I remember something along these lines came up quite a while back on HN, and later some Facebook data scientists satirized the Princeton researcher's methodology where they showed how Princeton would have only 4 students in 2017.

On a more practical note, I despise Facebook, but I don't think it is going to fade into oblivion. It may become less relevant, but it will never fully disappear, especially as it snaps up these new social networking channels like WhatsApp and Oculus.

"Between 2015 and 2017 it will lose 80%". It seems like everyone is basically saying the same thing about Facebook: Eventually facebook won't' be as popular, similar to all social networking sites before it.

I think Facebook, if anyone, knows best how to defer these types of scares. They have some of to brightest minds constantly worrying about these problems. Remember when Google+ came out and people thought Facebook was doomed? Well they survived - and that was a Google effort mind you. At the end of the day Facebook delivers a good product, not to mention established themselves as a legacy platform. I think Zuckerberg stated once that he wanted to be the "dial tone" of the internet. I think they have accomplished this. And as technology continues to develop, Facebook will try its best to stay up to date.

There is one problem with this logic. Some called religions "viral" and despite the analogy religions form the core identity for the majority of the world's population. And in the end this all the marketers care about. But Facebook is yet to deliver on the marketing promise and it is this aspect of the experiment that will make or brake the site.