Better drugs than they are currently on. Nobody wants to admit it, but that is the real reason for the change in inflection of the line. See cycling.

Here's the hypothetical scenario that the report describes in the end.

I've found reading the analysis after this story makes it an even better read:

The road is so flat and straight, you can see them coming from a mile away. Six runners flow in arrowhead formation around the Canadian city of Saskatoon. The early November air is still and dry, the sky overcast, and the temperature hovers a bit above freezing, just as predicted.

All in their early 20s, they’ve been training together for this moment for years; only in the last month did their coach select which three will go for the record. The remaining three form the front of the arrowhead, blocking the wind and enduring the mental effort of controlling the pace. Should one of them cross the finish line in two hours—or faster—all six will share equally in the $50 million jackpot promised by the heirs to the Hoka One One fortune. The pot of money is up for grabs, for any runner, anywhere in the world. The chase is on.

So, will they make it? And what year is this? We’ve cut the distance to the sub-two marathon in half since 1998, but it will get progressively harder to trim the remaining seconds. Still, the physiologists tell us that it’s not impossible, meaning it is possible. I’m saying the year is...2075—and they make it

This is an interesting analysis of available data for runners and record-breakers, outlining what will have to happen to break the two-hour mark for marathon times. Dennis Kimetto set the marathon record this year at 2:02:57.

Cue complaints about scrolling behavior of this site, but the content itself is worth reading.

Unfortunately this article misses the third of the three components to improve endurance performance, which is lactate production rate (indicator for fat burning: the lower the more energy is produced by burning fat).

Two athletes with the same VO2max and efficiency can have vastly different performances in a marathon. The body's VO2max potential can be used by solely burning carbs, which supply is limited (about 2000 kcal) whereas fat supply is practically unlimited (1 kg has about 7000 kcal. As a marathon requires more energy than is available as stored carbs, the ability to burn fat is a major factor in marathon performance.

Does anyone have a mirror of this article on a readable page? Or a site I can run it through so it is viewable for humans?

I especially like this paragraph from the story: "Kenyans and Ethiopians have dominated the marathon since 1999; in fact, of the 100 fastest marathoners in history, 59 are from Kenya and 31 are from neighboring Ethiopia. Is it genes or environment—nature or nurture—that is responsible for this overwhelming domination? The answer doesn’t actually matter when it comes to who will run the first sub-two marathon. The success of East African runners reveals key traits that the eventual record-setter will possess, wherever he happens to be born." Yes, no matter where the runner who first runs a sub-two-hour marathon is born, from whatever group of ancestors, and where the runner trains, the runner will have to have certain characteristics to run that fast for that long. The article then proceeds to detail those characteristics.

I used to turn off a lot of Javascript on webpages, but I'm actually managing to read this article reasonably well despite the appalling usability it has with Javascript turned on. The article is definitely worth a read, despite the annoying default screen presentation.

Surprised no-one linked to sportsscientists.com: http://sportsscientists.com/2010/08/the-sub-2-hour-marathon-...

A line of thought that's particularly interesting there is that a 2h marathon has implications for 10000m and half marathon speeds, which make it seem quite a bit further off.

I'm consistently surprised by what the human body is able to achieve. If you've never heard of ultra marathon runners, you should check out this episode of radiolab. This lady runs for days on end in ultramarathons. http://www.radiolab.org/story/122291-in-running/

It's intriguing that she suffered brain trauma and there's a part of her brain that doesn't function as expected. I expect there will be a marathon runner with a very specific brain trauma. The trauma will give him an unfair advantage to run a sub two hour marathon.

I know we like nice round numbers like "2 hours" but anything remotely close to 2 hours is an insane, all-out pace as any runner knows.

I doubt most cities have people who could run a half marathon at that pace. The best half-marathons are still around 59 minutes, now you want to double that with no performance penalty.

It is going to take an incredibly genetically gifted person with a lifetime of training to do it. Basically the Usain Bolt of marathons.

What I like is that in the half-marathon, women are only 5 minutes behind men. I am more interested when the first woman will run a one hour half-marathon.

Looking at a different pivot to the question, Allen Downey gives a good theoretical reason for the decline in times and projects 2041 as the year for the 2-hr marathon. Also, his original projection was made in 2011, so there are three years of data to compare against, which is interesting. http://allendowney.blogspot.com/2014/09/two-hour-marathon-in...

with regard to Berlin, weather, etc... - my meager experience of recreational runner matches it exactly - the best environment to run has been near Baltic Sea during Fall, soft, cool, almost mist air which cools you off and is absorbed by lungs without strain. The article doesn't mention humidity - it shouldn't be too heavy, yet dry air wouldn't work that well with lungs.

What will it take for old people to stop writing in weird degree units so the rest of us don't have to convert it?

Marathon and other endurance sports are interesting.

It takes a toll on the body. It catabolizes it. Compare a marathon runner with a 100m runner.

Also, as expected, temperature plays a big factor in it, which makes me wonder why so many people "love when it's a nice day" (read: sunny and hot) to exercise.

  ... data graphics were mainly devices for showing the obvious to the ignorant, 
  which led to two fruitless paths.  
  The graphics had to be alive, communicatively dynamic, overdecorated and 
  exaggerated (otherwise, the dullards would fall asleep)  
  The main task of graphical analysis was to detect and denounce deception 
  (because the dullards could not protect themselves)  

Well, they hit the first one.

