Kelly Criterion Simulator(kellysimulator.com) |
Kelly Criterion Simulator(kellysimulator.com) |
So there is a term called "Full Kelly" which is were you actually wager the amount given by the formula. This is pretty aggressive and not for the faint of heart. Usually, you do something like a "half Kelly" where you halve the suggested bet amount. Usually because you assume you might be incorrect in your estimated advantage.
What I haven't found yet is some mental math rule to apply this. Given some assumed advantage, what percentage should I "wager"?
More generally, look for any area where bets can be made, and professionals exist who make their living winning such bets. There are professional poker players and sports gamblers; there are not professional roulette players.
This comes up more when you have (or at least believe you have) information that the counterparty doesn't have.