Stripe will reportedly acquire OpenRouter for $7B+(techcrunch.com) |
Stripe will reportedly acquire OpenRouter for $7B+(techcrunch.com) |
I haven't seen much evidence that model routing is being widely used yet. I think it's still more of an experimental mechanism right now.
My lord. Of all the terrible, uniformed takes the HN posters are spewing, this is the worst one I've seen in a while.
The anti-AI crowd really are clueless, eh?
Claude Code has no built-in way to use non-Anthropic models. It does support overriding the API URL with an environment variable, but there are drawbacks. OpenRouter is not used within Claude Code at all.
There are some gotchas with it too. e.g. The "system" role message isn't supported in the Anthropic API. It's not the biggest deal but it's a potential footgun.
On the other hand, the openrouter SDK + API takes care of this for you: Their one gateway has ways of enabling provider-specific features. You can switch the model name and pretty much be good to go.
Claude Code does not work with other models out of the box. You need a wrapper around Claude Code that translates other model requests + respondes to what the harness expects.
As an example, GLM document being committed to compatibility with OpenAI: https://docs.z.ai/guides/develop/openai/python
My uninformed guess would be that everyone except the frontier labs is probably motivated to do that too.
Similarly they document configuring Claude Code for their models, so I assume they implement Anthropic’s interface there too: https://docs.z.ai/devpack/tool/claude#manual-configuration
And, to answer your question, no. The existence of a common API makes it trivial to change zero code and send requests to a different model.
OpenRouter does more than just proxying; they also aggregate providers for open-weight models, which has a stabilizing effect on pricing and gives you protection against a single provider's downtime.
the value of openrouter is it offers centralized billing. you can route your calls to any provider you want, test a whole bunch of models against each other, and you just get one bill from openrouter. switching to a new model, or a new provider of the same model, doesn't mean setting up a new billing account with a new provider.
If you want to pay with Bitcoin Lightning, you can pay OpenRouter in sats via ROZO Checkout.
TrustedRouter.com
What’s up with finance companies getting into LLM routers?
Might be worth a look for anyone who needs this sort of thing.
Bookmarking this confidence because people speaking confidently bothers me; we'll see.
Hope someone clones it and they take a loss at it.
No support exists when things go wrong!
The enshitification will be inevitable. Soon this wonderful resource will no longer exist.
Here’s another link to an article about the acquisition; https://siliconangle.com/2026/08/16/stripe-reportedly-finali...
The enshitification will be inevitable.
Back to my own brain for my coding projects.
They’re the perfect company to own OpenRouter.
Tokens are simply a lightweight valuable asset. Stripe can serve as the middleman as well as anyone. They know how to route to many providers (payment rails) with huge differences in service characteristics. LLM providers are far easier.
Then they can work this into an offering where users can subscribe to tokens and use them across services. It solves one of the core monetization challenges of every AI company: how do you price when your costs are variable on usage, but nobody can make sense of charging by token?
From here, they can start hosting their own models and competing as an AWS for tokens. They can be the best provider of $OPEN_MODEL, or their own, and optimize for you.
Granted payments and associated ledges require a level of consistency that other systems do not require, but that is orthogonal to high volume.
Except OpenRouter sees all your prompts, sends your requests to different providers with pinky promises that they dont use your data, and is therefore a non starter for any company who cares about compliance.
If Stripe wants to spend 7 billion on a glorified reverse-proxy-api-gateway go ahead. I can here and now, guarantee to be able to reproduce all their functionality in 3 months, and for less than 10 million dollars. And Stripe internal engineering teams should be able to do better, as I will do it in the evenings only :-))
Ignoring that you can't reproduce the widespread adoption and mindshare OpenRouter has already built.
That's what Stripe is spending $7 billion on.
OpenRouter provides a Zero Data Retention option and is SOC 2 Type II compliant which means there's real penalties involved if they don't do what they say.
Stripe already has killer APIs and knows how to build API infrastructure at Extreme scale, it still has developer cred after all these years, they are already Kings of multiplexing to different sources -- so why not just build your own LLM gateway?