I really like the Javascript Graphics used in this page to show statistics, anyone knows the library name if any?

> VO2 max (a measure of aerobic fitness)

Note that even though we used to be told that we could all increase our VO2 max through trainning, it turns out that only people with a specific set of genes can do so.

This article was painful to read. I had to scroll then wait as the page slowly faded in. I gave up after a couple of pages. Too painful

Is there software that makes it easy to put together a presentation / design like this? (e.g. wysiwyg / point-and-click)

Great article; it got me wondering how much the oxygen weighs that an elite runner would use in the course of a marathon...

The new journalism is scroll effects and animated charts.

The track should be downhill?

2 hours of running.

This is an impressive amount of effort put into making the content unreadable. I sort of get what they're going for with the fade-in of content as you scroll down (although it's distracting as hell for actually reading rather than just looking at it), but what would possess someone to think that fading out text as I scroll down was a good idea? Crazily enough I like to be able to read more than two sentences without scrolling. I don't expect a site to use my monitor's full width, but I sure do expect it to use the full height.

So much thought was put into the design and yet nobody bothered to add an option on whether you want to see units in standard or american measures.

It's 2014, can't you people just detect I'm not american and put up normal Centigrade, km, kg, etc?

Why is it that drafting is allowed in world records? Why not just break the record by having a big draft train like in cycling? Cycling records don't count if drafting is involved, in fact.

The whole article is beyond stupid. It's impossible to seriously discuss athletic records in 2014 and not mention drugs. No discussion of steroids, blood doping, hgh, nothing. For context, the major marathons just increased their drug penalties [1]. The second they get serious about testing they'll discover they have the exact same problem as bicycle racing.

[1] http://www.bmw-berlin-marathon.com/en/news-and-media/news/20...

curun1r: steroids are useful for the exact same reason in the tour de france: decreased training recovery times, joint protection, etc. See eg nordic skiing [2]. You don't take the same doses as bodybuilders do because your goal isn't hypertrophy, but it still helps. Or see this quote [3]

   To boost their strength is not the sole reason athletes turn to steroids, 
   Yesalis adds. "They have been taken for at least 45 years by endurance 
   athletes to recover from workouts rapidly. With steroids, a marathon runner 
   can run longer, a swimmer can do more laps and a cyclist can spend more time 
   pedaling." In sports where endurance is everything, the ability to last 
   longer during workouts and competitions confers a definite advantage.
   
   Read more at: http://phys.org/news71508517.html#jCp

Also -- and I missed this mention amidst the scrolling -- while the article mentions epo, it proceeds to discount epo, and avoids any other drugs

   Doping with EPO or blood transfusions is one way of boosting an already-high 
   VO2 max—and it’s possible that cheating may have contributed to the drop in 
   the marathon record, and could even be the “secret” that allows runners to 
   approach sub-two in the future. But Radcliffe’s numbers offer a reminder 
   that such tactics aren’t necessary to achieve boundary-breaking 
   performances: Her VO2 max was already exceptional when she was a teenager, 
   and it stayed at a relatively constant level throughout her career.

Steroids and other drugs help, as demonstrated by baseball, basketball, football, hockey, powerlifting, olympic lifting, bodybuilding, tour-de-france cycling, time-trial cycling, cross-country skiing, nordic skiing, judo, boxing, and mma. Every athletic endeavor that has been seriously tested has found record-breakers using steroids. The point isn't that having an off-the-scale vo2 max isn't required. That's table stakes. Steroids plus other drugs take that exceptional vo2 max and turn it inhuman.

[2] http://www.steroids.info/2012/10/09/documentary-looks-at-ste...

[3] http://phys.org/news71508517.html

*catabolism: the breakdown of complex molecules in living organisms to form simpler ones, together with the release of energy; destructive metabolism.

Incredible.

I'm nowhere near the level where these people compete, and my thing is road biking, not running, but I did notice the best day for a ride up and down the hills is: low temperature, dense clouds, maybe even light intermittent rain (barring any traction issues in corners).

BTW, strength-based sports also take a toll on the body. Maybe even more than long distance running. You can keep doing long races well into advanced age, whereas weight lifting after 40 is a bit sketchy.

Always found that strange as well. I've always loved being a runner in Seattle because its generally cool, cloudy, and often light rain. To me that's the perfect weather for a run since it prevents you from overheating or dehydrating as quickly, and, in my experience, the sun tires you out much quicker. I've always been confused about the fact that you see by far the most people out running on a hot, sunny day. Every one of them seems to be sweating bullets.

Because sunny weather improves peoples mood, just look around you when it's raining and cold, people are glum and looking down a lot, while on a sunny day you see plenty of people smiling. Good mood means you feel better and perform better.

Second, your muscles are already somewhat warm, so you feel powerful right from the start instead of having to warm up for ages before you're ready for top performance.

Also, your training or just going for a run is not at the same intensity as running a marathon as a race. You run shorter distances or lower intensity, meaning the stable body temperature at marathon pace and distance is a cooling body at training pace at the same outside temperature.

People like to sweat and believe sweating is the key to a good workout. When it is hot, you sweat easily. Most people who love to exercise when it is sunny and hot aren't going out for 20 mile runs.

Anyone into running will tell you their favorite days are overcast, cool, and even a little drizzle doesn't hurt. Hell, my favorite time to run is the winter.