Statement: Alan is not blue.
A log-probability of −0.00182 is a probability of 99.82%. We asked for five alternatives and got none: Luna put essentially nothing on "true" or "false". And it's wrong. Alan is kind with rough skin, so he's red; red means green; young, round and green means blue. "Alan is not blue" is false, three steps in.
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Can someone explain this I got unknown as well. The problem statement includes the word “usually” a few times.
Is there some sort of specific meaning or rule in this domain that makes this problem mean something different to how it would be read at face value?
Without knowing anything extra, to me this reads:
1. Alan is young, round and kind
2. Alan is sometimes rough
3. Kind with rough skin are usually red
(Alan has not been stated to be in this category - unless "sometimes rough" implies "rough skin")
4. If red, then green
(As above, no information yet on whether Alan is red, so this gives no additional information about Alan)
5. Young, round and green are usually blue
(No information yet on whether Alan is green, so this gives no additional information about Alan)
6. Statement: Alan is not blue = ??
(No additional information since statements 1 & 2: Alan is young, round and kind, Alan is sometimes rough)
BTW - I have just numbered the statements in the order I used them, in case anyone wants to correct or discuss anything. This isn't the order they were given.