My only guesses are: they want to buy the traffic instead of trying to organically grow it (but I feel like Stripe would get the volume anyway because of name rec), they want to buy the revenue and think they can dramatically reduce COGs because of efficiencies, buying the relationships with the frontier labs (who all dogfood their LLMs in pseudo-private on OR), or... something else?
That's the part I'm confused about.
I’m sure payments are convoluted, but I’d still imagine they could be meaningfully easier for the bulk 80% of use case?
Docs are a mess, API is a mess, web portal is stuck in the 90's, things that are a form on Stripe are an email at best, a call/meeting at worse.
For one processor I had to have 4-5 calls before they would give me a key and let me buy hardware. I doggedly jumped over every barrier, worked with their shit docs, called their terrible API and in the end, <2 weeks before I was going live, found that in production over half my credit cards were failing to be charged. When I asked them about it they said "contact your bank", as if that was a valid response for why 4 of my 6 credit cards threw an error (with no recourse/message).
In <2 week I had Stripe hardware and completely re-wrote the implementation in time for launch.
Stripe is not the cheapest by far, but you'd have to pay me quite a bit of money to consider using anyone else.
For example, redirect-based payment methods (iDEAL, Bancontact, Sofort) are a huge source of complexity, and handling all the additional states a payment can be in is far from obvious. Stripe mostly just drops them in your lap and says "deal with it".
We have this workshop thing we make most new joiners go through where they integrate our own APIs into a demo app and the number 1 response from anyone familiar with the wider payments industry is that we should aim to make our docs more like Stripe's lol
I worked on this at Stripe in 2022. We were the first teams to start building v2 APIs and data models to solve exactly this problem. The first target launch date (in Feb 2022) was November 2022. It was launched in May of 2025.
My reporting line, as an EM, was Netflix, Oracle, Oracle. No one had startup experience. It was drenched in politics. The engineers were largely brilliant, kind, and hardworking.
I still love the company and believe in Patrick. Believe me, he deeply understands what you're saying and wants it to be the best it can be. But it was clear to me, even then, that they'd lost a lot of what made them special. They could maintain it, but I wasn't sure they could do it again. Banking-as-a-Service was one opportunity, Link was another, and now this will be a third. We'll see. (I say this with a lot of love for Stripe and Stripes.)
Coincidentally, I had a conversation with a recruiter at Anthropic and saw them doing something very similar. They were starting a new team in a new vertical and wanted someone with experience running an org of 100+ people. I would bet real money that it will be a fraction of the product/impact it could be (though still probably make money!)
(Not picking on you here, you just provided a well-written peg for a popular narrative. I'm aiming to sharpen my own thinking here & perhaps learn something.)
This seems like a stretch given the rise of local inference, especially the Prism Labs rumors from a few weeks ago.
One way I think about LLMs is they are akin to fancy databases in that they are software of which you can ask questions and get answers if you ask properly. Oracle & SQL Server are akin to OpenAI and Anthropic, and there are analogues for MySQL, PostgreSQL, SQLite, MongoDB, PlanetScale, etc. (This is an analogy, it's not going to be a perfect fit.)
In that view, would it make sense for someone to say that their credit card processor just bought the company that makes their ODBC driver? Would anybody suggest that the TPS of their RDS instance is a lightweight asset?
I don't see this as strategic beyond the obvious idea that Stripe wants to get closer to AI, and they haven't been able to get the market to care about their natural linkage to AI (Radar).
> they can start hosting their own models and competing as an AWS for tokens
The financial pressure of doing this has caused cuts to core product teams at the richest companies (which Stripe isn't!). I would not want my payments processor to go down this road and to get worse at processing payments.
Stripe is not a "credit card processor", and that's not the point of OP's comment. The point is that being the intermediary between merchants and processors is the valuable expertise in terms of an OpenRouter acquisition.
It's been a few years, but I used to work on almost exactly this (not at Stripe, but we processed hundreds of billions annually). If you're a big enough merchant (or Stripe itself), you can choose to send a credit card transaction to any one of potentially many processors, each of which have their own performance characteristics (one may approve at a higher rate, the other may charge better fees, etc). All of this subject to attributes of the transaction itself (ticket size, geography, card type, many others). You know quite a bit about the transaction itself before you send it out, so you can build up routing knowledge to optimize for whatever thing you care about (usually transaction success rates or fees).
