The Future of Europe: An Interview with George Soros(nybooks.com) |
The Future of Europe: An Interview with George Soros(nybooks.com) |
All proportions aside, it is a bit like those who criticize Wikipedia, which is one of the greatest production of human minds, just because some of their edits have been reverted.
European Constitution (2005) France - 54.9% against (29 May 2005) Netherlands - 61.5% against (1 June 2005). No one else in Europe was offered a choice.
Lisbon Treaty (2008): Only Ireland asked people to ratify it. No one else was offered a choice. Initially Ireland voted - 53.2% against but then when told to vote again and get it right - 60.3% in favour.
Several member states used or intended to use referendums to ratify the Treaty establishing a Constitution for Europe (TCE).
The results were as follows:
Spain - 76.7% in favour (20 February 2005)
France - 54.9% against (29 May 2005)
Netherlands - 61.5% against (1 June 2005)
Luxembourg - 56.5% in favour (10 July 2005)
Czech European Constitution referendum
Danish European Constitution referendum
Irish European Constitution referendum
Polish European Constitution referendum
Portuguese European Constitution referendum
United Kingdom European Constitution referendum
> European Constitution (2005) France - 54.9% against (29 May 2005)
> Netherlands - 61.5% against (1 June 2005). No one else in Europe was
> offered a choice.
And arguably, you can say democracy is working, since the European Constitution was not enacted.
> Lisbon Treaty (2008): Only Ireland asked people to ratify it. No one
> else was offered a choice. Initially Ireland voted - 53.2% against but
> then when told to vote again and get it right - 60.3% in favour.
Meanwhile the USA has neighboring countries like Mexico or Cuba with huge problems like drug wars or lack of democratic elections (Cuba only) and which are poorer GDP/capita wise than countries like Poland, which were practically communist colonies of Russia until 1990! Sorry but it seems to me that the European Union is much more beneficial to the European continent than the USA for the American continent.
If you share the same currency and banking system you end up being responsible for each others debts whether you liked it or agreed to it in the first place, the "NO BAILOUT" clause was effectively worthless and irrelevant.
I get that you're pointing out that culturally Finland has less in common with Greece than Oregon has with Louisiana, but that was not always the case. The US just has had the benefit of a couple of hundred years of deep integration since the Louisiana purchase. Cuba is not part of any political association with the US, so naturally it can't be compared.
Also... The US did bail out the Mexican government and save it from default in the 1990s, quite quickly and decisively. The fact that most people don't even remember that, and yet so much ink has been spilled and so many teeth gnashed over whether, or how, or whether to break up the union instead says a lot about the fragility of the EU (to be expected of course, it's still such a young institution). The integration and benefit to the states in the US has been enormously successful. Many would like to see the EU get there but it is still more correctly analogous to NAFTA which even though it was only a few years old and much less ambitious, played a big part in justifying the Mexican bailouts.
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1994_economic_crisis_in_Mexic...
The whole thing was just about the debtor bloc trying to save their own ass while imposing harsh austerity on Greece.
I think Soros would rather be speculating on fiat currencies, rather than less flexible ones. So you are probably right that he has an agenda. It doesn't mean he's wrong, though. There would be other predators who would rather try short bonds written by gold (or Euro) standard countries ... just because they'd rather have the Euro doesn't mean they are wrong simply because they would be pushing an agenda.
The gold standard debate is just so annoying though. There's rarely any data, just lots of arguments, and bickering at cross purposes. (X is good because it's more stable ... no wait it's good because it's less stable ... no it's good / bad because it punishes evil investors / lazy non-investors ... wait, what do you mean the banks effectively print money, shouldn't it be illegal to lend out money they don't have in a safe?).
The EU currently covers more than 12 separate currency zones, to which there are a further 21 European currencies. So, a total of approx 34 currencies (depending on how some are counted).
The undeniable success of the EU is based on its ability to have never-ending negotiations between it's constituent parts. With regards to countries such as Greece, I feel that the long-term outcome of the recent financial crises will be sounder fiscal policies within those countries, since they have found to their undoubted regret that poor fiscal policies leads to a lot of pain, even if you have a "rich uncle" such as Germany. It will also hopefully deter the economically weaker countries from joining the Euro before they are ready.
