Pinterest Raises $367M at $11B valuation(techcrunch.com) |
Pinterest Raises $367M at $11B valuation(techcrunch.com) |
Down-voters rejoice, but I couldn't care less about pinterest and what it offers. Maybe I'm getting old or maybe being a parent gives me a different perspective, but 11B for nicely arranged list of photos is idiotic.
I'm sure it makes a lot of business sense to the investors, which is the really sad part of it all.
The state of the world seems to show that the vast majority of people, even the smart ones, don't really get it yet. But they will, sooner or later the elephant in the room will be impossible to ignore. Let's hope it won't be too late then.
The issue is this: the world doesn't need more 'innovation' - we've already innovated enough to the point of being on the verge, all in the name of 'products' and profit.
If articles like 'California has 1 year left of water' doesn't sound alarm bells then take a look around - these kind of news are all over the world.
Our only hope out of this is to apply what we already know and 'un-inovate' ourselves so that our children can have a chance of survival.
Not for the sake of profit, but for the sake of future generations.
And no, the governments, politicians and the like won't do it, they can't, they don't create the world - we do, the creators, the innovators.
It is our responsibility to switch focus and really look at how we can apply our knowledge to the real world 'problems'.
Pinterest's long term value (50+ years) is zero in my opinion, even though it might create a nice bubble in the short term.
I feel the opposite when I think about Pinterest. My immediate reaction here is "yeah, makes sense." I guess it must stem from my marketing agency days. I had SO MANY clients begging me to get them into Pinterest ads when they released. I also sit at home and see how much time my wife spends on the site and how dedicated she is to discovery through the app, especially as she makes many purchasing decisions after seeing things she likes pinned, from food to furniture.
Seems like a no-brainer that this one is going to end up crossing the IPO finish line at some point, and I would imagine they have bigger and better plans moving forward. I barely think they've scratched the surface of profitability.
Every bride uses Pinterest (and now most wedding vendors and bloggers).
My mother-in-law uses it every day to plan all her home remodeling projects and she's 60-something.
Any study covering all the brides situation to qualify that comment? I attended three weddings recently. Not one was on Pinterest, all were on email rather.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/viewers-dont-add-up-to-profit-fo...
1) Youtube isn't profitable, but it's taking more and more "hours watched" out of the TV market. Google can keep it running at break even for as long as they want, and then adjust the ad prices up very, very slightly and start making profit based on the huge audience.
2) Video watching (usually) has very little commercial intent, especially in terms of some kind of "commercial value per byte served" measure. This compares very badly to Pinterest, where a very significant amount of usage has almost direct purchase intent.
Then the investors stand to lose money.
Investing is a bet, right? If making money here were a sure thing -- e.g. if they already had the money in hand -- then they wouldn't need to raise capital.
Maybe your question is, why would anyone invest in a company without a business model, particularly at this valuation? I'm not an investor, but I'm sure part of the calculus is looking back in history towards similar companies.
On what planet is an IPO the finish line?
seriously while I appreciate your comment, none of what you've said has anything to do with any financial numbers, even to within an order of magnitude. . . it's nice that this is your reaction but don't you think an analysis of... something should enter the equation at some point? there are 3.5 billion women in the world, so you're valuing every user past and present that you've described, at $3. Why not $10 and call it 35b in revenue for a nice 110B valuation at a fair multiple of earnings.
seriously shouldn't we be looking at...something here? these numbers are literally astronomical. (as in, getting up there with the number of stars in the galaxy.)
Not every comment on HN needs to be an in depth analysis, especially when my comment is, exactly as I said, a gut reaction to a piece of news. Are the points I made anecdotal? Absolutely, but that doesn't make the meta-commentary any less valid.
Just because it makes sense in the current model doesn't mean it makes sense.
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/...
Tbh, the fact that the advertising value of a company in the first world is worth that much is kinda silly imo. However, it makes your target unclear. Is it the fact that Armenians are so poor per capita?
What's the actual substance of your complaint? Are you worried that Pinterest can buy Armenia? It can't. Are you just offended that two not-very-comparable numbers are X > Y instead of Y > X? That doesn't seem like a big deal to me.
Are you complaining that Armenians are poor? That's perhaps a big deal, but we don't know how to make poor countries not poor.
Someone gets engaged. Almost every day between that day and their wedding will be on pinterest to get great ideas on every single item / food / clothing involved.
It's like amazon referrals on steroids
Pinterest is where shopping starts for tons of young women (primarily) with money.
we are talking about ten thousand times higher than that. still on 'potential'...
For the sake of this comment let's assume that Pinterest has never had any income at all... can someone please explain what they have spent, or plan on spending, over $1B on? If there isn't a plan to spend this money, what other motivations could they have for raising so much money and why are investors still pouring it in?