See how this starts to look a lot like OpenRouter with money instead of tokens? I'm not sure I 100% believe that's how it'll shake out, but there is a transferable skillset.
Would is make sense to say that their online bookstore now sells Ethernet cables, bidets, and delivers groceries? Sells _cloud infrastructure_??
Amazon made two transitions:
1. Amazon the online bookseller => Amazon "The Everything Store"
2. Amazon the online retailer => Amazon the Cloud Services company
I believe what Stripe is doing here is closer to (1). "We are good at high-throughput APIs that wrap complexity with thin margins. We did it for credit cards, then ~all payment methods, now other digital bits."
In this context, tokens are much, much easier than international payments.
Now: Is it outlandish for their customers?
Not really. Every engineer knows stripe as an engineering company. I don't think Stripe is what it once was, but it's certainly a generational company. You're asking engineers—who broadly have a positive impression of Stripe—to use this product they already know. OpenRouter gets the positive brand association (trust) of Stripe; Stripe expands into a new domain whose technical needs are extremely similar.
Payments have nothing to do with LLMs. They are two different businesses. Doing well in one makes Stripe not particularly well suited to do well in the new, other one.
I see this more of an attempt at capturing hype/eyeballs/attention, given that Stripe has been private for a long time, and that the latest valuation is not particularly higher than the one from years ago. It is a company that I really like, but one should question their real business and how likely they are to go public. Owning Openrouter allows them to insert some "story" about the growth potential of the company.
At the end, the retail investor will pay for all the BS, particularly around AI this time - not sure if this acquistion is the case or not, but I suspect it's a possibility.
doing research for my end to end encrypted router TrustedRouter
Stripe wants to be in the business of collecting a % on the economy at large. This is why people buy Visa or Mastercard stock. It is not because of the tech but because it's effectively a tracker for economic activity (you could also argue rent-seeking over the economy but whatever).
Stripe can then sell potential investors on their stock being basically a tracker on the AI economy. Now you get access to private AI companies growth as well! IPO time!
LLMs are a different beast.
Do you have any numbers to back that up?
It’s like we spent all this time enabling ubiquitous TLS to keep enable end-to-end encryption of all communications, but all of a sudden we’re now totally okay with having a 3P observe and record all of them so we can save a few bucks.
Stripe operates in a highly regulated environment and have earned the trust of the banks, merchants and payment networks. But LLMs are operating in a completely unregulated environment and I’m not sure the trust Stripe has earned for the former is transitive to the latter.
If you think API companies have any value - Twilio (TWLO) is a case study against that.
Where can I read more on Collison's ambitions?
Stripe is a middleman. So is OpenRouter. So is OpenCode. Unless you own the data center and the hardware, how cheap can a middleman's tokens really be compared to the hyperscalers, without massive model compression?
Even DeepSeek itself is raising token prices. How much margin is there for a middleman like Stripe buying tokens in bulk from a data center and reselling them? Last i check Stripe do not run or own physical data center
I doubt Stripe can do much better here.
1.) LLMs are useful for programming
2.) Open models are excellent and will continue to improve
3.) Economies of scale and ease of access mean self hosting is out of the question for a large number of users
This means that even if the largest labs are not worth trillions and a large amount of the data center build out is not as valuable as the builders project and GPU/RAM prices plummet, it will not matter at all for this business. People will want to buy cheap open source tokens from a centralized trusted provider.
$7 billion for a business with little overhead that is already within their core competency and has strategic growth potential seems like a very good deal.
openrouter is involved with a lot of scammy crypto personalities. maybe they are the tulips people have been manic about for too long. maybe the collisons are the tulips.
OpenAI just announced earlier this week that Ayden would become their payment provider (when it was previously Stripe).
And OpenRouter has a large percentage of overall AI payment volume for all the major labs.
