The Future Belongs to the Weird(essays.georgestrakhov.com) |
The Future Belongs to the Weird(essays.georgestrakhov.com) |
To me that sounds like a very post-romantic interpretation of the past, where everything that happened before now, the enlightened times, was savage,cruel and retrograde. It's my understanding that things were a lot more subtle than that and that's a very simplistic approximation. I don't think Da Vinci, Vauban Euclid or Grosseteste were burnt to the stake, not even Galileo was.
Surely, rich and noble eccentrics have existed in the past with several notable examples. But to point at exceptions and then suggests that this proves that no underlying trend is present seems like incorrect reasoning.
[1] https://www.clrn.org/what-is-counterculture-in-sociology/
> Obviously, there is nuance. You can take this argument to the limit and say that ultimately the world is made of only two things: Chaos (a.k.a. the vast seas of Wolfram's computational irreducibility, a.k.a. pure noise, a.k.a. quantum randomness) and Logos (the small islands of compressible patterns).
Within computational irreducibility, there's pure noise as well as universal computation, which is neither meaningfully predictable nor random. Since you mentioned Wolfram, in terms of elementary cellular automata, it's the difference between rule 30 and rule 110. The latter seems to me to be on the boundary between Chaos and Logos, and where I would expect to find the human intellect. (I think this is also largely the same distinction I made above where unpredictability can be useful or not.)
Since you also mentioned the economy and the possibility of UBI...I also don't know the answer, but I think it's worth thinking about Maslow's hierarchy of needs, which to me is pretty tightly coupled to weirdness. Moreover, I think societies similarly have their own hierarchy of needs, but that's something I don't understand very well. In any case, weirdness seems to be coupled to both of these, in that it best flourishes at the higher levels, when the more fundamental needs are mostly taken care of. At the lower levels, there's too much pressure to reduce social friction to cooperate with others for the sake of survival, and you just can't really afford to be too weird. I don't know if UBI is the answer, but there may be some benefit to just solving the lower levels of the needs hierarchy so we can move past this.
Guarantee it's almost (but not quite) universally no.
Money is one of those. The millennial compulsion to turn hobbies into income streams is particularly pernicious here and needs deliberate excision.
Another is the majority of today’s internet. I suspect it’s not worth the risk of trying to engage in networked-but-decentralized spaces because that’s such a short leap to Instagram. Just do it offline.
Maybe we will need humans to experience entirely new things instead. No one knows the taste of a new, bioengineered animal. No one knows what it's like to stimulate specific cell types in their brain. And so on. There are things that are and will remain uniquely human, forever.
This isn’t true and changing the temperature of your LLM doesn’t create weird in any way that’s marketable or interesting to people.
But what I will say anything that gives your reach the slightest advantage will just be replicated by a human when they notice it. Think of how niche ASMR content was and now every brand under the sun has done an ASMR unboxing
The problem with weird is that not everyone can be weird, almost by definition. Moreover, people get things done collectively, and for that to work, the group (at whatever size) has to push in the same direction. Pushing in the wrong direction just to be weird will cause the group to fail.
Instead, I think, the future belongs to those who help change the present.
At the limit, any existing process can be done by AI, given a goal. What AI cannot do (and must not do) is come up with new goals. Coming up with new goals must always remain a human prerogative.
We don't need humans to work the assembly line--we need humans to make the assembly line better. AI can't do that alone because it cannot define "better". Humans must decide what "better" means. Do we want the assembly line to be faster or use fewer resources? Should it continue to produce this product or work on a new one? Should we build a bigger assembly line or turn the whole thing into a park?
As long as the world keeps changing, we will need humans to direct that change. People who fear change, who want everything to stay the same will have the hardest time in the future. Those are the people who will be replaced by AI.
The future belongs to those who change the present.
Of course, often weird/different is how you get the breakthroughs and innovations. I'm not trying to stamp out weird. I just don't think everyone can be or should be weird (which is the implication of the OP).
But everyone can be a change agent and help to change the present into the future.
Uniformity seems to be a feature of scale. Institutions are just one form of scaled human intelligence/activity. Our desire for strong institutions, driven by a belief that strong institutions lead to better overall average outcomes for all humans, therefore creates pressure for uniformity that is shown in our education system. We stop seeing "human" and start seeing "citizen".
But that same need for uniformity to drive massive scale won't be lessened by AI. If I am right, then in order to scale our society AI will require uniformity just as much, if not more. If there is a direct relation between scale and uniformity and if we direct AI towards scale then AI will enforce an even greater uniformity on humanity.
Basically, if we want things cheap then we have to do them at scale. If we want things done at scale then we have to treat the components as uniform. Therefore, AI may lead to more uniformity as we direct it to make things cheaper and scale them out.
I would argue this is precisely backwards. The normal and predictable is more valuable. Human errors are largely predictable. AI errors are not. This is one of the reasons why human code is much easier to review than AI code.
And what about weirdos who are wrong and selfdelusional? Are they minority of majority of weidos? Then can you blame masses who avoid/exclude veridos?
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To have a society in which weirdos thrive means to put at risk so many things the ruling class thrive for: control, power, social status. Such society will need to cultivate curiosity and critical thinking. Good luck with arranging that at scale.
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It's indeed easier times for weird. But way far from thriving or even "having the future".
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There are way more things in the article to argue about. I just outlined couple.
