The Coin Flip: A Fundamentally Unfair Proposition? (2009)(econ.ucsb.edu) |
The Coin Flip: A Fundamentally Unfair Proposition? (2009)(econ.ucsb.edu) |
The house edge for slots games is anywhere from 2% to 15%+ and is one of the worst bets you can make in the casino.
Blackjack, video poker and some bets on craps are the only times in a casino where the house edge shrinks to below 1%.
Blackjack, video poker and some bets on craps are the only
times in a casino where the house edge shrinks to below 1%.
Edward Thorp is a mathematician who did a lot of analysis about blackjack over 50 years ago.[1] He's a seminal figure in this field.
Here's one site I recall mostly because it has a memorable name: http://wizardofodds.com/
Strange dichotomy to those of us who have been to a casino. They tell you right at the games — you don't need to be an industry insider.
He also has done research on the randomness of shuffling cards: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AxJubaijQbI . Pretty cool stuff!
He tries to describe it in terms of HTHTHT. Coins do not have memory. They don't know if they've previously flipped 3 times, 4 times, or 1e308 times. If you draw from [HTHTHT..HT] randomly, you'll get 50% heads and 50% tails. Change that to [THTHTH..TH] and the answer is the same.
With precession the answer changes because it stays in the initial state longer. As the paper points our "Keller showed that in the limit of large initial velocity and largerate of spin, a vigorous flip, caught in the hand without bouncing, lands heads half the time." Keller assumed no precession.
[1] http://statweb.stanford.edu/~susan/papers/headswithJ.pdf
edit: I just saw that in the comments they point this flaw out. It gets hand waved away by the author as a "oversimplification" that he made. My opinion is that it is okay to simplify, but not to the point of being wrong. The explanation is not how probability works, at all.
I assume that was as the result of using the tossing machine, but I really thought it would not have been that frequent.
I have never had it happen on a flat surface and I must have tossed 10,000 of coins in my youth.
I'm sure I could have stood there for an hour attempting to drop a coin onto the floor and have it roll into that gap, and I would have failed.
I saw a coin land on edge once.
It's obviously not common knowledge to the person that's asking the question. :~) Thanks for the source though.
That said, the edge is not always below 1%. It varies based on the rules. Some games don't allow a surrender, for instance, which changes the edge pretty drastically.
No casino in the states of NV, CA or LA has ever informed me nor have I seen other patrons be duly made aware of the 2%-15% for the slots nor the 1% for Blackjack, Video poker or Craps.
In Nevada, I don't see any stipulation they're even required to, by the Nevada Gaming Commission. [1]
[1] LICENSING AND CONTROL OF GAMING - GENERAL PROVISIONS
For instance, it makes good business sense for a casino to advertise their 94.64% slot return since they still have an edge. You don't have to be an industry insider or close to it to learn this information, as you implied.