Both OpenAI and OpenRouter represent ~$100B in payment volume, whereas Stripe in total doing ~$2T. Two customer doing ~5% of your total volume who didn’t even exist a few years ago, must be kind of scary for Stripe.
https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/rise-ai-sho...
Going from a $1.3b valuation to a $7b exit in a couple months is an amazing return for those investors. I hope the OpenRouter employees got some decent equity out of this
It's so significant that even OpenAI is doing promos on OpenRouter. It's 50% cheaper to use Luna (provider: OpenAI) on OpenRouter, than via OpenAI's first party platform.
It's a pain to manage though, and that's what makes openrouter's service valuable to be fair
Openrouters suppliers (fireworks AI etc) are all in this same business
my site is the only end to end encrypted one TrustedRouter.com
I've always believed in staying model agnostic and being able to jump around providers as their intelligence, cost per intelligence and/or latency issues arise.
Openrouter will win as long as there is competition in the market
True. Lots of companies depend on this lever. The moment someone emerges as monopoly, which is very very unlikely to happen, that will create dent in such space like in which openrouter operates.
Is there an open source alternative for when the censoring begins?
Not sure I understand how this is strategically aligned for Stripe but certainly an interesting comparison.
The nature of the ecosystem also means that pricing is closely tied to "procurement" which could be routing, limits, whatever at a company level.
If stripe wants to be _the_ one that charges that fee, they either have to continuously try to ensure that all the different middlenen use stripe (most of them do!) but even better is to acquire the largest middleman.
You don't want someone else who happens to do all the routing+limits+policies, end up not using stripe. They already have this hold in existing stripe financial products where they apply all the policies, and everything goes through them.
It is also an easy deal from an investor point of view.
That’s chilling.
TaxJar, acquired by Stripe, they ended up doubling the price
Rebilly, same story
Lemon Squeezy, same story
Bridge, same story
Stripe can now provide tools to every product that sells metered AI usage and take a cut. This isn't about extracting a small percent on the tokens flowing from your coding agents to your model of choice. It's about all the products that are going to come to market and monetize metered usage.
Want to analyze your 2026 tax return? Use VisorAI's Tax Agent and pay only for what you use. Stripe provides all the accounting, payment processing, ships money to vendors, and takes a bit off the top. Trillions of dollars moving from the labor market to the token market? It's $10B per point in fees for every trillion.
Of course, of course, it turns out that name is already taken. Though not anything accounting related. A million monkeys all armed with a million typewriters is quite something.
What value are you providing that you'd take some further cut? You could take the money from the user via stripe and then pay your own openrouter bill instead.
It's more user and developer friendly when you tell your user:
- you don't have to create new account just log in to your openrouter account
- bring your own key
- you don't have to pay any subscription. we charge small markup fee (e.g. 5-10%) over your usage inside our app.
However I think they dearly overpaid for this as the core technology behind Stripe (fraud detection and integration with global banks) is hard to replicate. Even with the features mentioned above I think the technologies behind OpenRouter are vastly easier to replicate, perhaps even trivial now.
This is what i hate about modern entrepreneurship, everything is always built for a short term plan
Family businesses where tradition, trust, values and reputation are kept and transmitted across generations don't exist in tech and it's just sad
It's just build fast, milk users, cash out, and move on
No loyalty, no pride in the work, and zero respect for the people who actually supported you
And actually, it's a defensive move from Stripe, because OpenRouter was quietly becoming the way AI agents pay each other in USDC via x402, and Stripe probably saw this as a threat, specially with OpenAI already moving away from Stripe
They'll nerf you, to protect themselves, they'll make you dependent on their merchant system for the juicy fees
Amazing for enterprises, or companies who are letting users choose from a variety of models for ai tools.
I vividly remember back in 2023/2024, I was sitting on my sofa thinking, "there has to be a market to abstract data access layer, something like Terraform but for LLM provider to avoid vendor lockin". Only if I had access to capital to build something like that at that time, I could have been my try for an AI start up.
https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/breaking-p...
Congrats to the team anyway.
One of the only near monopolies that is seemingly allowed and it is even praised.