Talk about blaming the victim ...
The shitty fiscal policies in Greece or similar problem in Spain, Italy has caused major distress in the population, especially the youth who have had no time to know about and much less profit for their various countries peculiarities. The handling of the crisis has been financial with no concern for the population.
To go back to your family analogy. It is like you convincing your neighbor to rob a bank. When all goes south, your rich uncle bail you out and refund the bank, letting you keep what you stole. Your neighbor is not so lucky, he is jailed, and so are his wife and kids just make the lesson more painful.
I'm a true European, married to an European of another country, living in a third one with friends all around. Teaching fiscal policies to corrupt politicians by destroying the future of people they only indirectly care about is not my idea of an "Union of the People".
Before the Union there was War. There has been war almost continuously in Europe since we have written records.
The EU is far from perfect, but is a product of WW2, when people was aware that another war in the nuclear age probably would have meant the annihilation of entire populations.
Relinquishing part of one's country independence and autonomy was considered a fair trade for peace and security.
My grandfather was made prisoner by the English in WW2, and not 60 years later I was able to take a plane and start living and working in England with just my ID card.
This freedom (and security) for me is worth every wrinkle and obstacle the EU can and will have.
It's not about kumbaya and peace in Europe. The Euro does absolutely nothing to maintain that, and conflating Europe as a political entity and the common currency is a deception.
I hope Merkel will change course before Germany is surrounded by failed states headed by populist right-wing nationalists running on anti-German platforms.
you must have missed the news. because that is exactly the rhetoric the eu politicians keep using. [1] "if the euro fails there will be war". for the nitpickers amongst you with the choice of the mirror was the quickest google link. sarkozy has used the same rhetoric. i've watched merkel say that in the bundestag. if you know german watch that instead.
edit 2: can't find the whole speech, but here's parts of it [2]
a lot of greeks have seen the europe as the fourth german reich. so far any attempt at self determination of the population has had threats of economic sanctions in return. you may call that whatever you like, but if you risk starving your population, that's economic warfare.
> criticised from inside and outside by the likes of Soros, who will never understand that finance is a tool and not an end. I hope Merkel and other Eurocrats will firmly continue to not listen to his "well-intentioned free advices".
don't worry. merkel and the other eurocrats have proven to be immune to any kind of criticism or facts. merkels favorite answer to any of that sort is:
"the euro is alternative less".
to me the whole euro is a smart backdoor from the us. everything that the european population has protested against in the past is now getting written into law through laws that you can't even read (yeah, there's actually some opinions that they share). well you can, but usually either after the fact or because someone leaked the draft to the public.
my prediction is that for another 10-20 maybe even more years, people will become more and more miserable, giving even more rise to the extreme right, and at some point the whole thing will just blow up. but boy i can tell you i don't want to be here when it does.
conflict is the natural law of things. if you keep suppressing it for too long, the backlash will get even bigger. yes, i do mean that. suppressing conflicts until they're too big is imho what caused the first world war, and countless other unfinished/ongoing civil wars that became way more bloody than they should have been.
it's also what causes this ongoing discomfort in bigger organization structures where people know exactly that there's something wrong, but the company structure does not allow for open conflict. it's also precisely what made so many open source projects, and their forks successful.
that said the euro is still way more stable than that fiat usd. and soros probably went on shorting right after his interview, why people up vote that douche talking is beyond me.
[1] http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/europe-could-be-plunged...
[2] http://www.welt.de/finanzen/article10943242/Fuer-Merkel-best...
From the article:
> Ms Merkel had even warned European countries could end up warring with each other if the euro collapses.
What Merkel actually said:
> She told the German parliament: “No one should think that a further half century of peace and prosperity is assured. If the euro fails, Europe will fail.”
Taking your news from the Mirror is a surefire hit to general cynicism and anti European rhetoric.
> a lot of greeks have seen the europe as the fourth german reich.
