from this whole AI thing, so I don't really see how they'd get punished that badly. At least they have a public cloud business where they can rent out capacity to reduce the loss.
Maybe if OpenAI goes bankrupt, they might be punished more. Or it could be an opportunity for them to scavenge. Oracle is a lot more fucked if that happens.