But who cares. Nothing to see here (as long as AGI is coming it doesn't matter anyway).
[0] https://www.wsj.com/business/deals/stripe-advent-in-talks-to...
Also if you think about it differently… OpenRouter is adjacent to what Stripe is but for getting access to AI models. If they dont mess this up they could invest in openerouter and grow that 100b pie.
Shopify uses Stripe no? Probably good volume discount though.
That is a much higher % than i expected.
Many people and businesses want to experiment with different models, but they don't want to sign up for a dozen different services. Businesses can make it difficult to approve new vendors. If your company is looking at 5 different vendors for tokens and teams can't agree to switch together, OpenRouter comes along with a unified interface and a single billing point.
They also become the point to add value-add services on top in a portable way. They already offer some things like automatic JSON repair, but I can see them adding functionality like leak detection tools, monitoring, alerts, and other patterns that a company can set up once and use with all of the models theirs teams need.
What I'm not so sure about is their moat. They have the brand recognition, but it seems rather easy for someone else to build what they've built. I'm a little confused about why Stripe didn't just build the same thing internally. Acquiring this company gives them an instant boost of 10 million customers for their AI business, which might be key to some financial goal they've got.
>Many people and businesses want to experiment with different models, but they don't want to sign up for a dozen different services. Businesses can make it difficult to approve new vendors. If your company is looking at 5 different vendors for tokens and teams can't agree to switch together, OpenRouter comes along with a unified interface and a single billing point.
Isn't that ripe for being picked off by aws or azure? Both already have marketplaces where vendors can offer whatever cloud services they want. Both already offer first party inference service, and have contracts with all the stodgy corps where it's "difficult to approve new vendors". Not to mention they have IAM and SSO built in. Good luck bolting that onto a third party vendor like openrouter.
What’s the angle for stripe , electrify over tokens exchange is the new money flow , and stripe wants to monetize it. 5% tax on any llm token is an amazing deal
A valuation just reflects what someone thinks about the future cash flows of the business.
But yeah, it does feel a bit crazy; unsurprisingly, AI hype affects valuations of AI companies too. On the other hand, I can see the idea that some people might be betting on the idea that the big US labs are bloated and spend too much money, and that the real money is going to be in serving open-weight models, and/or in automatically combining and routing to different models based on the task at hand.
the providers you route to will of course have their own policies, which openrouter surfaces to you through the webui and api. you can even configure automatic routing to select providers based on your policy preferences.
Pay me.
Also when people ask questions like this it usually means they're asking questions about a point in time, eg given today's numbers
But valuation should account for trajectory (where will they be in five years?)
In the hypothesized bull case for ai, they benefit dramatically from the secular tailwinds (ie unrelated to their own business strategy) of AI
So one way to consider this is it's a hedge by stripe in case AI becomes as big as some people think it is. And 7b to get in on the ai wave is a good deal in that case. And in all the other cases, it goes to zero and stripe is fine
As it turns out, it's very valuable to be the intermediary between a large number of people who want something and a commoditized market of providers. It's the middleman who captures most of the margin.
Now, AI models are not a commodity yet. But things seem like they might be heading that direction. And in a world where they are, Stripe probably wants to be that guy sitting in the middle.
Well that brings back some memories. I remember there was a third Oracle in that chain, but he left earlier compared to the others.
I shudder when I hear Braintree
Actually, OpenRouter own terms...explicitly say they do not warrant providers data handling, retention, training, or security practices...and their Enterprise terms say... model providers are not OpenRouter subcontractors and that customers must assess those providers themselves... ;-)
Anthropic/OpenAI -> Oracle
Gemini -> SQL Server
DeepSeek -> MongoDB
Qwen -> PostgreSQL
Llama -> MySQL
(These are approximate, just as food for thought about broad segments of the markets.)
The important axis in this analogy is that there are likely to be a small number of pure plays that operate as public companies providing LLM services (Anthropic, OpenAI). There will be some companies that sell access to proprietary LLMs as adjacencies to their core product offerings (Gemini). Many/most people will use open offerings without license fees (Llama, Qwen, etc.), paying only for inference (which may be local).
