Tungsten prices are already quite easily explained by China restricting exports and reducing production, existing wars consuming munitions, and Western governments rebuilding stockpiles. There's no need to point to some ominous new conflict. We've got more than enough.

All in all, some very weak evidence on show here, such as pointing to Tasmania’s Dolphin mine reopening as a supposed signal. It did not suddenly reopen because some spooky insiders sensed an imminent war. The mine's redevelopment was financed in 2021 and commercial production began in 2023, which was itself responding to Chinese supply concentration and the favourable economic situation at the time.