The Fed has yet to raise interest rates, but may choose to this year. The end of QE has already removed some liquidity from the markets and set the dollar on a massive run which will put pressure on almost anything priced in dollars. If the Fed raises interest rates, it will sap at least some liquidity from the venture funding market (which is red hot right now).
If Pinterest can't IPO for five years because the stock market crashes in nine months and the economy turns south (almost six years since the last recession already), then ideally they'll want a cash war chest to keep up with the other giants they compete with (directly or indirectly) that are already public or are well funded.
Saying it's prudent for Pinterest to have a billion+ in cash is probably understating things.
In any business, and "startups" in general cash is king.
The money could be used to fuel acquisitions, pay early investors, or a number of things.
That leaves ~$150m from previous rounds to spend on infrastructure etc before they need to raise more in the latest round.
That is why Google is valuable. People go there with intent to buy things. Facebook has learned how to make money. Twitter has learned how to make money. Pinterest has a much much easier road than either of those did. The people investing in this round will absolutely make money.
Pinterest is what Delicious should have been, if Yahoo had any vision at all.
I can't remember a time I've purposefully clicked an ad on Facebook/Twitter. The only problem with Pinterest is that it seems plagued by duplicate content.
There are no doubt useful companies out there for Pinterest to buy, no different than there have been for Facebook, Twitter, Google, et al. over the years of their various stages of maturity.
At Pinterest's size, and given their long-term ambition to be a large, successful business... it's for all the non-obvious reasons you can't think of that a billion dollar cushion might be useful. Always raise money when you don't need it; raising it when you need it, is the worst time, you'll go begging on your knees or at a minimum will be in the weaker negotiating position.
For initial rounds with no public valuation info, you may assume 25% of the company was given away in each round.
http://i.imgur.com/OfBDZz0.png
Let me know if you want to see any specific cap tables, happy to pull those out.
Best case scenario would be: 33% * (75% angel) * (75% series A) * (75% series B) * (85% series C) * (95%^4 Series D-G) = ~10%
It could probably go down as far as 4 or 5% depending on how big option pools were and just how much dilution was in the earlier rounds.
But is it overvalued? Only time will tell
Also http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bookvalue.asp
Can't really understand why I'm downvoted for this, since all I did was state a fact.
http://www.nytimes.com/1999/10/26/business/excite-home-to-ac...
Let me check Facebook's last fiscal year.
$12.4 billion sales; $2.9 billion profit
Could Pinterest reach $5 billion in sales and $1 billion in net income based on what they're capable of in the next five or six years when it comes to traffic and the obvious monetization? Yes, and it would make the present valuation dirt cheap.
Twitter just turned on their revenue machine two years ago, and they're already at $500m a quarter. They too supposedly had questionable business potential.
Brides typically use it to decide what they should wear, what their wedding party should wear, and what decor should be used at their reception etc. See for example [1],[2]. Note that [2] has 4 million followers, for that board alone.
If it's studies you want, then something like [3] shows just how much traffic Pinterest drives: much, much more than Twitter, and second only to Facebook in terms of social sources.
It's not typically used as an organization tool in itself.
[1] https://www.pinterest.com/categories/weddings/
[2] https://www.pinterest.com/explore/wedding-ideas/
[3] http://www.businessnewsdaily.com/7356-social-media-marketing...
I can't believe you just asked me for a study based on that comment (where "every" is clearly hyperbole). Let me Google it for you (EVERYone uses Google).
Look at that ... 70% of women use it for wedding planning BEFORE EVEN GETTING ENGAGED
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/07/25/wedding-survey_n_56...
That said, they have a very large library of existing content, a large number of producers who have devoted a fairly large amount of time to Pinterest, and also... a space in which it would be hard to distinguish yourself by pure feature competition. How do you make a website that is substantially better than Pinterest at showing pictures and letting people bookmark them? If you create incrementally better search/recommendation technology, I think it would be hard to communicate your tech advantage to the average user, particularly before you develop a deep content library.
I'd say Pinterest has a few strong things in its favor: 1) it benefits from network effects, beyond anything Delicious saw; 2) people accumulate value in their use of the site, to leave is to abandon that effort; 3) they have a national (early global) brand, whereas most people never heard of Delicious 4) they dominate a demographic that is extremely valuable in line with their monetization plans, Delicious had nothing like it 5) Delicious was founded in 2003, the Pinterest scale potential in 2015 is drastically larger, with mobile opening a global audience of a billion potential users
It's also worth noting that bookmarked web sites rot, disappear, etc. Being able to visually go back and look at concepts, ideas, inspiration - is far more useful over the long haul (eg after three years of content accumulation as a user).
There have been some fairly well funded attempts to build a competitor (eg, Fab at one point tried it), but nothing really got close.
It's probably not as sticky as Facebook, but OTOH there's a lot more purchase intent.
If those numbers were declining investors wouldn't believe Pinterest could monetize their users like Twitter or Facebook.