The caveat here is that more pure LLM companies are likely to get public, but I doubt that will be a lasting phenomenon. (Sybase, Informix, Ingres, etc. were also standalone companies at one point, but the market would not support that many commercial database providers.)
Appreciate your taking the time to respond.
I amend my prior comments (with actually being able to amend them) to Apple sucks as much as the rest of the rent seekers, and in reference to Aeolun's comment, it doubly sucks that enough people choose to lick it up that the rent seekers don't feel ashamed of their rent seekery, but in fact profit handsomely from it, thus encouraging others to follow suit.
It feels ridiculous that you can't buy directly from the software publisher - like the old internet when they were called programs. I feel I may be on the end of pointing and laughing at the old man, but the situation now is literally a gatekeeping middle-man that gets a 30% cut. WTF? Nice work if you can get it.
Makes me feel like a rube (in a significant majority, mind) for the few games I've bought off Steam. Eesh, even GOG is 30%. Epic's seems reasonable at 12% and only after the first million in revenue per year.
Software publishers need a 'donate' button on their websites where erstwhile pirates can cough launder cough their procurements.
I think the "money instead of tokens" is the important part. Money and tokens are fundamentally different was part of my argument (that I did not make well). It's not clear that it is a good thing for money movers to get into the token business (this apples to Ramp as well).
Banks are also intermediaries between parties (at scale, really between any parties). One could use similar logic to say that it therefore makes sense for Wells Fargo to start buying homebuilders because the home buyers will eventually be paying Wells anyway.
BankRate similarly processes volume of consumer mortgage quotes in real-time communication with lender APIs. They also do not have a reason to own a token router, even though their business involves similar processes to what you outline for Stripe.
Being an intermediary in a value chain does not mean you're critical path, or that it makes sense for you to be in the critical path.
Funnily enough, you argue that this is a natural fit for Stripe while a peer reply argues that it's a change in the business a la Amazon->AWS.
Anyway, I appreciate your thoughts.
Yeah, all those intermediary businesses must be eliminated first and foremost if you want a better internet space. The current state of affairs is the direct product of just too many intermediaries sucking money out of both ends that could be spent on quality of service, which leads to lower prices, which leads to a healthier market overall.
re: the Amazon transitions, the first shareholder letter lays out the plan to go beyond books. As I remember it, books were always only supposed to be the entry point.
AWS transition was more around building the platform Amazon.com needed to grow, and also to monetize the same platform.
Neither of these really fit with Stripe.
Stripe can obviously operate OpenRouter, they have the tech skills. The risk to the core business is that OpenRouter's growth path will distract from the core financial business and/or require a very different capital stack. (Someone already suggested Stripe scale out first-party model running, which can get very expensive.)
Appreciate your taking the time to respond.
What really happened is that Stripe's products used to be simple. If you're only accepting credit cards and only serving the US market, the API surface is extremely simple. Once you start going multinational and accepting different types of payments it gets much more complex.
For example, OXXO gives users a barcode and lets them take it to a physical location and complete the purchase, so instead of a system like Visa which can confirm a transaction in a maximum of O(seconds), you also have to support methods where confirmations take O(days). Building custom API endpoints for each payment method isn't realistic, since there are hundreds worldwide, and merchants want a single integration point that can support anything from credit cards to coupon-based systems like OXXO.
TL;DR -- Stripe's APIs are definitely more complex now, but it's not because of poor design, it's because they simply have to be in order to serve the customers and markets the company is now reaching.
"In 2011 the company received a $2 million investment, including contributions from Elon Musk, PayPal founder Peter Thiel" [1].
Also fun fact from the Founder's Wikipedia page
"In November 2024, Collison was criticized for visiting Israel and posting an image with the Israeli flag,[31] amid the Gaza war."[2]
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stripe,_Inc. [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patrick_Collison
"I am not touching your data, you are using OpenRouter and whatever provider, I am getting a small cut from your usage."
Not sure why this does not exist yet.
The moat protecting their high margins is temporary.
Competitors will obviously improve their developer experience over time, and then win on price.