This is just inflammatory hyperbole, firstly because it is not backed up with any data, but also, which may be as anecdotal as what you say, a lot of Greeks are actually happy with the outside pressure to force changes to their public sector and governmental system.
Yes, but we civilized humans, with the helps of centuries, went against nature, and decided we are no beasts. We instituted Justice, the Law, moral frameworks, and many other things that are human-made patches to Nature.
Do you think it is in vain?
If you had a disabled kid at arm's length today, would you propose we avoid supressing the law of nature for too long, and let natural selection do its work? (Which results in the quick death or starvation of the disabled and the weaks, FYI).
Also, this was such a great point by Soros from the interview: "According to Max Planck, among others, subatomic phenomena have a dual character: they can manifest themselves as particles or waves. Something similar applies to human beings: they are part freestanding individuals or particles and partly components of larger entities that behave like waves. The impact they make on reality depends on which alternative dominates their behavior. There are potential tipping points from one alternative to the other but it is uncertain when they will occur and the uncertainty can be resolved only in retrospect."
http://books.google.com/books?id=xsSv3kSDEd8C&lpg=PA8&ots=9L...
[0] I refer to Soros, not to k0mplex
Staying with physics analogies, this book is like a photon. It is illuminating. Proper absorption leads to a higher state and the world will look a bit darker afterwards.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ad_hominem
It doesn't help that the OP's insult premise, despite its frothing anger, is your garden-variety, vaguely conspiratorial hate of evil rich people. This sort of stuff should come with a big [CITATION NEEDED] for those of us who don't believe the rich are a big conspiracy of fortunate sons, out to get the common people.
But what's most ironic is that Soros being one of the world's top finance guys gives him more credibility, not less; unless you believe he has a nefarious plot to make billions by lying in magazine interviews or something.
Said that, I agree that there is little value in the article.
The window of opportunity to bring about radical change in the rules governing the euro has closed. ... I am giving up on changing the financial arrangements, the creditor–debtor relationship that has now turned into a permanent system. I will continue to focus on politics, because that is where I expect dramatic developments.
He then goes on to express nothing but positive sentiment regarding the potential for beneficial political developments stemming from the EU.
I think that the inherit youth of the readership here (mind you, I count myself as part of it) may blind us somewhat to the fragility of the relative peaceful period we're experiencing around the world.
To let people vote so long till they vote what you want to be the result is a classical method from the toolkits of authoritarian regimes. It is the embodiment of democracy as a façade. It is the same as rigging the vote.
And things even changed between referendum[2], so yeah, a second vote was warranted IMO.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-eighth_Amendment_of_the...
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-eighth_Amendment_of_the...
Having regular elections on important issues is not a sign of totalitarianism in itself. Some political offices only have a two-year term, and that's not because the government wants people to keep voting until the right person gets elected...
AFAIK, the Irish government didn't jail, beat up, bribe or otherwise coerce anyone to vote for the Lisbon treaty.
And those were? Greece is the hardest working country in Europe, and Italy was running surpluses before the financial crash.
That's another thing I didn't like in the handling of the crisis. Making everybody in a country look like criminals to justify their harsh treatment of the country as a whole. So Greeks were lazy taxes dodgers, Spaniards had plenty of hidden money, all Cypriot money was from the Russian crime lords, ...
If the mantra "Same currency - responsible for all debts" was true, it would be impossible to explain why the yields of German/Austrian/Finnish bonds are trading at a vastly different level than the Italien/Spanish/Portuguese etc... bonds!
So the US can do the same, with the same result. Declare all US debt/treasuries to only have 50% of the nominal value. Immediate result : large drop, followed by recovery. Longer-term result : nothing.
So the Cyprus and Greece crises made this a valid policy option. It doesn't look like it will be necessary any time soon, but it has gone from inconceivable to "will happen at some point in the future".
The market doesn't actually want you to pay back your debt. They care, but not enough for real consequences for the debtor. Why ? Simple : there's no other place to put money if you have very low interest rates everywhere.
Only if one doesn't understand the difference between a debtor and a lender. The common currency helps the core, and hurts the periphery. Where's the contradiction?