Strait of Hormuz Live Traffic Tracking(hormuz.now) |
Strait of Hormuz Live Traffic Tracking(hormuz.now) |
You might miss a submarine or two.
from 80-100 in February
to 1-8 past 200 days (tiny hump during fake MOU)
click on YTD
* https://en.macromicro.me/charts/94482/imf-strait-of-hormuz-n...
* https://i.imgur.com/fDonsfs.png
the real question is what is pressing down oil prices?
some scam we don't know about yet?
because strategic oil reserve is now below 300 million barrels which means it is experiencing permanent damage that cannot be repaired
Or are the attacks on ships more or less random?
Ships aren’t transiting without American approval and if I recall the US said ships paying Iran were not permitted to utilize the Strait.
But we also know the US has quietly been escorting some number of tankers out of the Strait over the last few months, unless they are Iranian, so there are likely ships that are transiting under American protection and they aren’t paying Iran.
If you observe the wording of everything they've said, they are being consistent: acknowledge our right to decide who passes and who doesn't (via a toll) or have your ship attacked. Those are words used to express consistency in policy, and to position themselves as reliable overlords of the region.
Gulf oil exporters will move away from utilizing the Strait over the next few years due to this continued threat - what will it be next time? Give us more chocolate or we’ll close the Strait again! ? You offended our Dear Leader, Straight closed for 4 days! Nobody is going to tolerate that.
So eventually we will wind up with a Strait in which primarily Iranian oil would pass, except by then the US will, if it decides to, maintain control over the Strait and no longer allow Iran to push oil through while Gulf powers just use alternative means.
It’s not necessarily the win that Iran or its supporters seem to think it is.
This is absolutely 100% not true. Iran had a fatwa against obtaining nuclear weapon weapons.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fatwa_against_nuclear_weapons
That is until the United States started bombing them
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION IN THIS MATTER
What a fallen nation
/I kid, I kid, it wouldn't work
Unfortunately, none of the other things that should have been jokes, weren't
Henry Hill: You're a pistol, you're really funny. You're really funny.
Tommy DeVito: What do you mean I'm funny?
Henry Hill: It's funny, you know. It's a good story, it's funny, you're a funny guy.
[laughs]
Tommy DeVito: What do you mean, you mean the way I talk? What?
Henry Hill: It's just, you know. You're just funny, it's... funny, you know the way you tell the story and everything.
Tommy DeVito: [it becomes quiet]
Funny how? What's funny about it?
In internet terms that's practically the Mesozoic
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_Rolling_Stones_con...
Iranian politician Ali Motahari said the fatwa only forbids the use of a nuclear weapon, not its creation.
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-705027
>Despite Iran's insistence that its nuclear activity is for peaceful purposes only, former Iranian MP Ali Motahari revealed on Sunday that Iran "from the very beginning" aimed to make a nuclear bomb, in an interview with the Iran Student Correspondents Association.
He hasn't done it yet, at least not publicly but he very well might. If you look at the moves he has been making, he is putting people in charge of IRGC who are bigger hardliners. The new commanders in charge are very pro war, for example Vahidi and Mohsen Rezaei.
I think United States and Israel made a big mistake in their calculus, underestimating the number of supporters they have in Iran. I assume mostly because you only hear the voices of expats who are either Pahlavis or classic Liberals in the West.
Easily 40% of population is in support of the Republic and for good reason. Decades of US trying to destroy Iran has solidified their position and the war of 2025 put the final nail in the coffin.
The people here discussing the "Strait" are missing the forest for the trees.. Iran will control it, there may or not be alternative solutions but the biggest issue is that the entire region will be forever destabilized. At least until one side gives major concessions, even if US wanted to have an agreement, Israel wouldn't allow it.
It's a bad situation for everyone.
I’m not sure what other products transit the Straight from memory but the only one that matters for America and the global economy too is oil and so as long as that’s flowing nobody really cares about Iran threatening ships in the Straight. Eventually the only ships they can threaten will be theirs, but they won’t be allowed to leave. Oh well.
And it’s not only oil, it’s also LNG and Qatar is one of the world’s largest LNG exporters, and virtually all of its LNG currently has to pass through Hormuz.
That would be long and expensive infrastructure constructions.
The straight wasn’t a problem before the President of Peace
> The straight wasn’t a problem before the President of Peace
I don’t think this is true. Iran has already mined the Straight before when something or another didn’t go their way, and they were already building up missile and drone capacity to make their shutdown even less manageable by regional powers and American forces.
Had they been granted say another 2-3 years of buildup we really couldn’t have done anything and would have probably had to accept Iranian control.
You also can’t divorce this specific issue from Iran’s general behavior: helping to kill Ukrainians, killing innocent people in the Middle East and creating wars in countries like Syria, and other things like murdering over 30,000 of their own people. They also still stone homosexuals to death. The Straight and their attempt to hold global oil production hostage is just another item on the long list of grievances.
How exactly will the US do that?
They’ve been trying for months, and can’t because Iran have the literal high ground. It’s accepted that Short of a massive land invasion committing millions of US troops, they can’t control the strait.
If this will continue for too long, other countries may decide that they want to pass through the strait no matter what USA says. Then what will USA do, declare war on everybody? Threaten to use nuclear weapons against those who want to use the strait?
For decades, USA has used various blackmailing methods to force other countries to follow its policies, but nowadays most countries seek methods to free themselves from these constraints, so it is unclear if USA will be again successful in the future with such tactics.
They certain don’t control the straight, because Iran can attack any ship passing through with ease and the US can’t stop them.
Notice how no US navy ships are going through? They know they’ll be sunk. That doesn’t sound like control to me.