Stripe are stuck. They know they need to lower rates over the long term, but since they already make so much profit overcharging existing customers, they are hesitant to do so, meaning new competitors will enter with a price advantage without a competitive response from Strioe.
So far it hasn't happened and they've had the time. Point me at an API better than Stripe's with lower fees and I'll be interested but so far I haven't seen anything like that.
If you don’t include that it just doesn’t count those tokens.
That ship sailed long ago when you sold your soul to Claude.
that's why my site TrustedRouter is hosted and end to end encrypted and you can actually see what it’s doing.
The other popular option is something like LiteLLM, which just has a major vulnerability that left a lot of big corps exposed. After spending a year trying to fight this battle, I’ve decided OpenRouter is worth their cut (and maybe more but don’t tell them).
Stripe completed the metronome acquisition their usage billing offering just 8months back , that hardly makes Stripe the largest player in this place when they are not even fully integrated .
It's take a lot to persuade me that there is another payment provider close to that volume.
Lago did around $10B in total API payment volume for comparison.
You are way off here
Look at how the same pools of capital sit on multiple sides of the market: the router, the payment layer, and the model providers... Its all the same club
Investor ---- Economic Overlap
---------------------------------------------------------
Andreessen - OpenRouter, Stripe, OpenAI, Mistral, xAI
Sequoia - OpenRouter, Stripe, OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI
CapitalG - OpenRouter, Stripe, Google/Alphabet
MenloVentures - OpenRouter, Anthropic
NVentures - OpenRouter, OpenAI, Anthropic, Mistral
AMP PBC - OpenRouter, Anthropic
How the hell can it be anywhere close to $7 billion?
When Facebook bought Instagram for $1 billion, it had 30 million users with hardly anyone else competing in the space.
Indeed.
> but you can still use pay as you go API billing
Indeed. Because OpenRouter is nothing but an API Gateway.
why on earth would you trust no data is sent to China? just because you clicked a toggle?
You decide the routing if you want.
I trust it because there are at least 7 billion on the line. If it came out that they were violating their contract and sending company secrets to China when they promised they won’t, they would lose literal billions for basically no gain, and possible criminal charges.
Why on earth would you think they are sending data to China after you click that toggle when they have every reason not to?
Broadly I agree with you. It seems like they have an in-demand product and there could be a sustainable business there at least in principle. But whether it's a $7B business or a $70M business I can't say.
This seems like the kind of thing that you can have Claude write in an afternoon for whatever service you're running. I don't see the value.
I don’t use OpenRouter, but exe.dev has a similar feature. I choose which LLM to use in a pulldown menu.
But the downside of this is that you’re paying API prices, which are much higher than subscription prices.
So, recently they added a way to connect a ChatGPT subscription and I mostly use that. But I can try out other models any time.
So this doesn’t seem like all that much of a moat to me, but it’s still a convenient service to have, since you aren’t going to set up billing with all the LLM providers in an afternoon. I expect there will be multiple competitive businesses.
Compare with what distributors do for physical goods.
people don't want to maintain infra (ie adding new models all the time)
people want their queries to work without thinking
if a provider goes down, openrouter queries dont (ideally)
it's really not that complex to understand
The back-up model is not a bad idea, but nonetheless...
> Sentry processes 594 trillion events a year across 200,000 organizations.[1]
That translates to an average of 18.8M events/sec , peak is likely 3-5x of that rather than evenly distributed 365dx24h.
Even in 2019/2020 they were doing 500B events a year[2]. There are few single applications anywhere close to that scale, (it is nature of the error monitoring stack), certainly not outside Hyperscalers -Google's Zanzibar [3] comes to mind as definitely larger and equally complicated to be precise as its surface involves security.
The parent poster misunderstood my statement, I only said Lago is likely more self-hosted than cloud(like Sentry), not that some single's tenant self-hosted instance is larger than Sentry cloud (!). In terms of reliability they need pretty high nines - nobody would accept their error logging infra to go down, not that different from as payment gateway. While payments is more complex for precision and all the banking integrations you need to manage and reconciliation, error monitoring tooling is orders of magnitude more scale buy its nature.