They'd rather increase the top line (revenue) by growing the market. That means keeping it as cheap as possible for advertisers to use, while still covering their costs.
The idea is to get media buyers used to a given rate per video view, then use increases in YouTube usage to increase the total amount of money they bring in (revenue), and use economies of scale and technology change to drive costs down.
The long game for them is to build the perfect video advertising platform on YouTube, and then allow other video platforms to use it (in the same way a huge number of websites use AdSense/DoubleClick).
There's a lot of money in TV advertising. Google wants that money, and they can afford to wait another 10 years for the market to develop enough for it to happen.
But how do you know that it isn't actually 99% window-shopping and fantasy, until you actually put the theory into action?
Revenue from Pinterest however was up by 2x over the Thanksgiving weekend and on Black Friday, and up by 3.6x on Cyber Monday (as compared to a 30-day average preceding Thanksgiving). This is very telling about the power of Pinterest in driving e-commerce transactions.[1]
or
How did shoppers, who had pinned an item before purchasing the item in store, originally discover the item?
10% reported that they discovered it while searching on Pinterest.
24% discovered the item on a stranger’s Pinterest board or newsfeed.
19% discovered from a friend’s board.
7% was from a retailer’s Pinterest board.
This encompasses a total of 60% of people, who had pinned and later purchased an item, originally discovered the items on the Pinterest platform.[2][1] http://blog.piqora.com/revenue-from-pinterest-more-than-trip...
[2] http://pinnablebusiness.com/infographic-research-shows-pinte...
If Groupon were such a great business, why have the founders cashed out in each of the investment rounds?
http://www.quora.com/If-Groupon-were-such-a-great-business-w...
"But even beyond the lockup, a founder selling a significant chunk of equity can send a negative signal to the market and erode confidence."
http://www.rudebaguette.com/2012/05/22/going-public-its-comp...
"Zynga’s Mark Pincus is promising in an open letter to potential shareholders that his company will be a 'meritocracy'. Except that in his meritocracy, Pincus has created a class of stock just for himself. He’ll have 70 votes for every supershare of Zynga he owns."
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2011/12/14/zynga-s-ipo...
Do a search on Google and you'll see a thousand articles like this, all with the same theme: when insiders sell, you should run.
That's from 2010. Since then, GOOG has almost doubled in price (note that there was a stock split)[2], and they have delivered almost constant revenue and profit growth.
Diversification can be a sensible strategy for founders.
[1] http://www.marketwatch.com/story/google-co-founders-to-sell-...
[2] https://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&...
Imagine what the $11 billion one would spend to purchase Pinterest could do in other areas, such as the developing world, our inner cities, public infrastructure. That's the point. Is that up front enough and leading you in the right direction, or am I still being misleading?
Put another way, why do we value an online marketing tool at $11 billion and people efforting some real change like feeding starving children have to struggle for a meager five figure grant? And why are people here so hell-bent on feeding into it and silencing people like me who just have questions about it? Am I the only one that has ethical questions about spending my engineering career contributing to a market that values image distribution to push products and fuel consumerism at about the same order of magnitude as SpaceX?
You can look at me with a straight face and say that Pinterest deserves to be valued at $11 billion for what, its user count? Its potential to open up new revenue streams for advertisers? Same with Snapchat, same with Instagram. I feel like our priorities are broken, and that's all I'm saying, and as much as all of my comments are flirting with being grayed out, it feels pretty hopeless and depressing to be the only one, apparently.
Right, how dare I invest my life into writing software and hoping the possibilities include anything outside of selling Pepsi and Versace. My bad. What do you suggest as my new profession, bottled_poe?
Everyday it's XYZ company is raising XYZ million dollar round at X billion dollar valuation.
When the economy corrects itself later after the fracking market explodes this won't matter much.
I'd worry more about what you're doing then a company that monetizes users who look at pictures.
There are much greater problems to solve.
Doesn't this assume that the earlier investors either didn't get pro rata rights (unlikely) or didn't choose to exercise them (conceivable for later rounds)?
If a startup said they raised $10 million led by XYZ VC, that means that XYZ VC probably put in $5-7.5 million, and the rest would be filled with other investors and previous investors.
33% * (66% seed funding) * (66% angel round) * (60% series A) * (60% series B) * (70% series C) * (85% series D) * (90%^2 series E/F) * (95% series G) ~= 2.4%
Still > 2% of an 11B company isn't bad.
I wish things could be different, but without financial freedom, we are destined to build what other people deem valuable. One of the best things we can do is work with people whose values align with our own.
I suspect many here agree that Pinterest doesn't contribute greatly to the betterment of humanity. That does not mean it isn't economically valuable.
I actually think there's an argument that trying to quantify moral value in economic terms in itself morally questionable. There's room for other measurement systems outside monetary value.