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Entrepreneurs Don't Have an Optimism Bias | Dark Hacker News
Entrepreneurs Don't Have an Optimism Bias
(blogs.hbr.org)
9 points
by
smit
12 years ago
| 3 comments
codex
12 years ago
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The high failure rates of startups suggest otherwise.
cookingrobot
12 years ago
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Not so. The payoff of a successful startup is so high that it's often a good bet even with a high chance of failure.
codex
12 years ago
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Expected value only enters the picture if you can play many, many times. It's more realistic to look at the median outcome, yet every entrepreneur is transfixed by the big exits. If that's not optimism I don't know what is.