[1] https://blog.sentry.io/self-healing-software
[2] https://sentry.io/about/press-releases/sentry-application-mo...
[3] https://research.google/pubs/zanzibar-googles-consistent-glo...
Given how permissive the architecture of the internet is from TCP/IP on up, I think you could formulate a vigorous argument backing up this assertion.
I used to work in payments myself and I was shocked by how little the throughout is in terms of actual transactions per second. There simply aren’t that many payments happening globally at any moment, especially when compared to other industries.
A single games company can be doing far more API requests than the total volume of payments happening concurrently in the world, ditto for ads companies or observability companies.
At a payments company, 500 payments per second is considered high throughput and 1000 payments per second is a huge amount of volume. I’ve worked at games companies where 5000 transactions per second is low throughput.
The hard part in payments companies is consistency and reliability and “correctness”, the actual load and volume is embarrassingly small.
I realise I live in a strange world when my first thought reading this is "Worldwide? That’s low. Fits in the basic one region, one account concurrent AWS Lambda quota. No need to even ask support for the 10k."
-Global Payments: $2.8 trillion
-JPMorgan Chase: $2.45 to $2.6 trillion
-Fiserv: $2.2 trillion
-Stripe: ~$1.9 trillion
-PayPal/Braintree: ~$1.9 trillion
Stripes fees are uncompetitive, even their negotiated rates, so businesses tend to leave them as their volume grows.
That's rarely a hit to origin though? That's mostly cached at the browser, if not at the CDN.
That seems like something they would have prominently on their homepage.
Reddit/bluesky users seething at anthropic/openai doesn't matter, because they're not the one making the purchasing decisions for AI. Moreover all the complaints you mentioned applies to chinese AI labs as well, with the extra issue that they're beholden to the CCP. Taking the side of chinese ai labs because they're the competitors of american labs is "enemy of my enemy is my friend" logic, which is just dumb. It's like those people who think the US is bad, so then go and simp for china/russia.
If you value data security and ensuring you're not sending data off to servers, then Anthropic and OpenAI are off the table. The security they offer is just far too weak; you have to rely on blind trust. If you deploy a self-hosted Chinese model, then you know exactly where the data is going.
"but nobody is self-hosting Chinese models!" - yes they are, at scale, in datacenters within the US. Many companies already own and operate datacenters; it's a no-brainer.
Are you sure it has nothing to do with open vs. closed weights? I'd say that changes the perceived power dynamic quite significantly (although of course the labs can change this either way in no time if they so choose).
I don't use Reddit or bluesky bud, you're projecting.
> Moreover all the complaints you mentioned applies to chinese AI labs as well, with the extra issue that they're beholden to the CCP.
And the American labs are beholden to Trump, Hegseth and the department of war. Furthermore, our companies are consistently pursuing regulatory capture (see Dario's latest tweet) so they can establish themselves as a monopoly or duopoly.
They've scraped and stolen our data, and now they're trying to pull up the ladder behind them. I'm not naive enough to think that the CCP has my best interests at heart as an American, but I'm also not naive enough to think that Anthropic or OpenAI do either. As long as China keeps releasing open models, then the enemy of my enemy really is my friend.
> How many times do you buy things during a day? Once? twice? Maybe thrice?
None most days. But then some days eight or nine subscriptions go through. Guess it averages out.
Might be spiky though, around the beginning and ends of each month. If paying out wages monthly, and at the end of the month or beginning of the next one is prevalent across countries where a significant share of the population has both access to a bank account and sufficient enough income to regularly spend either by card or online.
Did this turn into a systems design interview?
Anyway, joking aside, I was mostly amused by what my frame of reference for throughput / service load has become.
And let me state again, if you're a payments processor and you're processing 500-1000 payments PER SECOND on average, that makes you a very big company indeed (multi billion dollar company).
You can do the math, work out how many payments that is, what an average value of payment is, and what the TPV would be for a month. You can easily run into huge numbers that way.
And don't forget, the payment processors are taking percentages in most cases, so that 120 payments per second can turn into a huge amount of revenue at the end of the month.