They can use this ability to keep oil prices down to sort of back up their strategic goals. They could block a strait themselves while taking Taiwan. They could open the stores for concessions in other ways. They can also use this current Iran War to study how the US handles economic problems like oil-inflation. By having their finger on the scale they can push and pull and see how the US reacts in a war scenario.
The Iraq war lasted nearly a decade. Afghanistan 2 decades. And the US accomplished nothing. They made things worse, I don't need to go into details because that is an easy lookup.
That's ultimately the purpose of this war. Israel wants us to fight Iran because "Iran was close to making a nuke", which is an excuse they have been using for nearly 30 years.
Have you seen how much money AIPAC has in US politicians' pockets? Nearly every other office in congress has an Israel flag on their door. Poured $36M (Million) into Haley Stevens. A complete nincompoop and incompetent person, but she would have further supported Israel's agenda.
The US is a destructive war machine beast that needs to be constantly fed. Unfortunately, we are going to see tons of US armed forces personnel and Iranians die in a needless, wasteful, illegal war.
> https://liccardo.house.gov/media/in-the-news/house-dem-sam-l...
At the same time, we've purged our military leadership of anyone who said "no" to Trump's plans of antagonizing Iran. A conflict many military thinkers consider un-winnable.
> https://www.duckworth.senate.gov/news/in-the-news/why-trumps...
Iran, having spent decades preparing for this type of situation, has the clear advantage and is pressing it hard. Shy of boots on the ground (itself an incredibly bloody and possibly futile avenue) there doesn't seem to be anyway to overcome their hold on the Strait.
> https://studies.aljazeera.net/en/analyses/war-no-one-can-win...
There is no secret strategy. The country is led by inept people who believe might makes right, and take every opportunity to enrich themselves. People are bending over backwards to make meaning of this blatant corruption and it is one way we're enabling the destruction of America.
It’s not a complex geopolitical game, it’s saving face.
It's true that Trump is deranged and this war is driven partly by ego and partly by the Christian dominionist Department of War's slavish obedience to Israel and fetish for holy war.
But let's be real - gross negligence and incompetence aside war with Iran was always going to happen, somehow, under some pretext.
2-3C means potentially >2-4 billion excess deaths over the next ~50 years from climate change. As long as global oil supply chains are low volatility and low risk, we continue on that path.
Ukraine has disabled 30-40% of Russia’s refinery capacity almost entirely with drones, for example.
TLDR it is not bad for the global oil supply chain to experience pain, it’s the primary factor in accelerating electrification and decarbonization.
https://actuaries.org.uk/media/ni4erlna/planetary-solvency.p... (page 32 risk impact matrix)
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Ukraines-...
And they prepared for it for a long time. And that preparation has paid off for them. We seem to not have prepared for it in the same way.
If Taiwan toasts TSMC when that happens, well, that’s part of what China is rapidly building out their domestic chip industry. China will then have a monopoly on that chip production besides what can be produced in the US and Europe, and have achieved reunification. And who is going to stop them? Nobody, based on the evidence and current trajectories.
Some places may scale up natural gas but unless a regional already has a lot of LNG infrastructure in place, a sudden drop in oil means bringing back coal.
And coal is of course far worse than oil.
Gradual sustained economic pressure will push a move to cleaner alternatives but a sudden shock leaves countries with exactly one option: bring back coal so the lights and heat/AC stay on.
China, Europe, and the US can build ~25-30M EVs per year with existing manufacturing capacity, as of this comment. That is 1/4th of global annual light vehicle sales. We can deploy ~1TW of solar PV globally annually. The world reached 3TW of total solar PV generating capacity this year. China's energy from coal has declined below 50% this year. Energy storage production continues to ramp right behind renewables. These are straightforward systems problems, there are no blockers or technical limitations.
TLDR Strongly agree existing coal generators might generate more and longer than they otherwise would, but clean tech trajectory will only get pulled more vertical from further oil energy supply shocks.
China’s LNG and coal demand slows as renewable energy surges - https://www.rinnovabili.net/policy-and-affairs/environmental... - August 3rd, 2026
Renewables To Squeeze Oil And Gas Imports In New Electric Age For Asia - https://www.forbes.com/sites/ianpalmer/2026/06/23/renewables... - June 23rd, 2026
From Australia to Vietnam, the Iran war is fuelling demand for EVs - https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/4/27/from-australia-t... - April 27th, 2026
EV demand is getting a boost from the Iran war — just as auto giants pivot back to combustion engines - https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/02/evs-autos-energy-oil-iran-wa... - April 2nd, 2026
How so? I can have a crew out installing panels tomorrow.
Citations:
Economics of coal versus renewables in Southeast Asia’s energy crisis - https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/energy/coal-vs-renewables-a... - April 8th, 2026
Key points:
* Since the war in Iran began in February 2026, a surge in oil and gas prices has triggered gas-to-coal switching in Southeast Asia, pushing Asia’s coal benchmark nearly 20% above the pre-war price levels and highlighting the links between the coal, gas and oil markets.
* Gas-to-coal switching also pushed coal prices up after the 2022 gas crisis, when Asia’s coal benchmark surged to a record USD 443 per tonne in September 2023.
* Renewables sit apart from the price volatility of coal, oil and gas, as they do not require ongoing fuel inputs. In 2024, solar was already cheaper than coal in 7 of the 10 member countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), according to LCOE data.
* The current gas crisis is already causing a decline in LNG demand across ASEAN countries. New ZCA analysis shows that were ASEAN to replace its planned 45 GW gas expansion with coal, costs would rise; in contrast, we found the Association could save USD 4 billion if gas expansion plans were instead replaced with solar and storage solutions by 2030.
* Even in countries with large coal reserves and coal subsidies, including China, renewables are already meeting a significant share of new electricity demand.
Coal Power Is Replaced by Renewables, Batteries, and Modern Electronics - https://www.renewable-ei.org/en/activities/column/REupdate/2... - September 18th, 2025