Environmentalists may be weird, but they bring attention to real problems for society generally and have had significant success despite being targeted for murder by corporate criminals globally. Cannabis enthusiasts may be social jokes, but even during a drug war managed to carry on and find ways of not just existing but bonding and and sharing.
This kind of situation keeps coming up and it seems like the weirdness is a side issue relative to the commitment to some specific sharable experience.
That it might actually be remunerative (economically, socially)...
I think it depends.
For measurable goals and simulatable systems, AI and other methods like evolutionary optimization can create weird things on their own.
But what if the goals themselves are weird? This exists, There's a niche for that in the economy, but it's pretty small.
Why would it tend this way before AI? Something to do with the creative potential where tech reduces the consciousness and menial work requirement perhaps.
This is such a great way to summarise the issue facing rank-and-file employees. If your job is predictable, repeatable, systematizable then you're "competing against the price of electricity [and GPUs]"
We are supposed to resist the automation of normalcy with AI by...remodeling the process from some sort of set of civilizational first principles?
Lady Gaga, its already here.
Still only a limited number of slots for weird to be successful.
Like other comments said, the problem isn't whether AI will improve, it's whether the fuckers in politics and power will allow the Common Peasant to keep having full access to AI..
good luck with that.
AI sees we have too many 'cogs' available, and they are using up resources. Lets cull them back a bit.
There is no pre-Modern. Right after Late Middle Ages [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Late_Middle_Ages] goes Early Modern.
You must toggle to the minified telescopic version of the essay to experience this closing statement.
I suspect this is a very Eurocentric view. Take India for a counter-example, it has always been full of weirdoes starting their own cults.
The reality is that everything that was considered weird has been co-opted by the tech industry already. LGBTQ and Burning man are boring, commercialized and institutionalized now.
The tech industry did this, because tech people are relentless online advertisers for the industry and they had to placate them. It stopped when Trump was elected, which shows that the people holding the power are normie CEOs and not weirdos.
If you say Amodei is a weirdo: Only to a certain extent and he will be removed one day just like the Google founders. Some Eric Schmidt figure will take over.
Really, this is just AI generated or assisted fiction that improves morale for the tech influencers.
Change that and the weirdos will create a society that will die out.
See: modern liberal society and feminisim which leads to population collapse and destruction of the civilizations that embrace it.
I would absolutely love any kind of reputable source on this.
This usually happens prior to a collapse in the example societies...
At any rate, it appears the Witch Trials of 1400-1775 saw ~40k-60k people killed [1]. And in modern times, it is reported for example that ~20k people have been put to death in Tanzania for witchcraft [2].
While poking around Google and Wikipedia for this, it appears that in more stable societies the prevalence of these kinds of mass hysteria are low. However there appears to be sufficient evidence that during times of severe economic hardship, standard societal protections falter. In those circumstances, anyone deemed a burden or an omen of bad luck was at risk.
1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Witch_trials_in_the_early_mode... 2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern_witch_hunts#Tanzania
>However there appears to be sufficient evidence that during times of severe economic hardship, standard societal protections falter. In those circumstances, anyone deemed a burden or an omen of bad luck was at risk.
I don't think there is sufficient evidence of that. First of all, being deemed a burden is very different than being weird and shouldn't be bundled together. Second, there has been a lot of periods of severe economic hardship in the past that didn't result in the execution of weird people. It seems like a loose legal system was more to blame than economic crisis. From the article you linked :
The witch trials that occurred there were symptomatic of a weak legal system and "witches were most likely to be tried and convicted in regions where magistrates departed from established legal statutes"
In other words, if you let a bunch of villagers to handle everything themselves with no repercussions they'll start doing stuff like that, but I see no evidence than "weirdness" was a factor in the article, and in the west that was pretty much solved by the 18th century when countries starting having a strong central structure
Eventually people figured that out and started wearing hoodies instead of suits on purpose.
Just wait until you learn about a bar called Stonewall...
https://cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/9781501763182/western-...
and I love how it puts a historical context on the phenomenon because part of the current disease is a rejection of history.
A general problem I see in circles I have been in lately has been a general distrust of authority, like I am in a Tarot group and people (especially the hierophants!) there tend to have trouble with cards like The Emperor, The Hierophant, Kings and Queens, etc. [1] Of course it's complicated, like the best spokespeople for guru yoga are people like
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ch%C3%B6gyam_Trungpa#Controver...
[1] ... whereas I very much identify with the male-leaning figures in myself and see the female-leaning figures in the mature women around me such as my wife and other witches
"Feminism" is not one thing, I mean, women are 50% of the population and they have very different beliefs, experiences, interests, etc. Often "feminism" is an expression of "individualism" and many of the major social changes have been driven by capital and the empire: I mean, a woman who stays home is not paying taxes on the fruits of her labor, she is not driving up stock market prices and making billionaires richer. I think there's not a lot of understanding that other career paths are possible. One of my friends had a child at age 19, spent some time living in a tent, worked in food service, but then got a masters in teaching and now works as an educator and union steward. And her daughter was off on her own at an age where some other women are stuggling with IVF and miscarriages. I know another teen mom who got an accounting degree, went down to New Jersey and became an experienced corporate accountant, and now she does the books for a well-regarded regional bank.
I believe in 50 years there is going to be more talk about duty and responsibility (which can be feminine, masculine or neither) and less about individual rights. Either our culture changes or there will be a rupture in which people will turn their backs on everything our culture stood for.
That's... That's not how discourse works.