George W. Bush is Smart(keithhennessey.com) |
George W. Bush is Smart(keithhennessey.com) |
I'd hate to see what a mess a real genius would have made with all that.
All this story shows me is a man preternaturally gifted in terms of understanding the people around him, and bullshitting.
If you watch his older speeches and ad-hoc interactions, he was extremely sharp. And if you watch him later he seemed easily confused and steeped in dogma.
I almost feel like he was poisoned, or beaten down, by the pressure of the presidency and the various narratives from Rove, Cheney, etc.
Either way, there's likely truth to both accounts--that he is both much brighter than people think he is, and that he often acted like a complete idiot.
The main thing that struck me about the analysis was that it showed some of his earlier speeches, which I had never seen before, and he did indeed come across like a completely different person.
Test scores and grades aren't everything, but it's hard to believe he's smarter than the current crop of Stanford MBAs. Top schools today are more competitive than they have ever been. He wouldn't have been considered for the schools he attended with those marks today.
But the speeches and stumbles are only part of the reason for his poor public image. More significant is that his policies and decisions were catastrophically disastrous. We're still recovering from the mess that he made.
Then there's Steve Yegge's ( https://plus.google.com/110981030061712822816/posts/AaygmbzV... ) comments about Jeff Bezos and Joel Spolsky's ( http://www.joelonsoftware.com/items/2006/06/16.html ) about meetings at Microsoft when Bill Gates was heavily involved.
I also have a friend who worked briefly as a speechwriter for the president of a Central Asian country, and he has said that before he went to work for the Palace, he thought that all of the people there were just lazy, unintelligent, corrupt, and didn't do anything. When he got there, he realized that they were some of the hardest working, smartest, and least corrupt people there.
I think that my point (and the point the author is trying to make) is that people in positions of high power are usually smarter and usually understand more than we who are outside that position and outside those corridors think that they do. I think anecdotes like the ones linked above go to prove that.
I don't think George Bush was stupid. I think he was incompetent and arrogant. The two biggest public examples are "Mission Accomplished" and "You're doing a good job Brownie." I think he built a bad team and promoted loyalty over competence. Like Condi Rice... Steve Jobs would have fired the national security advisor after 9/11. George Bush promoted her to Secretary of State. Terrible leader. I felt a sigh of relief when he left office.
The press and his opponents highlighted President Bush’s occasional stumbles when giving a speech. President Obama’s similar verbal miscues are ignored.
Oh nonsense, I could reel off a list of Obama gaffes from the present to back before he became President, largely because people who oppose the President repeat them endlessly. Those same people seem to think Obama's the first President ever to use a teleprompter, or at least are pretend they do.
Now, I never thought Bush was unintelligent; he ran his father's election campaigns, and you don't get to be governor of a large state, or President, without any smarts. I do think that Bush and many of his administration suffered from some alarming cognitive biases, and the smarter a person is the easier it is for them to fall into the trap of believing in their own inevitable correctness (I've done so myself many a time). I can't help feeling that he's treating the financial crisis and some structural deficit issues as unforeseeable events that just happened to fall out of the sky during the tenure of the Bush administration.
I suppose what I'm saying is that I consider Bush's tactical intelligence to be a lot higher than his strategic intelligence; he's a very skilled politician but a pretty poor show as a statesman. History may prove me wrong but I'd be willing to put a bet that it won't.
That said, I wonder why, if Bush was as intelligent as this guy claims, he made so many catastrophically bad decisions. Does high intelligence not correlate with the ability to make intelligent decisions? I'm sure Kahneman would have an interesting analysis.
There's probably not much meaningful discussion that will happen from this article. Maybe something that could happen is "Why do politicians have to act dumb?" - there are examples of well educated 'posh' English MPs faking a less posh accent; there are examples of US polls asking who you'd like to have a beer with.
Democracy really sucks in England, and from what I can tell it sucks even more in the US.
Obviously it's better than any alternative, but the versions we have are broken in ways that are hard to fix and which give us really bad, weird, outcomes.