A heatpump salesman has a buddy that is a government official. Has outdated models he needs to liquidate. Salesman guy needs to be richer. Government official can't take the money directly, but sure would like to fly on salesman guys' private jet when they go golfing. Meanwhile government official guy goes and buys a bunch of Salesman company stock and profits explode.
Heatpumps should absolutely be the primary choice in the correct climates. But these deals are rarely good or efficient for a taxpayer.
Here in Texas, electricity is only about $0.11/KWH so heat pumps work out like this:
Heat Pump 5.0 COP : $6.50 per MMBtu Natural Gas : $12 - $15 per MMBtu Propane at $3.00 / gallon : $32 per MMBtu
The unfortunate characteristic of heat pumps is that they become less efficient the more you need them, i.e. cold weather, but if weather is generally above freezing, heat pumps are close to their spec range that is based on 47F outdoor temperature.
A buried heat exchanger or a water well makes it a weather-proof geothermal system- this seems like the ideal; if you also need air conditioning it will make your cooling more efficient too.
We have a two-story home half his size, but one minisplit upstairs and one downstairs would be $3-4000 installed, combined, and that's upper or top-end models.
The ones I got would easily handle a house of his size.
The new heat pump system cost roughly $14,500 and provides heating and cooling via ductwork that was already in place.
There’s no need to subsidize commodity items, there’s plenty of competition to keep prices reasonable barring any massive supply/demand shifts.